Orlando Magic (10-16) at Toronto Raptors (18-6): 3 keys to victory

Dec 10, 2014; Orlando, FL, USA; Orlando Magic head coach Jacque Vaughn talks with guard Elfrid Payton (4) and forward Tobias Harris (12) against the Washington Wizards during the second half at Amway Center. Washington Wizards defeated the Orlando Magic 91-89. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

An improving Orlando Magic squad visits the Air Canada Centre for the second and last time this season. Their first trip saw the Toronto Raptors scratch out a come-from-behind victory after trailing badly into the fourth quarter. The Magic are perhaps two seasons behind the Raps in their rebuild, but there’s little doubt in my mind the Florida boys have some serious young talent on board, and may prove to be one of the few cases where tanking actually works. The Eastern Conference falls off so badly after the top five teams that Orlando grabbing a playoff spot this season is entirely possible.

Combo guard Victor Oladipo has probably the highest ceiling on the squad. He’s their point, but I suspect they would love to find a Kyle Lowry-like distributor to man that spot, so Oladipo could play pick-&-pop, or use his speed to penetrate. They aren’t suffering at shooting guard, as Evan Fournier has dismissed the doubters (including me) with solid scoring. He’s barely adequate as a defender, and I can see him being more useful off the bench in future. Tobias Harris at small forward averages over 18 points per game. A big 3, with considerable quickness and skill, he will give Terrence Ross all our man can handle. While Channing Frye hurt the Raptors from beyond the arc in the prior game, I don’t think he’s the answer for them long-term at power forward. If I were coach Jacque Vaughn, I’d be auditioning Maurice Harkless, Andrew Nicholson or even Kyle O’Quinn for the gig. Those talented kids are being wasted on the bench. However, there’s no question about the centre spot, where Nikola Vucevic will hold the job for years. He can score low on the block or with a mid-range jumper, rebound, set picks – much trouble.

Their guards off the bench are crazy-haired rookie (Lucas Nogueira’s brother?) Elfrid Payton, whose shooting isn’t NBA-grade, and journeyman Luke Ridnour. Prized high draft pick Aaron Gordon has a broken foot, so the Raps won’t see him until April in Orlando.

Toronto is on the second night of a back to back, and can’t afford to take this team for granted. That said, the Raps will still emerge with a victory if they…:

(1)…work the ball on offense. I’m usually an advocate of quick hitting, but not against this team. The Magic, near the league’s bottom in offensive rebounding, are often “one and done”. As a result, they retreat to sound defensive formation most of the time, so odd-man attacks are rare. If all five of our guys touch the ball frequently, we can find open looks.

(2)…work on Vucevic. While he’s a sound rebounder, he’s not a rim protector. He had 2 foul-outs in 4 games in November, one of which was our victory in Orlando. The Magic are deep elsewhere in their lineup, but don’t have much backup for Nik. Dewayne Dedmon may be a factor one day, but not yet.

(3)…get contributions from everyone. The Raps are the second-highest scoring team in the NBA, yet our team’s highest ranking individual point-getter is Lowry at #18. Kobe Bryant is #3, and Carmelo Anthony is #6, while their teams are circling the drain. Balanced scoring works.

Orlando just ended Atlanta’s 9-game win streak, so they are in form. Regardless, I think we can outscore them by a 106-102 count.