Raptors, the 2016 NBA draft & DeMar DeRozan: what to do

The Raptors have lots of draft picks coming up – is that truly a good thing?

The Toronto Raptors are chock-full of young prospects, and that situation seems likely to continue this summer. The Raptors have two first-round draft selections, their own and the worse of Denver and the New York Knicks’. As of this writing, and using Hoops Rumors excellent reverse standings table as our guide, we can take note of a few things:

1. Denver’s right to flip picks with the Knicks is moot and likely to remain so, as Denver has a considerably worse record. The Knicks are on course to join the Nuggets in the lottery. If that happens, and if the ping-pong balls don’t cough up an odds-against result, the Raptors will be drafting around #12. Finally a pay-off for dumping Andrea Bargnani.
2. Toronto’s fifth-best record in the NBA translates to the #26 pick. In a weak draft such as this year’s, the likelihood of selecting a player ready to perform on the world’s biggest stage borders on non-existent.
3. How much player development do the Raptors want to undertake?

Let’s look at the last two years’ draft results, when the Raptors enjoyed the #20 pick both times. In 2014, the Raptors shocked Planet Hoops by selecting the unknown Bruno Caboclo. Fran Fraschilla’s deathless description of the skinny Brazilian as being “two years away from being two years away” is proving accurate. Bruno is barely making a dent in the D-League. Last year, the Raptors selected Delon Wright, then traded Greivis Vasquez and used the pick gained to take in Norman Powell. In limited glimpses, neither man has looked like an NBA player. (N.B. The Vasquez trade also returned the Milwaukee Bucks’ 2017 first-rounder…another asset to be moved.)

We fans should not be disappointed or deterred at this state of affairs. Precious few rookies are ready to play meaningful minutes in the NBA, and the Raptors enjoy the luxury of not needing to force-feed their kids’ development at the highest level. Let Philadelphia do that.

The question remains, though – what should Masai Ujiri do with this potential surfeit of young players? As those of you who read me regularly know, I’ve been packaging up a 2016 draft pick (yes, even the lottery one) with every Trade Proposal I’ve made for a power forward. I haven’t utilized the 2017 selections, but those are certainly in play for the right return.

Here’s the wild card in the deck – what decision will DeMar DeRozan take after this season? That he will opt out of his contract’s final year is a certainty, where he’ll go next, if anywhere, is unclear. His ties to Toronto and to the Raptors are strong. DeMar is a loyal fellow, but he can’t be expected to stick around unless two conditions are met: he’s paid a competitive stipend, and he believes the Raptors are in the championship mix. Masai can make the money work, I hope. What’s more important is DeMar’s conviction about his team being ready to win it all.

If DeMar were somehow injected with truth serum, I suspect he’d reveal grave doubts about the Raptors being a championship contender given the team’s weakness at the 4-spot. What if Masai brings a Zach Randolph or Thaddeus Young to town before the trade deadline? Now the Raptors are prepared for a deep playoff run, and if this year isn’t magical, maybe next season will be.

So DeMar huddles with his advisors this summer – what can my incumbent team offer? Hmmm….a bosom friend in Kyle Lowry, plus a bunch more teammates I like as players and people, a supportive coach and GM, great fans and city, money and a commitment to winning as exemplified in the acquisition of an excellent power forward. Plus my family likes it here. Why would I leave?

The Raptors let the trade deadline slip past last February without action, and performed an ignominious playoff bellyflop. Let’s hope Masai doesn’t stand pat this time. Throw those draft picks into trades, Masai. They might tip the balance in favour of a power forward deal, which in turn should convince DeMar he doesn’t need to go anywhere else.