The Toronto Raptors face a great deal of uncertainty heading into this season. Here are five crazy predictions that might* come true this year.
Everybody loves sports predictions. We make predictions before every season, before every game, heck Tony Romo even likes to predict what play will be next. So what if I tell you we have been doing it wrong this whole time?
We try to predict outcomes when we should be trying forecast probabilities. The weatherman doesn’t state if it’s going to rain, they give you the chance of rain. Perhaps we should do the same with our sporting forecast.
This isn’t a new idea. Gamblers have been using probabilistic forecasting since before Pete Rose was gambling on the Reds. Trying to find favorable odds is much smarter than finding surefire bets.
Furthermore, this opens us up to a broader range of topics to discuss. I don’t believe any of the next five predictions are going to happen, but I think there is a chance they do. Our list will consist of five outcomes, with probabilities ranging from 10-45 percent.
These type of predictions make sense for every team, but make particular sense for a team like the Toronto Raptors. After firing their coach and trading one of the best players in franchise history, the Raptors will face one of their highest variance seasons in recent memory.
We don’t know what the defense will look like, who will earn the 15th spot on the roster, or even who will be in the starting lineup. Still, here are five crazy predictions that might* come true this season.
Raptors win 65+ games – 10 percent
Toronto won 59 games last season. This season they have a better roster and should have more regular season motivation.
To win 65 games, you have to be truly special. Over the past four seasons, it has only occurred five times, with the Golden State Warriors accounting for three of the five teams.
For Toronto to crack the 65-win threshold, they will almost certainly need to be at least one of the top two teams during the regular season, probably the first overall seed.
That isn’t likely, but it is possible. After winning 59 games the season prior, Toronto returns nearly the same squad with the exception of the Kawhi Leonard trade. Leonard raises the ceiling of the Raptors significantly, and if he can find his rhythm after a long absence from consistent basketball, Toronto will be as talented as anyone outside of Golden State.
Another factor working in the Raptors favor is their depth. Although it’s importance is somewhat marginalized in the playoffs, having a roster with 11 legitimate rotation-quality players is a godsend in the regular season. Toronto is able to consistently give players rest without seeing a significant drop-off on the court.
Having the talent is important, but teams also need motivation throughout the marathon style length of an 82-game regular season.
Boston won 55 games last season without Gordon Hayward and without Kyrie Irving for long stretches. If Toronto wants to earn the one-seed in the Eastern Conference (it was SUPER beneficial last year), they will likely need to win 60+ games. With the Celtics pushing them throughout the season, Toronto is much more likely to stay focused on a consistent basis.
There are plenty of reasons why Toronto won’t win 65+ games this season: A new head coach, an emphasis on postseason play rather than the regular season, and chemistry issues to begin the year.
But if everything breaks right, 65 is attainable for a roster this talented.
Jonas Valanciunas comes off the bench at some point – 45 percent
Jonas Valanciunas is, and will continue to be, one of the best five players on the Toronto Raptors roster. But there is no rule that your best five players need to start.
With the additions of Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard, Toronto has serious questions in regards to their starting lineup. With a glut of versatile wings and OG Anunoby’s impressive rookie season, it’s more likely than not either JV or Serge Ibaka will come off the bench to start the season.
For now, Ibaka seems like the most reasonable option. However, if things aren’t going smoothly to start the season, a shakeup at the center position isn’t out of the question.
A change at center makes sense for a couple of reasons, but the biggest reason might be counter-intuitive. Moving Valanciunas to the bench can maximize his impact.
Playing JV mostly in bench units, rather than alongside all-stars Kyle Lowry and Kawhi Leonard, will allow Valanciunas to increase his already significant 22.7-percent usage. Increasing JV’s offensive role, while maintaining his 22 minute per game average from last season, maximizes his offensive impact without increasing his defensive liabilities.
Another reason the Raptors may start Ibaka at center is to maximize the team’s defensive potential.
Although JV’s advanced metrics indicate, he’s a better than defender than given credit, Ibaka provides the starting lineup with a more versatile option in pick-and-roll coverage. With Valanciunas on the court, Toronto is forced to play strictly drop-coverage. With Ibaka, Nick Nurse has the ability to play a bevy of different coverages.
Valanciunas defense will always be a concern for the 20+ minutes a night he is on the court. Playing against bench competition limits those concerns significantly.
Teams typically start their top five players, and Valanciunas will almost certainly start to begin the season. But if things go awry early, Nurse might be willing to mix things up in a way Dwane Casey rarely did.
Toronto makes a move for another star – 25 percent
It’s easy to justify a trade for Toronto regardless of how their season starts.
If Toronto starts off the season on fire, one star player might be the difference between making the finals and losing in the Eastern Conference playoffs once again.
If Toronto struggles to begin the year, it’s easy to imagine the front office feeling the cost of Kawhi Leonard. To dissuade Leonard from bolting at the end of the year, team president Masai Ujiri might try to vault the team into serious contention with a move.
Of course, at this time, Jimmy Butler is the first name that comes to mind, but he is just one of several possible players who Toronto might target before the trade deadline.
If Portland struggles this season, do they finally consider breaking up the backcourt duo of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum? If things go south in Washington, they will face a similar decision with John Wall and Bradley Beal. Paul Millsap has only one year remaining, is it possibly Denver shifts their focus towards the future? And of course, there could always be a new disgruntled star we aren’t even talking about yet.
Individually all of these deals seem like a long shot. In the aggregate, they amount to a sizable, although still unlikely, percentage.
Toronto has already made a big bet on Kawhi Leonard this season. Will they be willing to go all-in on another franchise player?
Kawhi Leonard doesn’t return to All-NBA form – 15 percent
When the season kicks off, it will be around 15 months since Kawhi Leonard has played consistent, meaningful basketball. That’s worrisome.
As Kawhi starts to find himself, a learning curve will be natural and acceptable, but what if Kawhi never returns to All-NBA Kawhi?
Plenty of players never return to form after injury, and if the injury really was Tendinopathy, as Leonard’s team claims, it’s very concerning to his long-term health. Tendinopathy is a degenerative disease with different levels of severity, similar to tendonitis. Depending on the severity, it could have a significant impact not only on this season but his career moving forward.
We also have not seen Leonard out of the San Antonio system. Certainly, at this point, we know Leonard is an extremely talented player. No system is creating Kawhi freaking Leonard. But the Spurs offense and Gregg Popovich might be the difference between an All-Star player and an All-NBA player.
When a player is as great as Leonard was the last time we saw him, you also risk the chance of a general regression. 2016-2017 was the best season we saw from Leonard in his career. It’s possible he regresses slightly to something similar to the 2014-2015 version of Kawhi. Still, an outstanding player, just not an MVP candidate.
Pascal Siakam makes a substantial developmental leap – 20 percent
Over the summer, Pascal Siakam has quickly become a Twitter darling and suspected breakout candidate. Although the odds are not in his favor, or really any players favor, he has the ability to take a massive development leap this season.
Last year Siakam was sixth on the team in minutes. With Ibaka expected to play a significant amount of center, and with no other true power forwards on the roster, Siakam could rank as high as third this season.
From his rookie to sophomore season, Siakam experienced an extraordinary amount of growth. If he makes a similar development this year, he will catapult into one of the league’s top 10-15 power forwards.
It’s too simplistic to say all of Siakam’s development depends on his jumper. There are still many other facets of his game he can improve. But obtaining even a respectable jumper will help the rest of his offensive game exponentially.
With a passable three-point shot, Siakam projects as a poor-man’s Draymond Green. Defensive versatility, elite playmaking for his position, and no glaring weaknesses.
The good news: Siakam did improve his three-point percentage from his rookie to sophomore year. The bad news: It improved from 14 to 22 percent.
It will need to rise to 33-34 to become a legitimate threat. Obtainable but difficult.
It’s important to remember, none of these scenarios are likely. But if you are only accounting for likely possibilities, you need to expand your horizons.