Grading both talent level and contract situation. We took a look at the Toronto Raptors roster and ranked every contract from best to worst.
Note: This article will exclude assessments of the team’s “cap holds”: Fred VanVleet, Lucas Nogueira and Lorenzo Brown.
Starting with Toronto’s contracts that “missed the cut” (contracts for players where it is too premature to judge them as “valuable” or “harmful”), then progressing from the best deals to the worst ones, we will explore the different reasons why some contracts are better than others.
All Raptors contract numbers from “Toronto Raptors Team Payroll” (basketball-reference.com) and all other salary information from hoopshype.com.
Missed The Cut
Of the team’s 12 contracts for next season, two deals classify as “too premature to rank”.
A. SF Alfonzo McKinnie
Contract: 1 year – $1.3M (18/19)
For this article, Alfonzo McKinnie’s NBA role last season was just too small to judge his contract appropriately.
As detailed in this post by Jordan Skuse, “McKinnie played a [grand] total of 53 minutes” with the Toronto Raptors in 2017/18.
In addition, his contract for next season stands at a non-guaranteed $1,378,242. Furthermore, the Toronto Raptors have until July 20th to decide on his future. They can either keep him or release him and not have to pay his $1.37 million dollar contract.
For what it’s worth, McKinnie did average about 14 points and 7 rebounds in the G-League last season. In theory, this shows McKinnie may crack the Raptors roster if he improves in other areas this offseason.
However, for now, thinking about McKinnie’s situation for next year is merely speculation. Until July 20th comes around, and his future with Toronto is decided, it seems unnecessary to include him in any ranking of the Toronto Raptors contracts for 2018/19.
B. SG Malachi Richardson
Contract: 1 year + 1 (Team Option) — $1.5M (18/19), $2.5M (19/20)
Malachi Richardson, like McKinnie, has had only a small taste of the NBA in a Toronto Raptors uniform.
On February 11th 2018, Malachi Richardson saw his only NBA minutes with Toronto so far, playing 4:42 seconds of basketball against the Charlotte Hornets, going one for two and finishing -12 (according to Richardson’s game log summary on basketball-reference.com).
Again, due to small sample size, as well as a small $1,569,360 salary, Richardson’s contract is hard to assess for next season.
Unlike McKinnie, Richardson’s deal is already guaranteed for next year. However, despite this guarantee, it seems unlikely that he will be asked to fulfill any significant role for Toronto and will likely be spending most of next season developing with the Raptors 905.
1. OG Anunoby
Contract: 1 year + 2 (Team Option) — $1.9M (18/19), $2.2M (19/20), $3.8M (20/21)
Control. Age. Cost.
Those three things are the perfect combination, and they are the reason OG Anunoby is the top-ranked contract on the Toronto Raptors.
3 years of control, 20 years of age at a cost of (at most) $3.8 million dollars (in 20/21).
For someone with as much upside as OG, who became the team’s starting SF last season, this contract is a complete steal.
Take a look at OG’s numbers, compared against all rookies with a minimum of 41 games played this regular season:
- T-9th in Games Played
- 11th in FG%
- 2nd in Offensive Rating, 8th in Defensive Rating, 3rd in Net Rating
Effectively, Anunoby proved to be one of the most impactful rookies this regular season and despite the lack of recognition he received, not earning a place on either All-Rookie team, his impact on this team was very significant.
Beyond the regular season though, OG Anunoby showed even more promise in the playoffs, ranking as follows (from stats.nba.com) among rookies with at least four games played:
Most impressive about his postseason production was that OG was 10th of 14 qualifying rookies with respect to usage, meaning that OG was not only extremely efficient but also took a larger role in the minutes that he received
Ultimately, returning again to the three words at the top of this ranking: control, age and cost. OG Anunoby’s present production, mixed with those three factors, make it impossible to rank him as anything but the best contract on this team.
2. Jonas Valanciunas
Contract: 1 year + 1 (Player Option) — $16.5M (18/19), $17.6M (19/20)
According to stats.nba.com, Jonas Valanciunas played the 4th most minutes on the team this regular season.
That said, even though his minutes dipped slightly since Ibaka joined the team, from 25.9 MPG in 2015/16 to 22.4 MPG in 2017/18 (via stats.nba.com), Valanciunas maintained relatively consistent regular season numbers, going from 12.8 points and 9.1 rebounds in 15/16 to 12.7 points and 8.6 rebounds this year.
Moreover, Valanciunas represents an even more valuable contract for this team, particularly judging by his playoff performance. While Valanciunas might not always have a significant role, he was relied on heavily this postseason and he responded accordingly.
Statistically, among Toronto Raptors players with at least eight minutes per game, Valanciunas ranked as follows in the 2017/18 playoffs (according to stats.nba.com):
- 2nd in usage percentage
- 1st in player impact estimate
- 4th in offensive rating
- 2nd in defensive rating
Effectively, Jonas Valanciunas was one of Toronto’s top playoff performers this past season and, as the 72nd highest paid player in the NBA, he showed great postseason value for this team. However, even with all that value throughout this season, there are a few reasons Valanciunas has taken the 2nd spot on this list.
Why below Anunoby
Youth, cost and control were the reasons Valanciunas missed out on being the team’s top contract. OG Anunoby is six years younger than Valanciunas and costs the Toronto Raptors roughly $15 million dollars less for each of the next two seasons.
Moreover, Anunoby has one extra year of team control on his deal. Valanciunas’ deal expires in 2020 while OG’s contract stretches to 2021.
Regardless, Valanciunas still provides a strong combination of financial value and statistical production. This was illustrated over the last four postseasons, where he produced no less than 11.2 points and 6.7 rebounds while playing behind DeRozan and Lowry. Appropriately, for his level of production as a fourth option in Toronto, he has earned this spot as the team’s second best contract, especially if he maintains this level of postseason production.
3. PF Pascal Siakam
Contract: 1 year + 1 (Team Option) — $1.5M (18/19), $2.3M (19/20)
As he proved with his apparent fearlessness guarding LeBron James this postseason, Toronto has found themselves a gem in Siakam.
His stats may not be spectacular but that is largely because he was 12th of 18 players on the team in usage percentage this past season.
Siakam’s production was also limited due to the team’s reliance on its starters – which led to Siakam playing only 20 minutes a game in the regular season and having a usage rate of just 16%.
In that playing time though, Pascal still did very well for Toronto, finishing the season with the team’s 8th best offensive rating and 7th best defensive rating – culminating in the team’s 5th best net rating of anyone with more than 2 games played.
Still, Siakam is great for Toronto, which is why he would have been ranked higher here, if not for Valanciunas.
Why below Valanciunas
Siakam simply provides less in the immediate future than Valanciunas does. While ranking these contracts, it was important to consider that Toronto has decided to stay competitive in the near future.
Accordingly, while Siakam has a better contract financially, Valanciunas’ larger team role makes his contract slightly better overall.
In a few years, Siakam might be ranked higher here, as the best or second best contract in Toronto. However, presently, he takes 3rd place simply because of his immediate impact compared to the players above.
4. Jakob Poeltl
Contract: 1 year + 1 (Team Option) — $2.9M (18/19), $3.7M (19/20)
As a valuable member of the team’s “bench mob”, Poeltl fulfilled his role nicely in many ways.
The fulfilment of this role for Poeltl included a great deal of intangible value and some statistically apparent value as well — including ranking second on the team in effective field goal percentage and true shooting percentage while appearing in all 82 games for Toronto.
Poeltl only played 18.6 minutes per game (10th on the team, according to stats.nba.com) and yet, he finished with the 8th best regular season Player Impact Estimate value on the squad (min. 9 minutes per game)
Why below Siakam
Slightly more expensive than Siakam, and slightly less productive, Poeltl’s ranking here came is a natural spot.
He has one year left on his guaranteed deal followed by a team option, identical to Pascal Siakam. Also like Siakam, Poeltl had a low usage rate this season (14.8) and his statistical production reflected that.
Accordingly, it seems unfair to evaluate him statistically. Instead, it seems more appropriate to credit him, justifiably, as a key member of the team’s second unit.
Therefore, overall, Poeltl provides sound value for Toronto on an inexpensive deal, justifying his spot as Toronto’s 4th best contract.
5. CJ Miles
Contract: 1 year + 1 (Player Option) — $8.3M (18/19), $8.7M (19/20)
This season, C.J. Miles averaged 10 points per game (PPG) while shooting 36.1% from three and playing 19.1 minutes per contest.
$8 million dollars is significant money, there’s no two ways about it. However, while $8M seems unjustifiable for a mere 10 PPG scorer, Miles has always been a “spark plug” type player.
When he’s on, he’s on and when he’s cold, he’s cold. That is normal for players like CJ Miles, who are simply supposed to provide a scoring punch off the bench.
Also, to be fair to Miles, no one expected the emergence of OG Anunoby this quickly. While this doesn’t excuse his weak production, stats typically decrease with less minutes, meaning Miles suffered slightly from Anunoby’s success
Why below Poeltl
With an average NBA salary of $5.7M in 2017/18 (according to basketball-reference.com), the C.J. Miles contract is a bearable one.
This is especially true because, when Miles is on his game, he has proven capable of playing very well – shooting over 42% from 3 point range during a 26 game stretch during the 2017/18 regular season.
Also, unlike other players on this list, it is not guaranteed that Miles would accept his 2019/20 player option. If Miles did decline, his contract would become even better for Toronto, simply by freeing up $8.7 million dollars.
Again, in today’s NBA, $8 million dollars is only $3 million above the average NBA salary.
That said, shooters like Miles can still command a decent salary around the league.
With similar shooters like Marco Belinelli (37.7% from 3 on 5.3 3PA in 2017/18) and Danny Green (36.3% from 3 on 5.3 3PA in 2017/18) making $6.3 million and $10 million last season respectively, Miles might seek opportunities elsewhere for a larger role and more minutes to play.
Moreover, since Miles is already 31, he could just take less money to play for a (better) contender than Toronto. Essentially, Miles could just opt to become a Kyle Korver type scorer for a team like Houston, Boston or Cleveland.
In other words, many things can happen with CJ Miles’ contract at the end of next season. Regardless, whether he stays or moves on from Toronto, his contract is neither a great deal nor a terrible one. For that reason, ultimately, Miles has been placed right in the middle of these rankings.
6. Delon Wright
Contract: 1 year — $2.5M (18/19
Wright played 69 games for Toronto this season, scoring 8 points per game on 46.5% from the field in a limited 20.8 minutes per contest.
Furthermore, of players that played between 20 and 30 minutes per game, and appeared in at least 50 games, Wright had the 13th best +/- in the NBA, which says a lot for a 3rd year player.
However, this is a ranking of the team’s best contracts and although Delon’s contract is only going to cost the team $2,536,898, there is one glaring reason his contract is not ranked higher on this list – control.
Why below Miles
Truthfully, lack of team control is the only reason Delon is ranked as Toronto’s 6th best deal.
OG, Pascal and Jakob are young players with varying degrees of team control. On the other hand, after next season, Delon is a free agent and will likely command a much higher salary. Therefore, despite what Delon provides, when assessing Toronto’s contracts, Wright’s deal ultimately ranks closer to the bottom of the list.
7. DeMar DeRozan
Contract: 2 years + 1 (Player Option) — $27.7M (18/19), $27.7M (19/20), $27.7M (20/21)
Be Like…
Mike
. Kobe.
While many NBA players loved Michael Jordan, DeMar DeRozan idolized Kobe Bryant. Accordingly, DeMar clearly tries to emulate Kobe and, at least offensively, DeRozan has arguably done a decent job at that.
Defensively, on the other hand, DeMar lacks a lot that Kobe had to offer.
Statistically, DeMar has been improving his defensive rating annually — going from 112.0 to 102.4 over his career. Accordingly, DeMar is providing solid regular season defensive value to the Toronto Raptors, along with his usually stellar offense (no fewer than 16.7 points per game after his rookie year, according to stats.nba.com).
That said, defensively, DeRozan still has nothing on Kobe, who kept his defensive rating under 102 for 9 of his 20 NBA seasons.
Although the juxtaposition to an NBA great is unfair, the comparison illustrates something important…
DeMar is an offensive star and improving regular season defender, providing great value for Toronto during those 82 games. In fact, here is where DeMar ranked in the 17/18 regular season (min. 41 games played and 20 minutes per game, via stats.nba.com):
In short, these are numbers that display great regular season value for the Toronto Raptors.
Why below Wright
DeMar has taken the 7th spot on this list is largely, though, due to his playoff production. Similar to Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka (later in this list), DeRozan should be one of Toronto’s key playoff performers.
This postseason , among players with at least 10 games played and 20 minutes per game, DeMar had the NBA’s 2nd worst defensive rating and only the 27th-ranked offensive rating (via stats.nba.com).
As the NBA’s 10th highest paid player, and someone who now has a solid amount of experience in this league, DeMar needs to perform better when it matters most.
At only 28, DeMar can still prove himself as a star in the playoffs, like he is every regular season. However, at this moment, DeRozan takes up 21.74% of Toronto’s cap and is signed for 2 more guaranteed seasons plus a $27.7M player option.
Overall, with his lack of consistent playoff production, it is hard to currently justify the financial value in DeMar’s contract. The regular season production is great, but without the postseason production to match, it reigns hallow.
8. Kyle Lowry
Contract: 2 years — $31M (18/19), $33.2M (19/20)
Kyle Lowry is 32 years old. Over the next two seasons, he is owed a total of $64,296,296. By the end of his deal, Lowry will 34 years of age.
For someone earning that much money (ranked as the 6th highest paid player in the NBA this past season, according to businessinsider.com), it seems fair to expect Lowry to have a better Player Impact Estimate (PIE) number than many of his competitors, particularly in the postseason, when it matters most.
Unfortunately, however, PIE numbers provided by stats.nba.com show that Lowry had a lower PIE (13) than the following 4 players in the 17/18 playoffs:
Larry Nance Jr (3 year NBA veteran, PIE:13.1, Salary: 1.4 M), Ben Simmons (Rookie, PIE: 13.8, Salary: $6.6M), TJ McConnell (3 year NBA veteran, PIE: 14.3, Salary: $1.4M) and Clint Capela (4 year NBA veteran, PIE: 15.6, Salary: $2.3M).
Effectively, this proves the relative lack of value that Lowry provides to Toronto in the playoffs.
For players with such little NBA experience, earning fractions of Lowry’s salary, these PIE number comparisons should surely favour Lowry. Unfortunately, though, they simply do not.
Beyond that, according to stats.nba.com, Lowry had the 2nd worst defensive rating this postseason, as well as the league’s 7th worst net rating (min. 10 GP and min. 32 MPG).
Why below DeRozan
It is no secret that Lowry is a great performer in the regular season. Over the last 5 regular seasons, he has averaged no less than 16.2 points and 6.4 assists while playing in no fewer than 60 games.
However, what truly makes his contract one of the team’s worst is his lack of playoff production, as described above.
Combining the fact that he has biggest cap hit on the team (24.3%, according to spotrac.com), and the reality that he is now getting even older, the postseason impact that he has for the Toronto Raptors has simply not been strong enough to justify his contract at this stage of his career.
9. Serge Ibaka
Contract: 2 years — $21.6M (18/19), $23.2M (19/20)
Serge Ibaka was expected to do big things for the Toronto Raptors after coming from the Orlando Magic in a 2017 trade.
Coming off a season where he produced 14.8 points and 6.8 rebounds per game between Orlando and Toronto, Ibaka experienced a drop-off to nearly 12.5 points and 6 rebounds this year.
He’s 28 and he’s been in the NBA since 2009. That’s nearly 10 years of NBA experience and Ibaka is still in his late 20s. At his age, averaging just 12.6 points and 6.3 rebounds on 27 minutes per game is not worth $20M annually.
Julius Randle, for instance, averaged 16 points and 8 rebounds this season as a 4th year NBA player. His salary? According to hoopshype.com, a grand total of $4,149,242. Another 4th year player, Clint Capela, averaged nearly 14 points and 11 rebounds in 2017/18, all while earning roughly $2.3M this season.
These are just 2 examples but to see Ibaka’s lack of production for such a hefty contract is unsettling.
Why below Lowry
It also is important to consider the lack of touches that would naturally come with playing alongside DeRozan and Lowry, as his usage percentage (USG) was a mere 17% in the playoffs (according to stats.nba.com).
That said, the gap between Ibaka’s salary and value to this team justifies why he has Toronto’s second worst contract.
10. Norman Powell
Contract: 3 years + 1 (Player Option) — $9.3M (18/19), $10.1M (19/20), $10.8M (20/21), $11.6M (21/22)
Personally, Norman Powell was the hardest player to rank on this list. However, this spot also made the most sense for Powell.
This is because it’s really only partly his fault that he has the Toronto Raptors’ worst contract.
At the beginning of the season, Powell started 12 straight games and played 20 minutes or more in 8 of those contests.
Then, Powell lost his starting spot to OG Anunoby.
Admittedly, Powell did not play well in his 12 early season starts, scoring 8.2 points on 35.8% from the field, according to basketball-reference.com. However, given his performance in the 2016/17 playoffs, 11.7 points per game on 42.7% shooting averaging 25.2 minutes, 12 games seems like an oddly small window to give someone to prove themselves.
Throughout the rest of this regular season, Powell started a total of 6 other games and averaged 15.2 minutes on the year.
Why below Ibaka
Realistically, Powell has no role left on this team. This season, Powell only played 18.5 regular season minutes per game and 6.7 minutes in the playoffs. With Miles on the roster, and Anunoby’s emergence as the team’s starting SF, the fit for Powell gets very tight.
In addition, while he earned just $1.4 million dollars this season, Powell’s 2018/19 salary will be $9.3M.
Being someone who played less regular season minutes than 342 other NBA players (in a league of 540 people) but is set to earn approximately $3.6 million dollars more than this season’s average NBA salary ($5.7M, according to basketball-reference.com), the contract he has on this team is not a valuable one for the organization.
Next: Individual grades for each Raptor this season
Ultimately, Powell will earn over $9 million dollars for the next 3 or 4 seasons. Appropriately, that reality, justifies his spot the as worst contract on the Toronto Raptors.