Are we sure 2021 cap space is the way to build the Toronto Raptors?

The pendulum swings with Gasol, Ibaka, and VanVleet

These three players, all unrestricted, are the key to not only this upcoming offseason but also the 2021 offseason. Likewise, they’ve all proved their importance over the years. Gasol proved to be a great defensive swing against big men, Ibaka showed a worthwhile offensive and defensive attack, and VanVleet has suddenly become a shifty, near number one guy since showing his stuff in the Finals.

What the Toronto Raptors can do with these guys will ultimately show their hand.

Marc Gasol

Gasol is 35 years old. This very well could be his last deal. His heads up passing, defensive stature, and improved ability beyond the arc has certainly lengthened his career. Also, he’s made more than $150 million in his career. To say that he needs another huge contract isn’t necessarily true and big men fall faster than gravity when it’s the end. Yet, his status as an elder statesmen and willingness to be a team player is not something to be dismissed.

If Toronto can re-sign him for a long, but with a lower salary than other teams are offering then he’s definitely worth keeping. But, there may be other championship-caliber squads that believe they are one stretch-5 away from the title and they may not have much investment in the long-term other than winning now. Another ring to tie his brother would certainly be enticing.

Pau Gasol, who was 37 years old at the time, signed a massive deal with the San Antonio Spurs in 2017 for three years, $48 million, which was bought out during last season. Pau was certainly a great player, but not worth the massive deal. As great as our Gasol has been, Pau should be used a barometer for offering too much, too late in a career. If management can convince Gasol to take a cut, around $8 to $10 million per year, then there’s real value in keeping him.

Serge Ibaka

Unlike Gasol, Ibaka isn’t as old but certainly isn’t young, either. Yet history tells us that the 30-year old might be looking for one final, big contract. Not to say that he’s looking for his last contract ever, but that he’ll be looking to get as much guaranteed money as possible.

For what it’s worth, Ibaka is having one of the better shooting seasons of his career. He is shooting 52.8 percent from the field and 40.8 percent from three, according to Basketball-Reference.com.

Additionally, he ranks 80th on ESPN’s real plus-minus scale at 0.75. That’s not the most exemplary post of his career but still values him right near Donovan Mitchell and ten spots ahead of Steven Adams, a player of similar contract and caliber. Perhaps his greatest attribute, though, is his ability to go beyond the arc. Although he is in the midst of his best outside shooting season yet, this skill is essential to draw opponents away from the basket and being a credible threat, smaller guards like Kyle Lowry and VanVleet can attack the basket more easily.

Be that as it may, he has not been statistically on par with Gasol in this aspect. Per Cleaning the Glass, Gasol lineups finish at an average of 63.9 percent at the rim while Ibaka lineups finish at approximately 61.1 percent. To be fair, Ibaka has been on the floor for about 500 more possessions over the year, which may generate some difference in percentages. But it should also be taken into account that Ibaka’s lineups also do not shoot the three as well as Gasol’s lineups: 36.7 to 39.9 percent on average.

Of course, that doesn’t mean that he can’t continue to improve in these aspects of his game. Toronto’s best bet, and one with some recent history, is to sign him to a deal like Brook Lopez got from the Milwaukee Bucks for four years, $52 million.

It is not a splashy contract for Ibaka, and it is a contract that values winning over money, but it would keep him in a city that he clearly adores and with fans that adore him just as much.

Fred VanVleet

Here’s the biggest chip in the whole lot. VanVleet has shown vast improvements over the two seasons and especially this season. He’s averaging 17.7 points and 6.7 assists per game while nearly playing 36 minutes each time he steps on the court. Moreover, his shooting has stayed consistent and is averaging 41.0 percent from the field and 38.9 percent from three, nearly the same from last year with many more attempts per game.

Because of a lackluster free agency class and middling draft prospects, VanVleet is seen as a big player on the market, who SportsNet figured to be worth somewhere around $22 million per season. Signing VanVleet to that coupled with Siakam’s contract would gobble up just around $51 million per year and would only increase as Siakam’s contract blossoms. And, VanVleet may garner more money depending on the desperation from other teams.

Fortunately, VanVleet has been on the record with management and others about his desire to stay in Toronto, which means he might just choose comfort over money. Plus, being a part of a winning culture is a big driver for some players. VanVleet is always betting on himself, but hopefully, the price tags can match.

What can we expect from our current under contract players?

There are really three to five key players still in the mix for Toronto: Terence Davis II, OG Anunoby, Norman Powell, Chris Boucher, and Matt Thomas. Davis has the gumption to be on this roster for a long time and he’s learning from some of the best guards in the league, so he should continue to improve with the more time he spends with them. He’s on a cheap deal, so unless he dramatically falls off then he should be a big part of the future.

OG Anunoby has also stepped up his game lately and is one of the better wing defenders not only on the team but in the league. If he can continue his growth, he’ll be a great piece to keep alongside Siakam in terms of length and athleticism. If his streaky shooting subsides, too, then he may become just as important as any other starter on the team right now.

Norman Powell is an interesting case. He’s still young and has the confidence of a young buck. His ferocious dunks inspire glee throughout Scotiabank Arena. He’s making a fair amount of money and has been more or less proving his worth this season. Still, he’s the ultimate “No, no, no, YES!” type of player. As much as he’s been feeling himself this year, it’s still unsure if he’s reliable yet.

Chris Boucher is unafraid of any moment and doesn’t back down even if he’s likely to get embarrassed. Check that DeMar DeRozan dunk from earlier this season, if you’ve forgotten. Be that as it may, he’s super streaky and his shot seems slow. With that and a skinny frame, it’s hard to see him being able to find a comfortable spot in the league. Depending on what he’s offered from other teams, the Raptors might choose to let him go play elsewhere if the price is too high.

Lastly, there’s Matt Thomas, our proper 3-point shooting threat. He’s got a stroke from deep, but can’t defend to save his own butt. Plenty of times he’s looked absolutely bonkers confused on defense and has missed switches and assignments. If he becomes playable on that end of the floor, then he could potentially become a poor man’s version of J.J. Redick or Kyle Korver.