The Toronto Raptors are NBA Champions. But the team won’t have much time to enjoy it. The NBA is a 12-month league and it’s already time to get ready for next season.
Three years in a row the Toronto Raptors’ playoff hopes were extinguished by one of the best basketball players who’s ever lived. This past summer LeBron James left Cleveland for the second time in his career. The first time he went to create a super team in Miami. This time, it was to revive one of the most storied franchises in NBA history.
James’ departure left a void in the Eastern Conference. James had led eight straight teams to the NBA Finals. He collected three titles and three Finals MVP trophies. Entering the season it appeared to be a four-team race as to who would replace James as the East’s representative in the NBA Finals.
The Boston Celtics were the preseason favorite to come out of the East. The Milwaukee Bucks finished the season with the best record in the NBA. But through it all the Toronto Raptors lurked.
The Raptors have been an excellent regular season team over the last five seasons. Since the 2015-16 season, the Raptors have a combined record of 224-104. The only team with a better record over that span is the Golden State Warriors.
Despite the team’s regular season success, the Raptors never felt like a serious threat once the playoffs started. With the exception of Detroit Pistons, every championship team since the 1980s has had at least one top-five player. The Raptors were led by one of the best backcourts in the NBA in Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan. However, at their best, neither one was ever considered a top ten player, let alone top five.
Everything changed when the Raptors traded for Kawhi Leonard. Leonard missed all but nine games during the 2017-18 Season. But when healthy, Leonard had established himself as one of the best players in the entire Association. Leonard was a two-time Defensive Player of the Year and a former Finals MVP. He also finished in the top 3 in MVP voting in the two seasons immediately before his quad injury.
Leonard came to Toronto and did exactly what Masai Ujiri and Bobby Webster hoped he would do. He averaged careers highs in points (26.6) and rebounds (7.3). Leonard played in only 60 regular season games due mostly to load management, but it was clear that he had regained his pre-injury form.
Once the playoffs started, Leonard took his game to another level. He averaged 30.5 points, 9.1 rebounds, 3.9 assists and 1.7 steals per game. Leonard also shot 37.9 percent from three-point range, with a true shooting percentage of 61.9. Leonard put together one of the most dominant playoff performances ever. He led the Toronto Raptors to their first ever NBA Championship and collected a second Finals MVP trophy.
With LeBron gone, it would have been easy for the Toronto Raptors to stand pat and bring back the same team. Instead, they pushed their chips in for Kawhi Leonard. This offseason, Toronto will be coming off an NBA Championship. Once again, it would be easy to ride out the current roster.
But Masai Ujiri and company have shown they’re not afraid to make the bold move. This offseason, they should look to shake things up by adding another significant piece.
What happens this summer?
Now the season is over and one question remains. What will Kawhi do on July 1st? Have the Raptors done enough to convince him to re-sign?
Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN continues to report that it is a two-team race between the Raptors and the Los Angeles Clippers.
The Raptors enter the offseason with a few advantages. They can offer Leonard more money than any other team. Leonard has built a relationship of trust with the Raptors. He knows that the team is committed to doing whatever it takes to keep him healthy and playing at the highest level. Finally, if Leonard returns he will rejoin a championship caliber roster, capable of repeating.
The Raptors have the majority of their core under contract for next season. Marc Gasol has a $25.6 million player option, which he is likely to exercise. Other than Leonard, Danny Green is the only other free agent who was part of the team’s regular rotation.
It makes sense for Leonard to re-sign, at least on a short-term deal. But if he does return, Ujiri and Webster need to decide whether it is necessary to make a big splash to improve the roster around Leonard.
The Raptors will be limited in the moves they can make this summer. The salary cap for next season is projected to be $109 million, with a luxury tax threshold of $132 million. Assuming the Raptors guarantee Chris Boucher’s contract (likely) and Gasol exercises his player option, the team has almost $109 million in committed salary for eight players.
Leonard is eligible to sign a new contract starting at $32.7 million. Re-signing Green to a new contract at $10 million per year would bring the total salary up to $151.6 million, with only 10 players under contract. If the Raptors were to fill out the rest of the roster with minimum contract players, the total for salaries and tax payments combined would be over $210 million.
Unless the Raptors significantly cut their payroll, the team will be over the luxury tax apron ($138 million) next season. As a result, they are restricted in terms of the resources available to add players. The Raptors will have access to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5.7 million). Any player signed under this exception can sign for a maximum of three years. Also, the Raptors are not able to receive a player in a sign-and-trade.
Another barrier for the Raptors is that about 40 percent of the league will be free agents this summer. As such, there are limited trade options available.
Altogether, it will be very difficult to make additions to the roster.
How the rest of the league stacks up
The first domino has already fallen. The Los Angeles Lakers have acquired Anthony Davis from the New Orleans Pelicans. This move gives the Lakers two of seven best players in the league in Davis and James.
Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson are expected to miss most, if not all, of next season. The Western Conference is now wide open. Depending on how the Lakers fill out the rest of their roster, they could be serious title contenders.
Even with the acquisition of Davis, there will still be questions surrounding the Lakers. Depending on when the trade is finalized, the Lakers will have anywhere between $23.7 million and $32.5 million in cap space.
If the Lakers opt to sign another max level player, the roster will be top heavy. The Raptors just showed the importance depth plays in making a title run. Once Durant and Thompson went down with injuries, the Warriors didn’t have enough talent left on the roster to combat the Raptors’ depth.
The other major storylines for the Raptors to monitor are what happens with the Celtics, Bucks, and 76ers. Not only did the Celtics miss out on Davis, but it has been reported that Kyrie Irving is expected to sign with the Brooklyn Nets. It remains to be seen what will happen with Al Horford, who declined his player option for next season.
The Bucks emerged as a serious contender this past season. But a number of key players (Khris Middleton, Malcolm Brogdon, Brook Lopez, and Nikola Mirotic) will be free agents this summer. George Hill’s $18 million contract is only partially guaranteed. Hill may turn out to be a luxury the Bucks can’t afford, unless he comes back on a smaller deal.
As for the 76ers, they gave up a lot in order to acquire Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris. Both will be free agents this summer and both want a max contract. JJ Redick is also a free agent. If all three return, the 76ers will remain one of the best in the Eastern Conference. If not, Elton Brand traded in all of Sam Hinkie’s hard work for a second-round loss to the Raptors.
Free agency hasn’t even started and no one can predict how this summer will play out. Even if the Raptors don’t make any changes, they have to be considered one of the favorites to win the title next season.
But they’ll need to make a move to become THE favorite next season.
What type of move the Raptors should make
A starting five of Kyle Lowry, Green, Leonard, Pascal Siakam and Marc Gasol is among the best in the league. Fred VanVleet has gone from undrafted free agent to Sixth Man of the Year Candidate to playoff hero. Ibaka was a starter for most of last season and now is a strong two-way presence off the bench. Finally, OG Anunoby will be just 22 years old at the start of next season and has the potential to become a starter in this league.
The Raptors are one of the deepest teams in the NBA. Ujiri and his staff have done an outstanding job of finding overvalued players late in the draft and developing them.
But if the Raptors want to go from one of the favorites to the favorite, they should consider making a big splash this summer.
Their target: another All-Star scorer to pair alongside Leonard on the wing. Someone like Bradley Beal or Jrue Holiday would be ideal.
The Washington Wizards are in disarray. They don’t have a General Manager. Their star, John Wall, will likely miss all of next season because of a ruptured left Achilles tendon. It has been reported that the Wizards plan to offer Beal a three-year, $111 million contract extension. However, given the state of the franchise, Beal might not want to commit to the team long-term. The Wizards could trade Beal while his value is high and before he demands a trade. How long will it take before Beal decides he doesn’t want to waste his prime and leaves town?
As for Holiday, the Pelicans just traded Davis. They are set to rebuild around Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball. Holiday just turned 29 last week and is in the middle of his prime. By the time the Pelicans’ young core is ready to compete for a title Holiday will be in his mid-30s. Holiday would be a good locker room presence, but doesn’t fit the Pelicans’ timeline.
The cost of acquiring a co-star
Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer reported that the Wizards won’t even consider moving Beal unless the offers are overwhelming. It remains to be seen what will happen with Holiday. It took three former first-round picks, two future firsts and a pick-swap to get Anthony Davis. Davis is a six-time All-Star and three time All-NBA First Team member. Anyone the Raptors are likely to acquire won’t be on the same level as Davis, but whoever it is will still cost a lot.
Assuming Siakam is untouchable, the Raptors have a number of assets that could be packaged together. The Raptors don’t have a first-round pick this year. But they own all of their first rounders moving forward. Outside of Siakam, Anunoby is the most promising young player on the Raptors’ roster. Some combination of Ibaka’s expiring contract, VanVleet and Norman Powell would be required for salary matching purposes.
Assuming Leonard returns, teams will prefer future picks starting in 2022 and beyond. The Raptors’ 2020 and 2021 selections won’t be as valuable because they should fall in the 20s. Any 2022 pick will hold a significant level of intrigue. 2022 is projected to be the first year that high school players are allowed to enter the draft, which should make it one of the deepest drafts in recent history.
A trade package of Anunoby, Ibaka and two future first-round picks should be enticing enough for a rebuilding team to bite. By making a trade, the Raptors would lose some of their depth, but they would substantially improve their overall talent.
Acquiring a player like Beal or Holiday, along with Leonard and Siakam, would give the Raptors three All-Star level players in their prime. Lowry and Gasol are on the wrong side of 30. Their contracts come off the books next season. But making another win now trade would ensure that the Raptors’ championship window stays open longer. It also further proves to Leonard that this team is serious about being a contender for years to come.
After everything that has happened this season, the Raptors shouldn’t have to do anything else to convince Leonard to re-sign. However, if the Raptors are able to acquire a player as talented as Beal it would make their pitch all the more compelling.
Stats were provided by ESPN and Basketball Reference.