Raptors Will Need an Offensive Resurgence to Clinch the Series
The Raptors need to find their offense to close out the Pacers and move on in the playoffs. Here are some problems, and solutions.
Masai Ujiri, the President and General Manager of the Toronto Raptors, was standing outside the home locker room in a euphoric state at the end of game five. He just witnessed his team complete the largest comeback victory in franchise history to take a 3-2 lead in their first round series against the Indiana Pacers.
Toronto entered the fourth quarter trailing 77-90 and had been behind by as much as seventeen points in the contest. Frank Vogel elected to start the final quarter with a lineup that did not feature Paul George, George Hill or Monta Ellis. The Pacers’ reserves allowed the Raptors back into the game and perhaps more importantly, presented the crowd at the Air Canada Centre a chance to get raucous.
The Raptors have relied heavily on being able to take advantage of the Pacers bench units in the series to earn their
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three wins. Through five games, the Pacers
have played forty-eight minutes
with Monta Ellis, Paul George and George Hill off the court. In that time they have scored 0.83 points per possession and have surrendered 1.14 points per possession to Toronto. For reference: The Philadelphia 76ers ranked last in the league scoring 0.96 ppp and the Los Angeles Lakers ranked last giving up 1.09 ppp.
After kicking away game five on the road, there was a great deal of scrutiny placed on Frank Vogel’s lineup decisions. It is now highly probably we see Vogel adjust his rotations to have at least one of George, Ellis or Hill on the floor at all times. The Pacers have outscored the Raptors in the minutes where at least one of them is playing.
With Toronto’s biggest strength in the first round (their depth) conceivably getting neutralized, they will need a boost from their offense to win one of the next two games. Scoring the ball has been a struggle in this series for the Eastern Conference’s second seed. They are scoring almost seven (6.9) fewer points per hundred possessions in the first round compared to the regular season.
What caused this drop in offensive production for the Raptors? For starters, the Pacers have two defenders in George Hill and Paul George who possess all the physical tools required to impede Lowry and DeRozan respectively. Both Hill and George have the combination of size and lateral quickness to stay in front of the Raptors starting back-court and prevent them from getting any easy looks. The Raptors’ dynamic duo has a combined usage percentage of 52.1% in the series and making it difficult for them to generate quality offense will slow down the entire team.
It has not been just the opposing defense however that is hampering Toronto; they are also proverbially shooting themselves in the foot on offense. The Raptors three point stroke has abandoned them in the postseason as they are shooting a paltry 26.4% from beyond the arc. More importantly they are hurting themselves by shooting 26-93 or 27.9% on open and wide open three pointers.
The team’s three point struggles unsurprisingly parallel the shooting woes of Kyle Lowry. The starting point guard is shooting 6-22 or 27.2% on uncontested three point shots. Lowry’s offensive impact has been largely non-existent in the series, save for the fourth quarters of games two, three and five (all wins).
Lowry should, and probably will improve on his outside shooting but he also has to make good decisions when he has the ball. In the two losses he has a total of twelve assists and nine turnovers, while in the three wins he totaled twenty two assists and only four turnovers. Lowry has gotten into trouble in the series when he pushes the ball to try and play with pace and tries to force an action instead of taking what the defense gives him.
In the first half of game four, Kyle Lowry pushed the ball up the court quickly on nearly every possession. It made the team play at an unfamiliar and frantic pace which caused them to turn the ball over eleven times in the half.
The decision on whether to push the pace on offense is a tricky one for Toronto. On one hand it gives them more possessions where DeRozan will be guarded by the player he was defending on the previous possession and not Paul George. Conversely, the players have to demonstrate patience and realize that they do not have to get up quick shot just because they are playing at a quicker pace.
In the half court, the Raptors can help themselves offensively by attacking the Pacers’ weaker defenders more often. In the fourth quarter of game five, Toronto did a good job of exploiting the rookie Myles Turner’s lack of awareness on defense by constantly forcing him to guard against the pick and roll. This action was even more rewarding because Turner’s defensive partner on most almost all those plays was Monta Ellis.
They would also be well served giving the ball to Valanciunas in the post every time he is matched up against Turner. Jonas Valanciunas has the size and strength to back the rookie down and push him right under the basket. This will compel Indiana to send a second defender to help down on the block, creating an advantageous situation for Toronto. One thing of note on this strategy is; Valanciunas has yet to show that he can consistently navigate a double team and make a quick pass to the perimeter.
DeMar DeRozan’s return to form for game five was a giant step in getting his team back on track offensively. He will need to continue to produce the rest of the way and hope his close friend Kyle Lowry joins. The 2016 playoff Raptors have yet to fully showcase their offensive prowess and game six would be an ideal time to do so.
[All data courtesy of nba.com/stats except where noted]