Every season the NBA is heavily impacted by buyout candidates. After missing the buyout market last season, who might the Toronto Raptors target this year?
Every year, NBA teams rush to build their team in July. Every spot in the rotation and all 15 roster spots are locked and loaded, ready for the season. Yet, every season we see teams add major pieces through March.
Whether it is addition by trade or through the buyout market, many playoff teams will rely on players who were not on their roster to start the season.
Perhaps the best example of a team which used the buyout market to their advantage last season was the Philadelphia 76ers.
Philadelphia added two major playoff pieces in Marco Belinelli and Ersan Ilysova. Bellinelli averaged 13 points per game in the postseason, while Ilysova averaged nine and five. Ilysova even started a postseason game due to a Joel Embiid injury.
There are many factors that go into finding a perfect buyout candidate.
- They need to be on one year deals: Logistically, it almost never makes sense to buyout players on multi-year deals. With more than one year remaining teams will typically wait until the offseason to see if they can unload the player without the financial hit.
- They need to be on a bad team: Good teams aren’t going to release any potential difference makers. They definitely aren’t going to do so knowing the player could sign with their playoff competition.
- They need to be old: Team’s don’t cut bait with young players. If a player is young and talented most teams will do everything in their power to bring a player back next season, even if that costs them some games in the “tank-race”.
- They need to overpaid: If a player is good and properly paid, typically a trade can be worked out. However, if their contract is too big to receive realistic matching salaries, they usually end up cut.
If old, overpaid players on bad teams don’t get you excited, there is good news. The most important factor in finding a buyout candidate is that the player needs to be good. If the player can’t crack the playoff rotation or at least provide injury insurance, there is no purpose of bringing them in.
The competition
Of course, Toronto will not be the only team looking to benefit from the buyout market. Almost all contenders will be looking to add valuable veterans into the fold.
When looking for a post-buyout landing spot, players look for three key elements: a chance for a title, playing time, and of course, money.
Toronto will be able to beat most teams in at least two of the three. Toronto has as good of a chance at a title as anyone not named Golden State, and with their Tax-Payer Mid-Level Exception still remaining, Toronto can pay more than most teams if they need to.
So who are likely to be the Raptors’ biggest competitors in the 2018:
- Houston Rockets: A team that battled Golden State in seven games last season, the Houston Rockets are a legitimate title contender. The losses of Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah A Moute hurt their title chances slightly, but provide the opportunity for more playing time to any buyout candidate. They also have their tax-payer MLE.
- Golden State Warriors: They won’t be able to offer as much money as Toronto, but they will offer a better chance to win a ring.
- Boston Celtics: Similar availability in both minutes and championship probability. So close to the tax-line, Boston may be trying to avoid the Luxury Tax. If they do avoid the tax, Toronto has the only distinct advantage, money.
- Utah Jazz: Not quite as much of a contender, Utah is armed with the full Mid-Level Exception, allowing them to pay $3 million more than most teams.
But who will they be fighting for? Let’s take a look at the possible buyout candidates.
Enes Kanter:
Earlier this offseason, rumors circulated that Enes Kanter may decline his $18.6 million contract to leave New York. Financially that would have been a terrible decision. However, you can’t put a price on happiness, and Kanter clearly wanted to play for a contender. (I guess you can put a price on happiness and it is less than $18.6 million. )
A buyout represents the best of both worlds. There’s almost no doubt the Knicks are going to be terrible this year, and when they’re approximately 20 games under .500 in January, the two sides will likely come to an agreement.
Any team that acquires Kanter is getting a dose of offense and rebounding. Last season Kanter averaged just under 20 points per game on efficient shooting, while also posting one of the best rebounding rates in the entire NBA.
On the other end of the court Kanter is not quite as talented. In fact, he is straight-up bad. Against bigger slower opponents Kanter can play well enough to stay on the court, but that is about all you can expect.
Toronto is extremely talented defensively and any acquisition of Kanter would be for particular matchup situations. His offensive skill-set makes him worth a flyer despite his flaws.
Nikola Vucevic:
Often forgot about while playing for one of the NBA’s most irrelevant franchises for the past six years, Nikola Vucevic is a good NBA player.
Last season Vucevic averaged 16.8 points on just under league average efficiency for one of the most anemic offenses in the entire NBA. If surrounded by any amount of shooting or playmaking Vuc’s efficiency is bound to improve.
At 7’0″, 260 lbs, Vucevic is a behemoth down low. He bullies defenders in the paint and on the glass, averaging nearly 10 rebounds per game over the course of his career.
Vucevic is in many ways similar to Jonas Valanciunas. Like Valanciunas, Vucevic has also attempted to expand his shooting in order to modernize his game.
Last season Vucevic shot only 31.4-percent, but was attempting a blistering 3.6 three’s per game. When you’re in Orlando, sometimes there aren’t very many options.
Orlando’s incentive to part ways with Vucevic is clear. The team just drafted Mo Bamba with the 6th overall pick in the NBA draft and is clearly moving in another direction.
Unfortunately for Toronto, Vucevic is good enough and young enough that he may just warrant trade consideration. Orlando is unlikely to make a splash next offseason, and if someone wants to trade bad-salary and picks for Vucevic, a deal might make sense for both sides.
Another possible hiccup: With the potential to still receive a considerable contract next season, Vucevic will likely search for playing time more than championship contention. A factor that does not swing in Toronto’s favor.
Robin Lopez:
Perhaps the biggest factor working against Robin Lopez becoming a potential buyout candidate: The bulls are trying to be good. Perhaps the biggest factor working towards Robin Lopez becoming a potential buyout candidate: They aren’t likely to succeed.
Despite their best efforts, odds are against the Bulls competing for the playoffs this season. Last season the team won just 27 games and this upcoming season they project to be a defensive disaster. Except for Robin Lopez.
A 10-year veteran, Lopez knows his role at this point in his career. He is here to play defense, rebound at a high-level, and do all the dirty work on offense.
Perhaps not quite as talented as Kanter or Vucevic, Lopez would be a perfect fit on both sides of the ball for the Toronto Raptors.
Lopez does all the little things to free other, more talented offensive players. He is a spectacular screener and knows how to navigate the short roll surprisingly well. Last season he averaged just under two assists per game.
On the other end, he is surprisingly mobile for a player of his size (compared to say JV), and while he doesn’t block many shots anymore, he is still a solid deterrent around the rim.
Robin Lopez biggest skill, however, is his rebounding. Throughout his career Lopez has been a spectacular offensive rebounder, averaging 2.5 per game.
Defensively, he has only averaged three rebounds a game. But those stats do not tell the entire story. A closer examination shows that Lopez is on the court, his teams rebound very well defensively, and thanks to his ability boxing out, Lopez is a positive on the defensive glass.
The Phoenix Suns, despite their efforts, are not going to be good. However, because they have attempted to be relevant over the past couple of years, they project to have three possible buyout options. Admittedly, some are more likely options than others.
Trevor Ariza:
Obviously the Raptors would love to add Ariza if given the oppurtunity. Unfortunately, it’s hard to imagine the Phoenix Suns cutting bait with Trevor Ariza. General manager Ryan McDonough, just gave Ariza a considerable one-year $15 million dollar contract, and the optics of giving up on a player you just spent $15 million on are terrible.
Logistically, the Suns will be likely be out of contention by January and any wins Ariza helps earn will only cost them valuable draft position. But General Managers focus on keeping their job first and logistics second.
Darrell Arthur:
The past two seasons Darrel Arthur has been buried on the bench in Denver, due to an embarrassment of riches at power forward. However the last time we saw Arthur play legitimate minutes, he was a productive NBA player.
When last on the floor, Arthur was a defensive minded power forward who was capable of stretching the floor on the other end. He is 6’9″, athletic, and has shot greater than 40-percent from beyond the arc over the past three seasons.
The only question remaining is if Arthur still has his fastball. Entering just his age-30 season, it seems very possibly. Luckily, Toronto will also have until mid-way throughout the year to answer that question.
If he plays well enough in Phoenix, he may just earn himself a playoff spot on a contender. If he doesn’t play well or doesn’t receive enough time, then he might be heading to Europe soon.
Tyson Chandler:
Similar to Arthur, the only question surrounding Chandler is if he has enough in the tank. Unlike Arthur, Chandler is entering his age 36 season, after playing more than 30,000 minutes in his career.
Last season, despite his advanced age, Chandler averaged 6.5 points and 9.1 rebounds in 25 minutes per game. In Toronto, Chandler’s role would likely be half that.
If seen strictly as a matchup play for 10-15 minutes per game, Chandler might still have enough in the tank to positively impact a title contender. At the very least, he will be a good mentor and provide championship experience from the end of the bench.
The Brooklyn Nets are projected to be better this season, and in the bottom of the Eastern Conference, you never know. Still, despite their changes, Brooklyn will likely be out of contention by March. Owning their own pick for the first time in seemingly 50 years, they should commit to tanking and tanking hard.
Ed Davis:
Ed Davis fits most of the criteria for a candidate, except he has one major flaw. Davis is too good and on too small of a contract. He will almost certainly fetch the Nets a decent deadline price, rather than be released for nothing. (Unless they pull a Memphis Grizzlies and keep him for no reason)
Kenneth Faried:
The mediocre cluster of players exchanged between the Nets, Nuggets, and Suns continues to produce candidates for buyout candidates.
The previously mentioned big-man log-jam (big-man log-jam would be a great band name) in Denver made Faried as expendable as his former teammate Darrel Arthur, and after seven seasons and one massive contract extension, the Nuggets finally cut bait.
Faried offers very little of what is needed in a modern NBA big-man. He doesn’t protect the rim, doesn’t space the floor, and despite his reputation, is a pretty poor overall defender. However he still does have one skill, rebounding, and that skill he is ELITE at.
He is also an efficient enough scorer, due to his high field goal percentage and solid free-throw shooting.
Faried offers one elite skill. That’s more than most 15th roster spots. If Toronto picks him-up they will undoubtedly have a specific role in mind.
Jared Dudley:
If you looked up solid veteran presence in the dictionary, I’d probably question why you didn’t google it. And if you actually did look it up on google, Jared Dudley is on the first page of image results.
Dudley is a 12-year veteran, and if you go by the advanced numbers, still a very productive player. According to on/off statistics, Dudley might be the most productive player on this list other than Ed Davis(again not going to happen).
I am a little less bullish on those numbers. Much of Dudley’s on/off statistics are based against the two dumpster fires known as Dragan Bender and Marquese Chriss. Other than play smart, mistake-free basketball Dudley doesn’t offer much. (That is still very important!)
If Dudley is picked up by the Raptors it is likely a sign that the team is comfortable with their rotation and would like to just add a solid presence before a hopeful “Championship Run”.
Perhaps only a handful of these players will be available for the Raptors this buyout season. Perhaps they will ultimately decide to bring in no-one. Regardless, they should at least plan for the possibilities available later this season.