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Dwane Casey’s dilemma – SOLVED! How Raptors PT will be allocated in ’15-’16 [Part 2 of 2]

By Brian Boake

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As we discussed in Part 1 of this double post, the Toronto Raptors have too many players. Perhaps that’s a slightly flippant manner in which to express the problem Dwane Casey faces next season, namely, ensuring sufficient playing time [PT] on his deep roster to keep all, or most, of his players happy.

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Mar 23, 2014; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Raptors guard Terrence Ross (31) takes a shot as Atlanta Hawks forward DeMarre Carroll (5) defends during the first half at the Air Canada Centre. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

Let’s look at “lost” minutes, i.e., those provided last season by now ex-Raptors. Amir Johnson is a Celtic; his 26.4 MPG [Minutes Per Game] are up for grabs. Greivis Vasquez, now a Buck, played 24.3, and new Laker Sweet Lou Williams 25.2. The other departees played negligible amounts, except for Tyler Hansbrough’s 14.3. So that’s just over 90 minutes to be backfilled, out of the 240 (48 minutes times 5 players) available PG.

For the past few seasons, DeMar DeRozan has averaged around 36.5 MPG of PT. Jonas Valanciunas actually saw his PT diminish last season, to 26.2. Kyle Lowry’s did as well, to 34.5. I doubt those three will see much change.

Last season’s starting small forward, Terrence Ross, received 25.5 MPG. Whether TRoss has lost his job to DeMarre Carroll is debatable, but what isn’t at issue is Carroll’s starting role. If we assume our highest-paid player will receive 32 MPG (a number in line with his PT in his two Atlanta seasons), most of that will come from Amir, and some from TRoss. Regardless, we’ve just filled over a third of our “missing” minutes. Bismack Biyombo saw his PT drop in Charlotte. He’ll need to show something offensively in order to get 15 MPG in Toronto. Cory Joseph enjoyed a healthy spike last season in San Antonio, to 18.3. He should be able to maintain that usage. Luis Scola may have serious difficulty getting the 20+ he enjoyed in Indiana. I’d be surprised if the veteran Argentinian got to 14.

That leaves 11 MPG for the rookies. My guess is Delon Wright will get most or all of those, which leaves Norman Powell, Axel Toupane, et al, plus non-rookies Bruno Caboclo and Lucas Nogueira without a role. Mississauga 905, here they come.

Before I get inundated with angry Comments, let me point out I’m aware this analysis is flawed, or at least incomplete. For example, if TRoss is indeed penciled in for the bench, his usage will drop by perhaps 8 MPG. Also, I don’t know what coach is going to do about power forward. Should Patrick Patterson look forward to more PT, or will Dwane Casey use a committee system? James Johnson’s PT tumbled dramatically in the playoffs, from 19 MPG to 6. If that’s his future, someone else (Michale Kyser? Ronald Roberts?) will get a chance. Should JJ get cranky, as he did in his first Raptors go-round, GM Masai Ujiri won’t hesitate to move him. Malcontents are not welcome.

That last sentence is the crux of the matter. Whether a player is happy with his minutes doesn’t really matter; what does is that he’s not unhappy. Training camp and pre-season will be fraught with tension, as there are many questions to be answered. Coach Casey is going to be challenged like never before.

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