It might be an understatement to say that the Toronto Raptors are having a surprising season so far.
Let’s face it. The Toronto Raptors are nowhere close to the team they were last season. They just aren’t. This comes as a big surprise for many of us who believed they were still going to be a top 5-6 team going forward; even when weighing the losses of Gasol and Ibaka.
So the biggest surprise may be that the Raptors have a 5-8 record, but that’s too easy a surprise to talk about. We know they can’t play offense and defense well simultaneously, — in December, they had the third-best defense and worst offense in the league; and in January, they have the second-best offense and third-worst defense — they can’t close off 4th quarters, and they have only one playable center in Boucher.
Now, let’s start by surprise number one, the Raptors’ perfect pick up.
Baynes is not an important rotation player for Toronto Raptors
One point I made when I wrote about Aron Baynes being the perfect pick up for the Raptors was his three-point shooting. He shot 35 percent from three and more than proved that he was a steady below-average three-point shooter last season. What I failed to see at the time was how misleading that percentage was. Baynes’ three-point percentage was inflated due to a hot start when he shot 44 percent in the first 12 games of last season; his career 31.6 three-point percentage is much more reflective of his shooting capabilities.
Shooting the three at an acceptable rate was never going to be a distinguishing factor if Baynes was gonna get playing time or not. Baynes is a career 31.6 three-point shooter and I don’t think the Raptors were banking on that part of his game. But if he also cannot finish around the rim or find any role at all on offense, that’s when it gets tough to warrant Baynes with any minutes.
Baynes was acquired for what he can do on defense. Though he is slightly underperforming on that end, it is not too far off from what we expected — he does look a little slower. But he’s no Rudy Gobert, and it’s tough to keep him from getting real minutes if the offense is a 4v5 with him on.
No one expected him to fill the void left of Gasol and Ibaka, but we also didn’t expect him to be a complete non-factor for the team. There are still 59 games left in the season and despite the recent struggles, he is still the starting center for the Raptors. Just how many more chances will get before he goes back to the doghouse.
VanVleet (no not Siakam) is Toronto Raptors’ leading scorer
This is not a knock on Fred VanVleet who has been awesome for the better part of the season. But no one would’ve expected Pascal Siakam to regress as much as he did. Last season, Siakam averaged 23 points (on 51.2 EFG%), was an All-Star, got an All-NBA nod, and was the engine that made the Raptors such a powerhouse in the regular season. The Raptors were 7.7 points better when Siakam was on the court which ranks him in the 87th percentile, per Cleaning The Glass.
Through 13 games this season, Siakam is averaging 19 points (on 48.6 EFG%) and the team is 11 points worst when he is on the court, which ranks him in the 20th percentile. There’s a huge discrepancy between this season and last. It does feel weird because there are games where Siakam looks like a more complete player than he ever was last year.
The two following games are perfect examples of this:
- Against the Kings: 17 points/9 rebounds/12 assists /63.6 % FG
- Against the Trailblazers: 22 points/13 rebounds/10 assists/52.9 % FG
His best games this season have been when he has been dishing out dimes. But he has failed to make that a consistent trend; he’s had four games where he’s gotten 6 plus assists, while in the rest of the games, he’s gotten four or fewer assists.
If Siakam being used as a playmaker the reason VanVleet is the team’s leading scorer, then that’s fine as long as Siakam fully buys into taking on that role. Fully buying into the role and averaging 6-7 assists per game should be the goal for Siakam. The shooting comes and goes, but the passing isn’t something that should come and go.
As for VanVleet, he’s been doing good and has increased the areas from where he can score (mid-range and floater area). However, he has regressed to his old ways shooting poorly around the rim; despite looking like he improved in that department earlier on.
The rate that he has been going to the free-throw line is also concerning, considering how much time the ball is in his hands. He is going to the free-throw line only two times a game. VanVleet has to get to the line at least 4-5 times a game. Too often he drives right under the rim but dribbles it out.
I’m not too sure he’ll be the team’s leading scorer through 72 games, but if he is, let’s hope that VanVleet addresses his problems and Siakam averages more assists than he currently is.
Chris Boucher has a chance at both Most Improved Player and Sixth Man of the year
If Toronto Raptors fans had a chance to guess who would win the Most Improved Player candidate on the team, the majority of people would’ve uttered OG Anunoby’s name. And if they were ever going to have a Sixth Man of the Year candidate, our first guess would’ve been Norman Powell who was in that conversation last season. Fast forward 13 games, the player in contention for both of those awards is Montreal-native, Chris Boucher.
Boucher signed himself a big contract in the offseason ($13.5 million/2 years) and he has proven that he is worth every penny. He has improved in every statistical category this season. He also has the second-highest PER (29.07) in the league, only behind Nikola Jokic (a stat that values per-minutes productivity).
Boucher’s scoring numbers will ultimately regress throughout the season as he’s been scoring at an extremely efficient rate; he has an effective field goal rate of 69.5, which is not a sustainable number, but impressive nonetheless through 13 games.
Boucher has made a very impressive jump from being the team’s “energy guy” to being a crucial piece to what the Raptors do right. And that reflects clearly in his per-game stats.
- Boucher 2019-2020: 13.2 minutes/6.6 PTS/3.5 REB/1.0 BLK/47.2 FG%/32.2 3P%
- Boucher 2019-2020: 23.8 minutes/16.1 PTS/7 REB/2.5 BLK/60.3 FG%/46.9 3P%
The counting stats alone solidify his case as a MIP candidate but his impact on the team is what’s most impressive. The following are his on/off stats from last season compared to this season.
When on the court, per 100 possessions played:
- Boucher 2019-2020:
- -0.6 points on offense
- +1.4 points allowed on defense
- Difference of -2.1 (ranking him at the 38th percentile among all players)
- Boucher 2020-2021:
- +13.4 points on offense
- +0.3 points allowed on defense
- Difference of +8.7 (ranking him at the 82nd percentile among all players)
The most fascinating number has to be the +13.4 points he brings on offense when on the court. The team becomes a top 3 offensive team in the league when he is on the court, scoring 119.3 points per 100 possessions. However, when he is off the court, that number plummets to 106.6, on par with the Detroit Pistons as the 6th worst.
If he continues to play at this level and coach Nurse keeps him as a bench player through the whole season, there is no doubt that he’ll be a prime candidate for Sixth Man of Year.
The Raptors season has been relatively desolate so far (although it is slowly getting better). So being in a world where Chris Boucher has a chance to be the first player to win Sixth Man of the Year and Most Improved Player awards in the same season is one bright spot to think about.