The Toronto Raptors are preparing to defend their title. As they get ready for the season to start, we asked some of our contributors the key questions heading into the year.
It’s prediction time people! The Toronto Raptors are prepping to defend their NBA Championship and Raptors Rapture is prepping to defend our title as the best NBA blog.
As we both prepare for our title defenses, we gathered some of our top contributors to ask them the biggest questions heading into the season. Who will take the biggest leap, hottest take, predicted finish, and more!
The player who takes the biggest step this season?
Mike Bossetti:
I’m gonna say Norman Powell. OG Anunoby is the easy answer (and probably the right answer) but let’s have some fun. Norman Powell is athletic, can shoot, and if he shows a little more awareness off the ball, can be a problem defensively. The only thing holding Norm back is consistency, the type of consistency you might find as an everyday starter.
Powell doesn’t quite have the ceiling of OG, but there is no reason he can’t be a microwave scorer at the Raptors two-guard position.
Mark Birdsell:
The player who is going to take the biggest step this season is Terence Davis. Davis is going to be a fan favourite in Toronto due to his hard-working style and grinder mentality.
Davis improved his draft stock with strong play at the Portsmouth Invitational Tournament and then the G League Elite Camp. He had the opportunity to be selected in the second round of the draft but turned down those offers because he wasn’t interested in signing a two-way contract.
Davis signed a two-year contract with the Raptors as an undrafted free agent, and it appears Toronto plans to develop him as a point guard. Davis will likely spend the beginning of his career with the 905, but expect to see him in the rotation by the end of the season.
Michael Walton II:
My initial reaction was newcomer Terence Davis but I’ll go with Fred VanVleet here. Last season VanVleet hit career-high in points (11.0), rebounds (2.6), and assists (4.8) per game. This is what happens when you play next to a superstar such as Kawhi Leonard and a developing one in Pascal Siakam.
With Leonard’s departure, expect VanVleet to help pick up some of the scoring slack, likely getting just north of 10 shots per game after taking 9.4 per game last season. VanVleet also, after never starting a game in his career, started 28 games last season. Though Kyle Lowry was just signed to a one-year contract extension, the Raptors will want him healthy for a postseason push as long as that is a clear and attainable goal.
This means both more starts and more minutes for VanVleet, even more so when you consider that the Lowry-VanVleet duo had a +14.4 Net Rating over 661 minutes together in the 2018-19 regular season. All around VanVleet will have more opportunity this season–in a contract year no less–and I expect him to take full advantage.
Andrew Hughes
Can it be anyone else other than Fred VanVleet? Seriously, think back to that quote Nurse said to ESPN’s Jackie MacMullan upon Kawhi Leonard leaving about Pascal Siakam and VanVleet:
"“I told them, ‘There are 20-plus shots up for grabs.’ They both grabbed their right shoulders and said, ‘We’re ready.'”"
We already knew that Siakam would have more time with the ball in his hands. But, now, it seems that the reins will be VanVleet’s for the taking as Nurse also will experiment with Kyle Lowry at shooting guard alongside VanVleet.
Hottest Raptors take for this season?
Mike Bossetti:
I’ve teetered back and forth on this, and I’m not sure I 100-percent believe it yet, but I’m at least at 50-percent….. I think the Toronto Raptors should explore the trade market on Fred VanVleet.
VanVleet is in the last year of his contract and will receive a HEFTY payday at the end of this season. Entering unrestricted free agency as the best point guard on the market, it’s not unreasonable to say he could receive an offer north of $20 million per season. If that’s the figure, he’ll be significantly overpaid.
Rather than overpaying Fred, Toronto could get ahead of the situation this year. Deal him to a team who is point guard desperate and sell him as the future of their young core. After the postseason he just had and while he’s still on a reasonable deal, his value could be peaking.
Mark Birdsell:
The Toronto Raptors make the Eastern Conference Finals. OG Anunoby is on record saying that the Raptors are going to repeat as NBA Champions. And while that seems unlikely, a trip to the conference finals is within reach.
The Raptors are returning seven of their top nine players from a team that went 17-5 without Kawhi Leonard last season. Pascal Siakam is going to thrive as the Raptors’ no. 1 option, and Marc Gasol and Kyle Lowry are capable of carrying a larger offensive load.
The 76ers and Bucks are the top two teams in the conference on paper, but both teams have lost key contributors from last season. Nothing is guaranteed, if the Raptors are healthy they are a legitimate threat.
Michael Walton II:
My hottest Toronto Raptors take is that not only do I not expect them to not be sellers at any point, but I expect them to be aggressive buyers throughout the season.
Raptors GM Masai Ujiri surely has his eye on the loaded 2021 NBA free agency class but with how aggressive he is, I expect him to look for a big-time scorer to make them more of a fringe-NBA Finals contender.
Andrew Hughes
The Raptors will have a top ten record heading into the All-Star break. As the rest of the league attempts to find their footing with new faces, Toronto’s stability should standout.
Yes, the Raptors lost two key players, there’s no need to rehash that argument. But, as we’ve seen in recent history, newly minted rosters can take some time to click, so I’ll gamble that that will be the case in the West especially.
The Raptors retained their identity with a recently discovered knack for winning big games. That, ultimately, will be the difference until the All-Star break. After that, I expect everyone else to catch up and, perhaps, the Raptors to fall off as well.
Should Raptors look to blow it up?
Mike Bossetti:
No, but they shouldn’t hang up the phone either. Listen on deals for Kyle Lowry, Marc Gasol, and Serge Ibaka, but don’t accept anything unless the offer is right.
At the end of the day, I’d guess the Raptors trade either Gasol or Ibaka, depending on what they’re able to receive. That’s certainly not blowing it up, but it’s not going all-in either.
Mark Birdsell:
The Raptors should consider retooling, not a full-scale rebuild.
I am on record saying that Kyle Lowry has more value for the Raptors than he does for any other team. However, the Raptors should consider moving at least one of Gasol or Ibaka in order to acquire draft picks or a young asset. The Trail Blazers are a team to watch due to the injury to Jusuf Nurkic and Hassan Whiteside‘s ability to wear out his welcome.
Michael Walton II:
The Raptors should absolutely not look to blow it up. “Blowing it up” is it a phrase thrown around too often in today and should be reserved for teams that clearly have a path to hitting rock-bottom, which the Raptors do not.
I do believe at least one key veteran player from last year’s championship roster will be traded for either a high-ceiling prospect or a draft pick for Ujiri to use in future deals. However, trading off one veteran piece is far from blowing up what is definitively a playoff core.
Andrew Hughes
Yes, but not as an all-out tank-a-palooza. Listen, Gasol, Ibaka, and Lowry are all dynamic players that will be forever enshrined into Raptors’ history. But, the front office will have to move on from them at some point in the near future.
If there’s a deal in place that acquires a certain amount of young, win-now viable assets then the Raptors should strike. Ironically, a deal like what the Raptors and Grizzlies made for Gasol last year would be sufficient just flip-flopped this time around. But, no deal should be made if it’s not for a great talent that increases the likelihood of the Raptors winning in the future.
What will decide Raptors’ success this year?
Mike Bossetti:
Can the Raptors find enough offense to help out what appears to be a top-end defensive unit?
Toronto performed well without Kawhi Leonard last season, but there are a couple of reasons why their 17-5 record is a little misleading. Without him on the floor, the Raptors posted an offensive rating of just 107.7, a figure which would rank 23rd in the NBA. Without Danny Green to space the offense that figure could be even worse.
The Raptors lack shot creation, spacing, and many individual bucket-getters. What they do have is an incredible set of veterans who know how to play and impact the game in a million little ways. Toronto might be the smartest team in the entire league; we’ll see if those smarts are enough to maintain an above-average offense or if individual talent really does trump all.
Michael Walton II:
It feels like to easy of an answer, which probably means it’s the right one: Pascal Siakam. Last season only 14 players had a usage rate of 30% or more, one of those was Kawhi Leonard. While the quantity of returning players makes me believe the Raptors defense will still be great, the quality (or lack thereof) of their collective shot-creating ability leaves me quite worried.
Next season we’ll be able to tell if the Raptors were a playoff team just by looking at Siakam’s numbers. Did he get near 20 points per game? Did he hover around 4.0 assists per game? Did he shoot league-average from 3-point range? If the answer to any of those questions is no, chances are the Raptors underperforming even the most modest expectations.
Mark Birdsell
This might seem like an obvious answer, but Pascal Siakam will be primarily responsible for the Raptors’ success this season. Siakam has gone from a late first-round draft pick to a borderline All-Star.
Last season he averaged 16.9 points and 6.9 rebounds per game, and this year I expect those figures to increase to 20 points and 9 rebounds. He will almost certainly be named to the Eastern Conference All-Star team. But if Siakam can’t handle the pressure of being the Raptors’ primary option, the team is likely looking at a first-round exit in the playoffs.
Andrew Hughes
The most critical man to the Raptors’ success will be Nick Nurse. Last year, there was a collective stroke of genius tied to Nurse. Now, he’ll get to prove if it was all for naught. He will have to be schematically, defensively, and systematically smarter than his opponents if he hopes to shell out the losses. And, right now, we only have the proof of his worth when he spent time with an arguably top-five NBA talent.
Perhaps, though, this might be Nurse’s most fun year to date as the pressure is off for at least one season. As a coach, he’ll get to experiment with odd line-ups, statistical scenarios, and try to uncover hidden gems on his roster. Doesn’t that all sound like a blast?
Raptors predicted range of outcomes assuming core stays together?
Mike Bossetti:
The thing is, if they’re below .500, the core probably won’t stay together. So at the very least it feels like the floor of this core unit is 41 games. However, theoretically, I could see the unit somewhere between 35-40.
On the high end, let’s get crazy. Why couldn’t this team win 55 games and take the two seed? They have an infrastructure, multiple young players capable of taking a leap, and with Leonard gone, a chip on their shoulder that most defending titles don’t have during the regular season.
In terms of playoff peak, I think a Conference Finals is possible, maybe NBA Finals if there is a rash of injuries in the East.
Michael Walton II:
On the low-end of things, I’ll say 41 wins and a No. 7 seed in the playoffs. This would be due to the offense grinding to an absolute halt without Green’s aggressive shooting and Leonard’s ability to bail them out late in the shot-clock.
On the high-end, I will say 52 wins and a No. 4 seed. They can get to easily should everyone stay healthy, Lowry bounces back from 3-point range, and Siakam develops into an All-Star. A lot of things have to go right for the Raptors to reach their absolute ceiling and I feel that injuries and age-related regression will stop them from reaching it.
But with improvements from relatively younger players like Norman Powell, VanVleet, and Siakam, I believe the Raptors will end up being a 50-win team engaged in a 4 vs 5 playoff matchup where homecourt will be decided by the regular-season tiebreaker in what should be a tight Eastern Conference race.
Mark Birdsell:
The Raptors have won 50+ games in each of the last four seasons and have finished in the top 4 in the East in each of the last six seasons. Assuming the Raptors don’t blow it up they should finish in the top 4 again this season.
I have the Raptors and Celtics as the third and fourth best teams in the East. The Pacers, Heat, and Nets are just below them, but the Heat could jump into the top 4 if they make a move to acquire Chris Paul. The Raptors are going to win 48 or 49 games this season and finish fourth in the East.
Andrew Hughes
It’s hard not to be overly pessimistic or optimistic in this case, so I’m going to try and predict a finite range from 45 to 50 wins. Which, if you’ve carefully kept track of over/under win totals for the Raptors in the offseason, then you’ll notice this is tiptoeing back and forth from the determined 46.5 line.
The Raptors are a really bad bet this year for over/under total wins because there are so many balls being juggled in the air behind closed doors. Will the Raptors be sellers at the deadline? Will one of their aging starters get injured? Will they decide to promote growth over winning? Will continuity prove to be very important at the start of the season? None of us really know what to expect this year, so, by all means, stay away from this bet.
That said, the way the players treated media day seems like they had a Kawhi-sized chip on their collective shoulders for the upcoming season, so I expect them to go out and play their tails off. Will that take them above and beyond? I am unsure, but I’ll go out on a limb and predict that they’ll be sitting pretty at the fourth seed come playoffs.