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Can Raptors afford Kevin Durant in ’16-’17 season?

By Brian Boake

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Like a moth to a flame, I can’t stay away from the topic of Kevin Durant becoming a Toronto Raptor. While I may get burned, I’m going to take a run at what KD might cost, and how his breathtaking salary (which I’ll guess at) would affect the entire team’s payroll.

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As we all know, the NBA’s salary cap is on the launch pad, and the countdown has already begun. The salary cap for the 2015-2016 season has been set at $70M; note I’m rounding all dollar estimates. [20-second timeout: I’ve seen slightly lower figures published, but this one is official, and it’s satisfactory for our purposes. Since we’re forced to discuss the Collective Bargaining Agreement [CBA] in this post, be warned that wretched document is filled with exceptions, and exceptions to exceptions, stretching out beyond the horizon. Handle with care.]

Mar 21, 2014; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Raptors guard DeMar DeRozan (10) goes up and scores as he is fouled by Oklahoma City Thunder forward Kevin Durant (35) at Air Canada Centre. The Thunder beat the Raptors 119-118 in double overtime. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports

More importantly for this discussion is the cap number of $89M for ’16’-17, the year Durant will be on the market. The Raptors currently have $42M guaranteed to four players (Lowry, Joseph, Carroll, Patterson total almost $40M, with Wright & Powell the balance), with other conditional contracts adding another $30M. So we’re at $72M without breaking a sweat. How much will Durant cost? I could cop out and say who the hell knows, but I won’t. If DeMarre Carroll costs $15M, surely KD is worth twice that. Let’s say $30M per season on a 4-year deal. He’s making just over $20M in his final year in OKC, and an MVP winner (and 4-time runner-up) in the prime of his career is going to get paid.

In ’16-’17, by adding KD, we’re already over the cap, unless we toss some of those conditional deals overboard. For example, DeMar DeRozan has a player option. If he plays in ’15-’16 to the standard he’s established the last two seasons, he’s surely going to opt out and push for a hefty raise. Do we want DD to walk for nothing, in the hope that KD is going to climb aboard? Certainly not, because KD wants to win. The last thing he’d be interested in would be a Raptors team denuded of its best players.

And that’s the trap – if we strip down the roster so that KD can get his monster payday, we won’t have anybody to play with him. We’ll be like the New York Knicks with Carmelo Anthony, or the Lakers with Kobe – a team with a superstar surrounded by scrubs.

This topic has acquired a life of its own, and is trying to squirm away from me. Give me another day or so to mull on this, and I hope I can put forward a solution. In the meantime, if you can figure out how to maintain the core of our roster, and sign KD, please let me know how in the Comments.

Next: Durant visits Toronto - has recruiting begun?

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