Norman Powell is finally starting to live up to his potential. As a result, the time might be right for the Toronto Raptors to sell high.
I’m sure just seeing the headline, most fans would be outraged at even entertaining the idea of trading Norman Powell. The Toronto Raptors plucked him out of the second round. After years of struggling with consistency, Powell has finally emerged as a strong two-way contributor.
On the season, Powell is averaging 16.4 points, 3.7 rebounds, 1.8 assists and 1.3 steals per game. He is connecting on almost 40 percent of his 3s, while taking 5.4 per game. Not only that, but in 23 games as a starter, Powell increased his scoring average to 18.8 points per game.
Powell just turned 27 years old in May. He is entering the prime of his career. Powell should be able to step into the starting lineup when Kyle Lowry is gone. Powell along with Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet and OG Anunoby would give the Toronto Raptors a nice core to build around.
While all of that sounds nice, life just isn’t that simple. This is especially true in the NBA, a salary cap league, where the collective bargaining agreement penalizes teams for excessive spending.
It is no secret that the Raptors are keeping their powder dry for next summer when Giannis Antetokounmpo can become an unrestricted free agent. As such, the Toronto Raptors are not expected to make any big moves between now and then.
This year’s draft doesn’t feature any potential franchise players like Zion Williamson or Luka Doncic. There are a number of solid role players. The Raptors will hope they can find a rotation player at no. 28. Beyond that, the team will likely try to re-sign a few of their own players and look to keep the current roster mostly intact.
Chasing a superstar like Giannis can be a double-edged sword. The Raptors need to have the cap space to sign him. That means management must avoid taking on any long-term contracts in order to maintain flexibility for the future.
Instead of kick-starting a rebuild after Kawhi Leonard left, the Raptors decided to stand pat. They doubled down and signed Lowry to a one-year, $31 million contract extension. It would not be surprising to see Marc Gasol and/or Serge Ibaka sign similar one-year extensions in the offseason.
This strategy allows the Raptors to stay competitive now, with an eye towards the future. However, life is about to get more complicated for Masai Ujiri and Bobby Webster.
Siakam signed a four-year, $130 million contract extension last summer. VanVleet is eligible for a new contract this summer. With Lowry nearing the end of his career, VanVleet is viewed as the Raptors’ point guard of the future.
The Raptors want to keep VanVleet long-term. But VanVleet is expected to receive a significant raise. A new deal starting at $18 million to $20 million annually would further complicate the Raptors’ cap sheet.
The Raptors won’t be the only team with cap space next summer waiting to offer Giannis a max contract. In order to be taken seriously when free agency starts, teams also have to prove that with Giannis they become an instant title contender.
The Milwaukee Bucks have the best record in the NBA. They have the league’s best defensive rating and the sixth-best offense. Giannis isn’t leaving that situation to go join a lottery team.
Back in 2010, the New York Knicks put themselves in a position to lure LeBron James to the Big Apple. Everyone knows how that turned out. LeBron chose Miami because it gave him the best opportunity to win a title.
The Raptors should follow the Clippers’ lead
The Los Angeles Clippers are the perfect example of how to have it all. After moving on from Lob City, the team appeared to be headed into a rebuild. The Clippers surprised everyone last season when they snagged the eight seed and gave the Warriors a run for their money in the first round.
The team had a solid nucleus. They were just missing that one superstar. Then the Clippers went out and added Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Now they are viewed as one of three teams capable of hoisting the Larry O’Brien Trophy on October 13th.
The most important thing the Clippers did during that stretch was trading Tobias Harris to the Philadelphia 76ers. Harris was a borderline All-Star at the time of the trade. He was averaging 20.9 points, 7.9 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game.
The Clippers knew that keeping Harris would be expensive. He turned down an $80 million contract extension in July 2018. Harris did so, in order to play out the final year of his deal in an attempt to sign an even bigger contract the following summer.
Harris bet on himself and he was right. The 76ers rewarded him with a five-year deal worth $180 million.
If the Clippers had kept Harris and tried to re-sign him, they would not have had the flexibility to add Leonard and George. Instead, the Clippers moved him. In return, they got two future first-round picks, plus Landry Shamet who was taken no. 26 overall in the 2018 draft.
On the flip side, the 76ers now find themselves on the hook paying $30 million-plus over the next four seasons for someone that has never made the All-Star team. Committing big money to such a player can be dangerous.
In the summer of 2017, the Miami Heat handed out big contracts to Kelly Olynyk (four-years, $50 million), James Johnson (four-years, $60 million), Dion Waiters (four-years, $52 million). This was a year after the Heat gave Hassan Whiteside and Tyler Johnson each four years deals worth $98 million and $50 million, respectively.
As a result, the Heat were capped out and stuck with a good team that did not have any chance at making it deep in the playoffs. The Toronto Raptors need to be careful that they don’t follow the same path.
The Raptors find themselves in between the 76ers and the Heat. The 76ers may have overpaid on Harris, but they still have Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid to build around. The Raptors have Siakam, who is a legitimate All-Star and arguably one of the top 15 or 20 players in the NBA. But they don’t have a second star.
Lowry is 34 years old. This season he is playing some of the best basketball of his career. But Lowry can’t keep playing at this level forever.
VanVleet has proven that he can be a high-level starter on a championship team. He is 26 years old and has had a career year. VanVleet is averaging 17.6 points, 6.6 assists, and 1.9 steals per game.
The two other key players on the roster are Anunoby and Powell. Committing big money to both will limit what moves the Raptors can make in the future.
Anunoby is quietly becoming one of the best individual defenders in the entire Association. He has the ideal measurements for a small forward (6-foot-8 with a 7-foot-2 wingspan). Anunoby is only 22 and just scratching the surface of his potential. He is also eligible for a rookie scale contract extension this summer.
As for Powell, he simply doesn’t have the same upside. If it’s between keeping Anunoby or Powell, the choice should be obvious. Anunoby is bigger. He is a better and more versatile defender. He is also four years younger.
I know you are asking, why don’t the Raptors just keep both? Well, if the Raptors want to have a chance to sign Giannis, they won’t be able to.
Powell’s contract status
In the fall of 2017, Powell signed a four-year, $42 million contract extension. The final year of that contract is a player option. As a result, Powell has the ability to opt-out of his current deal and become a free agent next summer.
If Powell exercises his fourth-year option, the Raptors might be able to keep both him and Anunoby. That depends on where the salary cap ends up. But if Powell opts out, the Raptors won’t be able to maintain his cap hold and sign Giannis.
Given everything that Powell brings to the floor, expect him to opt-out. Powell is set to earn $11.6 million in 2021-22. Take a look around the rest of the league and you will see that is below market value.
Powell is not an All-Star. But he is a solid 3-and-D type player. Teams covet what Powell brings to the floor. That’s why a player of his caliber will get paid.
Buddy Hield signed a four-year, $94 million contract. Caris LeVert signed a three-year, $52.5 million contract. Kelly Oubre Jr. and Danny Green both sign two-year, $30 million deals.
One player to watch this offseason is Malik Beasley with the Minnesota Timberwolves. Beasley turned down a three-year, $30 million contract before the start of the season. Beasley is a good player and has shown flashes when given consistent playing time.
Beasley was traded to the Wolves at the trade deadline. In 14 games after the trade, Beasley averaged 20.7 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 1.9 assists per game. Keeping Beasley will be a priority for the Wolves this offseason, but it is going to cost them. Whatever deal Beasley gets should be viewed as a baseline for Powell and the Raptors in any future negotiations.
In order to keep Powell beyond next season, the Raptors will need to offer him at least $15 million annually, if not more. That along with new contracts for Siakam, VanVleet, and Anunoby would all but eliminate the team’s ability to carve out max cap space for Giannis.
Meanwhile, we have seen in recent history that two-way wings are one of the most valuable commodities in the NBA.
The Denver Nuggets got a first-round pick for Beasley and Juancho Hernangomez. The Clippers gave up a future first and second for Marcus Morris. Those deals don’t rise to the level of the Harris trade, but first-round picks are key pieces for any team trying to build a contender.
The 2021 NBA Draft is projected to be one of the deepest in the last five or 10 years. First-round picks are locked into cost-controlled four-year deals. Moving Powell for one or two future picks might be the best decision the Raptors can make. This is especially true since there is a real risk the team won’t be able to keep him beyond next season.
Trading Powell in the offseason is premature. That is unless the Raptors get seriously blown away by an offer.
But you can bet Ujiri will be reading the tea leaves. If it looks like Powell is going to opt-out, Ujiri should seriously consider moving him before next year’s trade deadline. It would give the front office more trade chips. It would also clean up the books enough to allow the Toronto Raptors to make a serious run at Giannis.