NBA Trade Rumors: Kyle Lowry to Orlando for Victor Oladipo & Andrew Nicholson?

We continue to examine trading Kyle Lowry, rather than losing him for nothing following this season. Today’s deal would be the most clear-cut example of sacrificing today for tomorrow (or tanking, in the vernacular) I’ve yet offered.

Jan 28, 2014; Auburn Hills, MI, USA; Detroit Pistons shooting guard Rodney Stuckey (3) is defended by Orlando Magic power forward Andrew Nicholson (44) in the second half at The Palace of Auburn Hills. Detroit 103-87. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Trade Candidates: Orlando Magic’s Victor Oladipo and Andrew Nicholson

Analysis: Oladipo is a rookie shooting guard, drafted second overall out of Indiana. Despite being slightly undersized, he’s justified that high selection, averaging over 13 points per game while starting 31 games for the rebuilding Magic. He’s quick, heady and a solid defender. Andrew Nicholson is a Canadian “tweener” (I think he’s more of an smallish Power Forward than a big SF) who’s in his second season out of St. Bonaventure. Andrew started playing hoops relatively late in life, and I think it’s fair to say he’s still catching up. He’s highly intelligent, and by all accounts a hard worker, so I like his chances of sticking in the NBA. Whether he’ll ever be a starter is debatable.

Verdict: The trade works financially to an astonishing degree, but the Machine says the Raps would “lose” 6 games, while the Magic would “win” 4 more. I’ll buy that, as the Raps would be left with a gaping hole at point guard. Even losing these two, Orlando is awash in young talent (Harkless, Vucevic, Harris, Lamb), and will grab another prize in the draft lottery. The presence of Lowry will certainly help their kids’ maturation process.

Likelihood: 5%. As an anti-tanker, I’ve got wax in my ears with most of these futuristic trades, but I admit this one piques my interest. However, much would have to change on Orlando’s end before they would sign off on this deal, as the loss of Oladipo in particular would be a shock to their fans. Kyle would have to agree to a sign-&-trade contract [h/t: reader "Guy"], so the Magic could lock him up for multiple seasons. They would need a place to dump incumbent PG Jameer Nelson, which they’ve been trying to do for some time without success. Furthermore, Orlando would love to be unencumbered by Glen Davis, and might insist upon the Raps taking him in exchange for Tyler Hansbrough and Steve Novak.

WWMD? [What will Masai do?]: This deal has a lot of moving parts, and if it’s going to happen at all, will likely need another team’s involvement. However, if anyone on the planet can make a deal as complex as this come to fruition, it’s Masai Ujiri. He has said he doesn’t want to end up “in the middle”, i.e., neither contending nor tanking, and this deal would surely achieve that goal.

OK, Raptors & Magic fans, what do you think? Let’s get a dialogue started with your Comments.

 

Topics: Orlando Magic, Toronto Raptors, Trade Rumors, Victor Oladipo

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  • Karas Soryal

    This is an awful trade. Why would the Magic trade Oladipo, who is an important part of their future, for Lowry, who will most likely leave at the end of the year. Plus, the Magic are practically a lock to get a top 3 pick in this year’s draft.

    • Newmarket_Brian

      Hi Karas:
      Note that I was very clear about saying that Orlando would want to have Lowry locked up for multiple years before agreeing to this deal. I also mentioned they would get another top pick in this year’s loaded draft. However, there is such a thing as too much young talent, or not enough veterans, depending on how you want to think of it. Orlando is almost there now.
      It’s a better deal than you are giving it credit for. That doesn’t mean I think it will happen, but if it did, both teams would improve.
      Thanks for commenting.

  • Danny Rollins

    As a magic fan this is laughable, I would break my 200 dollar phone against my 350 dollar tv if they did that trade. Raptors do not have leverage considering he is in his last year of the contract. Even if he wanted to sign and trade, it’s not worth it. You have a better chance of getting afflalo for Ross though, with maybe Nicholson as a throw in with a player on the raps to balance the trade. A rebuilding team like my orlando magics would not trade for him considering oladipo’s ceiling is through the roof. You have one heck of a pipe dream going though. Lowery should hang on and test free agency, so raptors get what they can for his expiring contract. I know he is playing good, but he isn’t worth a top 3 pick (which is what oladipo is, considering he was taken 2nd in the last draft)

    • Greg Hall

      I would like to point out the likelihood of 5%, Brian is certainly not saying this is a deal is a lock to be done and we do not even know if these two teams are talking. I would be as surprised to see this deal, however I would be more surprised to see Ross and Afflalo traded for each other. It is my understanding, that before Masai Ujiri became GM (and continued for his tenure) that Ross is untouchable (unless a magical steal of a deal materialized).

      If Lowry agrees to sign long term I also agree with Brain’s comment to Karas, sometimes it isn’t prudent to have too many young players (with another possible lottery pick). Kyle Lowry is a competitor, fighter, and wants to win no matter what, that type of attitude can go a long way in the NBA. Being the closest vote in memory to making an all-star team amongst coaches and narrowly losing out to Joe Johnson (by reputation it would seem) does hurt his stock a little however.

      I will agree with you that in the end this deal is very unlikely, as I’m not sure the Raptors would have enough veterans to absorb this type of young talent. I do not think they would want to start a rookie combo guard at point either, and I do not think Orlando would wish to part with their pick in Oladipo, but stranger things have happened at the NBA trade deadline.

    • Newmarket_Brian

      Hi Danny:
      Greg Hall has put up an admirable defense [below], so I need only add that Lowry is playing better than “good” (your word). Most pundits were shocked that he wasn’t chosen for the All-Star game, as he’s been the best point guard in the East this season. That’s a valuable asset for a rebuilding team, particularly if he’s on a multi-year sign-&-trade deal.
      Thanks for commenting.

      • Danny Rollins

        I would have to disagree with you. As is being reported within fansided, everyone on the magic are available…. Except oladipo. Lowry’s value is not comparable to oladipo’s upside . Problem is, even the raptors don’t want to pay him big money, so, he is being overvalued by you.

        • Newmarket_Brian

          Hi again:
          I have no problem with you disagreeing with me, and I’m sure you’d offer me the same courtesy. I don’t agree that Lowry’s value is not comparable to Oladipo’s upside. Lowry has proven he’s a top-rank player; that’s worth a ton of potential.
          I don’t know where you get the idea the “raptors don’t want to pay him big money”. If you have a source, please let us in on the secret. I venture to say I’m a LOT closer to the Raps than you are, and I can assure you there’s no reluctance to spend money. They are drowning in dough – they just need to find the right people to spend it on.
          Thanks for the follow-up comment.

  • Darius

    This site sucks.. this trade will never happen, is way way way in favor of the Raptors and is clearly biased. Almost as bad as the Kenneth Faried and Andre Miller trade I read about earlier this week on this blog. Garbage

    • Darius

      Sorry for being rude, but use your brain!

      • Newmarket_Brian

        If the site sucks, don’t come back.
        I will say to you what I said to Magic fan Danny: you are BADLY underestimating how well Kyle Lowry is playing. If it weren’t for the contract situation, I doubt Masai Ujiri would spend any time at all considering trading the true Eastern Conference All-Star point guard. He certainly wouldn’t deal Kyle for the last few years of Andre Miller and Kenneth Faried’s occasional highlights. Your reaction to that deal is way off.
        As for the Magic trade, it’s actual production vs. future. I gave it a 5% likelihood, mainly because I don’t think Orlando could stomach giving up Oladipo, for which I don’t blame them at all.

        • Darius

          No one wants a mediocre player with an expiring contract! Especially for these obviously one-sided deals which favor the Raptors

          • Drey41

            @ Darius: Lowry, the so-called “mediocre” player, & Co destroyed the Nuggets two weeks ago!!! Needless to say, that they wiped the floor with wanna-be-all-star-players like Kenneth Faried.

            That being said, a more probable trade than the aforementioned suggestion is: Lowry for Monroe.

            Oh yeah one more thing, If you can’t take the HEAT than I suggest you leave the forum and take your trash-talk business elsewhere!

          • Darius

            HA! No one wants Kyle Lowry and his expiring contract! If you trade him, you MIGHT be able to get a second rounder, and if you don’t he will be fleeing to greener pastures and getting out of your terrible organization

          • Newmarket_Brian

            Darius:
            When you’re already in a hole, stop digging.

          • Matt Flores

            I just have one question; What value does a nearly 28 year old, unmarketable lowry bring to an organically rebuilding Orlando Magic team? Keep in mind a 28 year old aaron afflalo is a topic of trade discussions for the reason of his relatively escalated age.

          • Newmarket_Brian

            Hi Matt:
            Hmmm…I’ve attempted to answer that question several times [above]. I admire what Orlando is trying to do, but you can’t rebuild forever, nor can you simply stockpile kids ad infinitum. A winning team is a collection of critical elements, one of which is a veteran point guard. You can develop kids on the wing, but getting a battle-hardened successful PG is essential to young players’ development and confidence.
            Why do you regard Lowry as “unmarketable”? Have you seen him play this year? He showed flashes of brilliance last season, and he’s been consistently excellent since the Rudy Gay trade. His value to Orlando would be enormous.
            Final thought: Lowry came to Toronto with a reputation as a coach-killer, but we’ve seen no evidence of that.
            Thanks for commenting.
            P.S. I like the way Afflalo has improved his game, but I wouldn’t trade for him.

          • Matt Flores

            Brian, I agree with your opinion on the value of a seasoned point guard on a developing young team, however, Jameer nelson already serves that role and is/ will be exponentially cheaper than lowry. From what I gather through observation, Rob Hennigan is not concerned with winning this year, rather showcasing his veterans for a possible trade and keeping hometown favorites “Nelson, Baby” in the fold to sell tickets to the casual fan. Lowry is a good player but is foreign to Orlando and anyone outside of toronto, houston and memphis, hence my unmarketable label. Lowry serves no purpose on the Magic roster, but is a fine addition to a team hoping to compete in the immediate future

          • Newmarket_Brian

            Matt, you raised my eyebrows when I read that Hennigan wants to keep Nelson & Davis around to sell tickets. All I’ve been hearing about is Orlando’s desire to dump these two. If you’re right, then this trade’s likelihood plummets to zero. I had imagined Hennigan saying to Ujiri: “If you want Victor, you have to take the deadweight contracts off my hands”. So much for that, I guess.

          • Newmarket_Brian

            Hi Drey:

            We covered a Monroe-for-Lowry trade on this site already – did you miss it?

            http://raptorsrapture.com/2014/02/03/nba-trade-rumors-kyle-lowry-detroit-greg-monroe/

            Please let me know in that post’s Comments if you like the way I’ve broken down the deal.
            Thanks for commenting, and please come back.

  • KillerKali

    there is no chance in hell orlando trades oladipo breh

    • Newmarket_Brian

      Hi Kali:
      I agree it’s highly unlikely, but not out of the question. General Managers float trade ideas like this to each other all the time; once in a great while, the other guy says Yes.
      Thanks for commenting.

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