Raptors at Denver Nuggets: Preview & 3 keys to victory
By Brian Boake
The Raptors have had little success over the years in Denver. To keep their 11-game winning streak alive, they must take down the Nuggets.
In their only meeting of the season to date, the Toronto Raptors stumbled badly at home against a poor Denver Nuggets squad. The Raptors lost by a point, but they should have won by double digits. Anyway, it’s payback time in the Mile High City.
The Nuggets were expected to flounder this season, and they have. A playoff seed isn’t happening when you’re sporting an 18-30 record, but there are reasons for optimism among long-suffering Nuggets fans. Sweet-shooting Will Barton is receiving a lot of support for Most Improved Player (he’d get my vote), and Danilo Gallinari drains buckets from everywhere. He’s a mobile forward I’d like to have, and he’s only one of Denver’s many young European players. Adding to their international flavour is Emanuel Mudiay, who starts at point guard after being the #7 selection in the June 2015 draft. Mudiay was born in the Congo, and got his pro ball start in China. This roster looks like Raptors West.
Kenneth Faried isn’t generating the excitement he did a few seasons ago. If I were Nuggets coach Mike Malone (son of the Raptors’ first coach, Brendan), I’d bring The Manimal off the bench and give Jusuf Nurkic the start at power forward (20-second timeout: I know Nurkic is listed as a centre, and Nikola Jokic has been starting there. I don’t care; I’d love to see if a Twin Towers pairing would work. They are both mobile, and can shoot. Why not?)
I usually discuss the starters first, then the bench, but this Nuggets team doesn’t roll that way. Good for them, say I – they are attempting a quick rebuild using young players, and playing everyone similar minutes just might work.
The Nuggets’ biggest problem is their defense. A hypothetical result for every game for them would be a 104.2 to 100.2 loss (I said it was hypothetical – I’ve taken their average points scored, then factored their plus/minus). The Raptors, by comparison, win 101.6 to 96.8. In other words, the Raptors allow 7.4 fewer points than the Nuggets per game [PG], a huge differential. Toronto’s offensive margin is only 1.4 over Denver.
The Raptors can’t just show up and collect an easy win. The Nuggets beat the Golden State Warriors a few weeks ago. However, the Nuggets’ defense is leaking. They are 4-6 recently, and have allowed a boatload of points. The Raptors can win in thin air if they…:
- …stay out of foul trouble. Unlike the Pistons, where utilizing Hack-an-Andre is a sound tactic, the Nuggets will hurt you from the free-throw line. The Raptors are third in makes at 20.6 PG, but the Nuggets are eighth with 18.7. Besides, they make only 43.4% of their field-goal attempts, a very poor number. There’s no need to foul.
- …score in the paint. The Nuggets defend well against the 3-ball, allowing only 25.9%.
- …run isos for DeMar DeRozan. So what else is new? Gary Harris is starting at shooting guard. Unless Harris has rapidly advanced his defensive skills when I wasn’t looking, DD can take this guy almost at will.
Next: Alternate 5-man units for Raptors
I’d question whether rah-rah speeches about revenge will make much difference to the Raptors. They are professionals, and will defeat the Nuggets. Toronto 109-Denver 99.