Valanciunas and Raptors’ future: is he in or out?

In light of the Raptors’ failed playoff run, all roster spots are under consideration. Will Valanciunas be our starting center next season?

Jonas Valanciunas was bounced around a lot during the just-ended playoffs. He was the starting centre for most games, but came off the bench several times when Serge Ibaka was chosen as the sole big man in a small-ball lineup.

Ibaka is an Unrestricted Free Agent [UFA], so his future as a Raptor is very much up in the air. By contrast, JV can’t go anywhere except in a trade. He’s got two more seasons at around $16 million per, with a player option in 2019-20.

JV: too slow for future use?

In the current environment of despair surrounding the Raptors, there’s been talk about dumping JV as part of a major rebuild. (I haven’t considered who he could be dumped to, so let’s set that matter aside for now.) The consensus of opinion among those who want to see JV gone is that he’s an anachronism in today’s NBA. Of what value is a slow-footed back-to-the-basket center when every winning team is playing pace & space?

There’s merit to this position. Versatile players have always been, and will always be, more valuable than specialists. The question I have about JV is simple: has he been typecast, or is he capable of being more than he’s been permitted to be thus far in his career?

I don’t want to be accused of vagueness. If Valanciunas is going to carve out a larger offensive role, and thus keep himself on the floor, he will need to prove he can shoot from further out.

There’s another step needed before JV can be unveiled as the new Channing Frye (I wish!). Dwane Casey has to concur. If our coach thinks that “5-out”, for example, isn’t a concept he wants to inculcate into the Raptors’ offense, JV won’t have much chance to show his skills.

Never stop developing your skills

Jonas has been working with assistant coach (head coach in waiting?) Rex Kalamian on his outside shooting. I’d like to see more imaginative play-calling next season, and hopefully JV firing away from outside becomes an element of that.

I can’t leave a discussion of Valanciunas’ future without mentioning defense. While he’s not the quickest big man ever, he’s not the slowest either. He ranks eighth among NBA centers in rebounds per 48 minutes, which almost by itself renders him an essential member of the rotation. JV’s shot-blocking isn’t satisfactory, and he needs to improve his footwork and recognition/reaction time. He’s just turned 25, so further upgrades can and should be expected.

Money talks, often loudly

Stats aside, hard cold cash will affect JV’s future as a Raptor. Both centermen behind him, Lucas Nogueira and Jakob Poeltl, cost a fraction of what he earns. Should the Raptors be unable to retain their key free agents, namely Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka, the brains trust may decide a rebuild has been forced upon them. If that’s the state of the nation by the end of June, watch for most members of the ancien regime (including JV, Dwane Casey and even DeMar DeRozan) to be on the move.

I suppose JV could be dumped as part of a cost-cutting exercise in order to bring back all the UFAs. I view this possibility as least likely of all.

In sum, I don’t want to see JV out the door, because I think he’s got more to offer than we’ve seen so far. If I’m wrong about that, or if his coach won’t allow him to display any new-found skills, then he needs to be traded.

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