The Serge Ibaka dilemma: what Raptors should do

Serge Ibaka is one free agent sure to be in high demand this summer. Should the Raptors make a concerted effort to bring him back?

The Toronto Raptors have many issues to grapple with during the off-season. Near the top of the priority list is the status of free agent PF/C Serge Ibaka.

There are two parts of the equation to consider. The first can be expressed simply: should he receive a contract offer from the team? Assuming the answer is Yes (and we’ll consider both sides), question two is less binary: how much money should he be offered, and over how many years?

Ibaka became a Raptor on February 14 in time to play 23 regular season and 10 playoff games. His sojourn was neither a revelation nor a disappointment. Serge’s numbers were almost exactly what they were as a member of the Orlando Magic. In other words, he had little difficulty fitting in with our team, and produced at both ends of the floor.

Let’s figure it out

As always, my thinking when a conversation swings towards “Should we move this guy out?” begins with an evaluation of who’s behind the player on the depth chart. The answers aren’t appealing. Patrick Patterson is notionally second. He’s a free agent coming off a bad season whose future as a Raptor is exceedingly murky. After 2-Pat sits Pascal Siakam, a proven performer in the D-League.

So far, retaining Serge looks better than the in-house options.

How’s Ibaka’s career arc? He’ll be 28 when next season starts, and has proven himself to be a sturdy and consistent contributor almost from Day 1 of his professional career in OKC. He is a noteworthy shotblocker, though his numbers are down from his league-leading seasons of 2011-12 & ’12-13. Serge ranks 40th all time; with an average number of blocks next season, he should blow past a number of retired players into the low 30s.

The data are hard to decipher as to whether a power forward starts to slip as he ages. I think Serge is likely to continue as a front-line player. He doesn’t carry extra weight, nor has he absorbed a lot of bashing, despite the blocks, in his career. His tendency is to shoot rather than drive to the hoop, which minimizes contact and injuries, though I suspect it drives his coaches crazy.

Serge is a 6’10” athlete who possesses a reliable jump shot with range to beyond the 3-point arc. That skill alone will keep him in the league.

Wrapping it up

We’d like to see more ball movement from Serge. The offense grinds to a halt when he gets the ball far too often. Perhaps familiarity with his teammates will unstick the ball. The Raptors don’t need another Rudy Gay.

And yet…when the time had arrived for Rudy to move on, Masai Ujiri was able to extract value for him. The same thing could happen with Ibaka. Let’s assume he’s agreeable to a 3-year, $60 million deal. If his presence clogs the offense to a degree which outweighs his other skills, he can be traded.

So there it is – bring Serge back. He’s a low-risk, high-reward player who fills a giant hole and can keep the Raptors out of rebuild hell.