To say that the reputation of Toronto Raptors star Pascal Siakam as a franchise player has eroded in the minds of some might be an understatement. Some impatient fans and larger NBA media as a whole went from “Pascal is the future of this franchise!” to “Pascal has only 2 moves! Trade him while he still has some value!” It makes no sense!
Flashback a year and a half ago to the 2019-2020 season. The Raptors were fighting for the best record in the league with Siakam finishing as a Top 10 MVP candidate. We all know how Siakam’s career trajectory took a downwards turn since the COVID-19 induced suspension.
On one hand, some believe that he has plateaued and there is nothing more to see from the 27-year-old Cameroonian. On the flip side, call it faith or delusion, but I truly believe that Siakam will come back better than ever.
Now in his prime at 27 years old Siakam has a history of overachieving. Considering his meteoric rise from an unknown draft prospect to becoming one of the better two-way forwards in the league, Siakam still has the talent and motor to take his game to the next level.
3 bold predictions for Toronto Raptors star Pascal Siakam this season
1. Bounce back from 3-point territory
The Raptors organization and fans are hoping for Siakam to regain his confidence as he comes off shoulder surgery in June for a torn labrum. Jumpstarting his career back to potential MVP form begins by fixing his confidence to take and make more threes.
His career-best shooting percentage from 3-point land came back in 2018-2019, where he finished at 36.9%. The 2019-2020 season saw Siakam attempt a career-high 365 attempts from 3 point land while making 165 of them, good for a 35.9% from deep.
His self-confidence, along with his shot, took a swan dive once he got back on the court in the bubble. Spicy P fizzled out as he made 1.4 Threes a game, good for just 26% of his attempts. Those shooting woes continued into the 2020-21 season, where he attempted and made fewer threes (73 of 246) than the prior season.
Pascal Siakam must improve from 3-point land for the Toronto Raptors.
Comparing his 2019-20 season to 2020-21, you can see that he struggled to drain pull-up 3s last year (making only 23.7% vs. 34% the year prior). When taking open threes (defenders 4-6 ft away), he only made 20% of his shots last season vs. 36.5% the season prior.
It’s not that he was taking bad shots or ones that he hasn’t made before- it looks more like a case of Siakam overthinking and getting in his own way.
Even the best shooters go through slumps. Whether you believe it was post-COVID complications, confidence issues, or opposing teams just figuring his game out, Siakam will have yet another opportunity to hush the critics.
Siakam will regain his stride and drain at least 35% or more from beyond the arc this year.
2. Career high in points per game
Once the 2020-21 season came to an end, there was no one more publicly chastised on this team than Siakam. I get it, fans expect max performance from players making max money. Still, his scoring numbers didn’t look as bad as the haters would make it seem.
What’s interesting about his drop-off is the fact that even though his 3 point percentage fell, it barely made a dent in his scoring average, as he went from 22.9 PPG in 2019-20 to 21.4 last season.
That’s because his improved mid-range game allowed him to keep scoring even when he wasn’t hitting from long distance. More than half his two-point field goals attempted came from less than 10 ft away from the basket and he made 55.3% of those.
Even when defenders were in close range (2-4 ft away), he was able to finish 51.4% of those attempts. It also helps that he drained a career-high 82.7% from the charity stripe.
Pascal Siakam must be a better scorer for the Toronto Raptors.
For a Raptors squad that might lack some extra scoring punch this year (which was quite apparent on opening night), Siakam, OG Anunoby, and Fred VanVleet will be relied on heavily to carry most of the offensive load.
If defenders start to respect his 3-point shot again and defend him tough on the perimeter, Siakam can defer back to slashing ways and get a higher percentage look at the rim or kick it out to the open man.
An uptick in 3-point percentage combined with his mid-range prowess and usual aggressive style of attacking the basket will most definitely boost Siakam’s scoring numbers.
I would not be surprised to see him average a career-high 23-24 points per game this season.
3. Game Winners/Go-ahead shots
In his interview with Sopan Deb of The New York Times, Pascal Siakam spoke candidly about his role on the team after he was given his max contract extension.
"I just felt like there wasn’t that much level of communication…It was like, we got you the max contract, but are you the guy? I think that’s something that I was struggling with….I had the contract, but I never really felt like I was the guy, to be honest…"
Regardless of how Siakam felt about it, when it came to clutch situations, Coach Nurse actually showed a lot of trusts and gave him every opportunity to be the man last season.
As fate would have it, on multiple occasions he got to his spots but the Basketball Gods were not kind as his shots fell short or met with gut-wrenching in-and-outs at the rim.
Even if you are skeptical about his ability to be the go-to guy, you still have to admit that Siakam is a versatile player who can score well and whose long wingspan and quick closeouts allow him to defend opposing teams and cause matchup problems.
Combine that with his ability to move the ball in transition alongside Raptors vets VanVleet and Anunoby, and the addition of the new kids on the block like Scottie Barnes and Precious Achiuwa and company, and we might have a resurgence of the deadly fast break on the move again.
Pascal Siakam will fix his issues in the clutch.
He averaged a career-high 4.5 assists per game last season, and the team will need more of his ability to get his teammates involved early and often.
With Siakam slated to miss some time to start the season, the Raptors will defer to the other potential closers on this team down the stretch. Once he’s back on the floor- he will once again be put in a position to execute in the final minutes of games.
With Lowry’s departure this off-season, the keys to the franchise are officially in Siakam’s hands and no doubt his usage will be high this year. Can he be The Man or will he take a backseat to OG Anunoby who is also poised for a breakout season?
That remains to be seen, but what we do know is that he can get back to being an efficient, key contributor for a team that has aspirations to get back to the mountain top.
Siakam will drain at least 3 game winners/go-ahead jumpers this season.