Toronto Raptors: Expectations for Raptors in 2020/21 season

The NBA off-season for 2020 has almost run its course, and the Toronto Raptors appear weaker as a roster from the event. The 2020/21 season maybe the Raptors’ worst since 34 wins in 2012/13.

Perhaps the COVID-19 pandemics’ economic effects have forced the Toronto Raptors‘ ownership group to consider limiting their financial commitments beyond 2021. It may also be the dream of acquiring a superstar talent in the 2021 off-season that explains the Toronto Raptors’ decisions this year.

Some see the acquisitions of Alex Len, Aron Baynes, and DeAndre’ Bembry with the return of Fred VanVleet in free agency as a successful off-season. It can only be described as such if you want limited financial commitments beyond this coming basketball season.

The 2020/21 edition of the Toronto Raptors is not better than the team that completed a shortened and interrupted 2019/20. A run of seven consecutive playoff appearances may be in jeopardy because of Masai Ujiri and Bobby Webster’s recent decisions.

A decision to offer Serge Ibaka a one year deal at 9 million when two or three years at the same money would have been a reasonable fit feels disappointing. While Serge Ibaka would have made more sense to bring back to Toronto, even a returning Marc Gasol would have been easy to re-sign if more than one year was the Raptors’ negotiating position.

With most of the core group of players still under a contract that won an NBA Title in 2019 and failed to return to the Eastern Conference Final this year by one win or six points, the new additions to the roster are an underwhelming announcement.

The Toronto Raptors won 51 games this past season and had a winning percentage of .736. They have won 50 plus games in each of the last five seasons. With training camps to begin in less than a week, December 1st, 2020, the only question is, what are the expectations for the  Toronto Raptors in the 2020/21 season?

The Toronto Raptors continued success mortgaged for an uncertain future.

The 2021 off-season may not begin until sometime in late July or early August, with the 2021 NBA Finals expected to take place between the 8th-22nd of July. Therefore, hoarding salary cap space for a future transaction, the impending free agency of Giannis Antetokounmpo, is self-sabotage of the team’s continued success for a dream scenario.

It’s also a wish based on no empirical evidence that betrays the smart methodical construction of a winning NBA franchise model orchestrated by Masai Ujiiri, the team president, and Bobby Webster, the general manager.

This tactic’s history, saving salary cap space, is disastrous for teams who have tried it. Perhaps the most recent example is the New York Knicks in 2019 when they had 70 million in cap space to spend on free agents. Their 2019/20 season record was 21-45 with Julius Randle being the best player they acquired.

They failed to acquire Kevin Durant or Kyrie Irving, as was widely rumored. Further, the Toronto Raptors have never signed a big named free agent unless Hedo Turkoglu counts as such, and he was traded after one disastrous year.

Ultimately, Giannis Antetokounmpo will garner interest from several teams and make the most money by re-signing in Milwaukee at five years and over 220 million dollars. All the salivating around the NBA could end abruptly if the “Greek Freak’s” decision, on December 21st, 2020, is to extend his contract. Teams that are plotting and planning for the opposite to happen may have to adjust their plans.

If the Toronto Raptors are no longer a top-five team in the Eastern Conference and only five or six players under contract in 2021/22, they have no shot at attracting Giannis Antetokounmpo and will have ended a run of successful basketball for no good reason.

Toronto Raptors’ weaknesses were not addressed and more created.

The Toronto Raptors off-season weakened the team further than it was, and they won 51 games in 2020. The chief deficiencies on this team were points scored in the paint (21st in the NBA), scoring consistently as the Raptors were 14th overall in points scored, size and length at the point guard position, and now lost rim protection.

The Toronto Raptors dominated games when their defense got them easy opportunities in transition and on the fastbreak. Still, head coach Nick Nurse’s offensive schemes rely heavily on three-point shots as the team took over 37 per game representing 42 percent of their total shot attempts per game.

DeAndre’ Bembry (26.9 percent for his career) and Alex Len (33.3 percent for his career) are not great or consistent three-point shooters. With Len not being a good post player and Bembry being limited offensively. Nick Nurse will have to find ways to involve Alex Len in the offense around the basket, something he didn’t do with Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol.

DeAndre’ Bembry is not a player who can shoot well consistently. The Raptors did not need more defense on the bench; they needed scoring. There are many examples of how they went cold from the field shooting the basketball, including a double-overtime victory in the playoffs against the Boston Celtics in 2020. The Raptors went scoreless in the final four minutes of that game’s regulation time.

According to Sportsnet:

"The weakness in Bembry’s game is he has yet to develop a good outside shot."

The return of Fred VanVleet, a splendid talent who competes hard all over the court, continues a practice of employing two short point guards in the starting line-up. The vertical deficiencies in Fred VanVleet and Kyle Lowry’s physical statures hamper the Raptors’ defensively. They cannot vertically challenge shooters effectively, and it limits their ability to affect passing lanes as the wingspan both guards provide is not ideal.

While Alex Len and Aron Baynes will provide the frontcourt size, neither center has ever been a starter, and additional minutes don’t necessarily mean better stats but exposes flaws.
Further, Alex Len has averaged one blocked shot per game in his career, with Aron Baynes less adept, averaging .5 per game. Considering how aggressive the Toronto Raptors are with their perimeter defense, a lack of rim protection can nullify its effects.

Below is an example of how Aron Baynes has the lateral quickness to stay with a guard but not the athleticism to contend with an attack at the rim.

Finally, the Toronto Raptors’ transactions this off-season weaken the bench, which featured Serge Ibaka and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson in 2020. Also, deducted from this team are about 15 rebounds per game without Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol, and the Toronto Raptors were 11th overall rebounding the basketball in 2020.

What is the Toronto Raptors’ place in the Eastern Conference now?

The Toronto Raptors have been an elite team in the NBA’s Eastern Conference, finishing 2nd overall in the east the past two seasons. The Toronto Raptors’ dominance of the Eastern Conference appears to be at an end now.

The Brooklyn Nets have a healthy Kevin Durant and hopefully healthy and focused Kyrie Irving ready to compete. The Boston Celtics added Jeff Teague, a backup point guard, and Tristan Thompson, adding depth to a squad that was an Eastern Conference finalists in 2020.

The Miami Heat are likely to get better after an NBA Finals appearance in 2020. The Philadelphia 76ers have also made moves to strengthen their roster, adding Dwight Howard, Seth Curry, and Danny Green.

The Milwaukee Bucks have gotten better after a dominant 2019/20 campaign, trading for Jrue Holiday, while the Toronto Raptors have gotten weaker. Considering the changes made to the top teams in the Eastern Conference, the Toronto Raptors will be lucky to finish sixth in 2021.

This will mean beginning the 2021 playoffs on the road and a potential early exit in the first round. The one saving grace is that the entire 2020/21 season will be all road games for the Toronto Raptors playing in the Amalie Arena in Tampa Bay.

At least the team’s core members have the experience and know-how to overcome unfamiliar surroundings while trying to win games, and the 2020 NBA Florida bubble is an example. Unless the management team is willing to make more moves, such as trading Kyle Lowry,  to upgrade the team’s talent at other positions, 2021 and beyond could be a miserable time for the Raptors’ faithful.