The Toronto Raptors are smack dab in the middle of the Eastern Conference right now, as their 38-38 record has them fighting for their postseason lives in a year where many expected them to improve upon their 48 wins from the previous campaign.
Toronto and the Atlanta Hawks have the same record, with the Miami Heat one seed above those two warring factions at No. 7 overall. The Heat will welcome whoever earns the No. 8 seed in a game that will send the winner to the postseason, while the loser of the Atlanta-Toronto war will likely take on the Chicago Bulls in a win-or-go-home game.
The Raptors have shown they can hold their own against these teams in the regular season, but the playoffs are still a totally different animal. Every flaw is exposed to an uncomfortable degree, and every positive aspect of Toronto’s style will need to be put on full display for them to have a shot.
The Raptors have advantages over Chicago, Atlanta, and Miami that could help them snatch a few hard-fought victories away from them in what promises to be a true battle royale. Only by asserting their dominance in these respective areas can the Raptors escape this tournament.
1 advantage Toronto Raptors have over Bulls, Hawks, Heat
Chicago Bulls: Turnovers
The Bulls rank 13th in the NBA in turnovers per game, though that number would be much worse if they played Toronto frequently. In all three of the Raptors’ matchups with Chicago, Billy Donovan’s side has struggled with holding onto the ball and generating turnovers to make up for it on the other end.
Toronto’s mission statement on the floor is to force their opponent into as many turnovers as possible while limiting the turnovers committed on their end. While difficult to implement every night, the Bulls have shown to be fairly unresponsive when confronted like this.
The Toronto Raptors must force turnovers against the Bulls.
Toronto is willing to make concessions on that side of the floor, including allowing some open 3-pointers, to preserve a style that can overwhelm smaller and more inexperienced backcourt. With the backcourt beat up by injuries, this alignment has been confusing enough to befuddle Chicago despite some very close calls.
Having isolation scorers like DeMar DeRozan can help make up for poor performance in this area, but OG Anunoby locking him down in prior matchups should give the Raptors lots of confidence. Toronto also has the benefit of Jakob Poeltl, who could make life harder on Nikola Vucevic down low.
Atlanta Hawks: Overall Defense
While Quin Snyder made his bones in the NBA as a standout coach with the Jazz who built a style around Rudy Gobert protecting the rim, he hasn’t had the time nor personnel to implement his vision with the Hawks. This could help Toronto in a hypothetical matchup.
The Hawks are currently 25th in the league in points allowed, showing that even Clint Capela and Onyeka Onkongwu aren’t enough to stop teams from coming into the paint. Whatever positives Dejounte Murray and De’Andre Hunter have on defense are washed away by two huge negatives in Trae Young and Bogdan Bogdanovic.
The Raptors have a better defense than the Hawks.
The fact that Toronto went so long without quality rim protection was baffling. Not only has the team been much better on that end with Christian Koloko in the lineup, but the Poeltl acquisition has helped this starting lineup become one of the best units in the game on that end.
The only teams who are allowing fewer points per game than Toronto are Cleveland, who is in first place by a mile, and arguably two of the four best teams in the league in Boston and Philadelphia. That should give Toronto confidence, even against a Hawks team with some offensive firepower.
Miami Heat: Starting Lineup Scoring
This season, the list of teams with a less dynamic and less explosive offense than the Raptors is very short. However, Toronto’s recent drubbing of Miami at home not only got Tracy McGrady very hot, but it illustrated how to beat the Heat in the postseason.
The Heat are now dead last in the league in points per game despite the presence of Kyle Lowry and one of the game’s best veteran wings in Jimmy Butler. Perhaps McGrady’s criticism are valid, as the Heat can look a step slow when Butler is compromised and Tyler Herro isn’t white hot.
The Toronto Raptors can outscore the Heat.
Heat-Raptors contests have almost become famous for their ugliness. These two teams are built so similarly from a stylistic point of view, meaning that there are plenty of games with low scores, plenty of stagnant offense, and so much ferocious defense that it looks like the 2003 Pistons playing the 2003 Pistons.
The key to upsetting Miami will be getting hot early, which players like Scottie Barnes and Pascal Siakam have already proven they can do. While Butler being back will certainly change the calculus, the Raptors should head into any Heat matchup brimming with confidence.