The Toronto Raptors missed the playoffs for just the second time in the last decade in 2023, but they have a talented roster with the potential to finish in the top six in the Eastern Conference. Losing Fred VanVleet in free agency (subscription required) hurt, but they quickly inked Dennis Schroder as his replacement. Fans have heard the Pascal Siakam rumors, but a massive trade looks like the only way their roster will significantly change before training camp.
Fans know Masai Ujiri drives a difficult bargain in trade talks, so do not expect a Siakam trade anytime soon. The Raptors are currently focused on staying in contention and doing what is necessary to improve their championship odds. They won’t be actively buying on the trade market until February’s deadline, but Toronto is closer than fans think to the title picture.
A few minor tweaks may be all the Raptors need to be back in the playoffs with a shot at making a deep run. The Eastern Conference is wide open, especially after the Celtics’ moves this offseason and the 76ers dealing with James Harden’s trade request. The Bucks and Heat will be back in the hunt, but there is room for Toronto to return to the playoffs and make a deep run if things break right.
Pieces Toronto Raptors must find to become true title contenders
5. Defensive identity
Despite missing the playoffs, the Raptors finished 11th in defensive rating last season. They have a ton of length and athletic ability, which allowed former head coach Nick Nurse to reach deep into his bag of tricks on the defensive end of the floor.
How will things change under new head coach Darko Rajakovic? The 44-year-old talked about his philosophy during his introductory press conference, and he noted that he wants input from the players. Toronto’s goals will be to protect the paint and limit corner threes.
Can they find a defensive identity that the entire team buys into? It is an important piece of any title-contending squad. The Denver Nuggets finished 15th in defensive rating last season, which is a rarity. Nearly every year, the champion finishes inside the top ten, and the Toronto Raptors need to get there if they plan on being true title challengers.
4. Backup big man
The Raptors traded for Jakob Poeltl in February and just rewarded him with a new four-year $80 million contract. He is locked in as the team’s starting center next to Pascal Siakam, but do the Raptors need an upgrade behind them?
Chris Boucher is an undersized center, whose 38.3 percent 3-point shooting in 2021 appears to be an outlier. The 6’9 big man can log minutes in the regular season, but will he stick in the playoff rotation?
Precious Achiuwa is another undersized center that cannot stretch the floor. The 23-year-old continues to improve, but he is best suited for a 20-minute per game role and questions remain about his ability to contribute in the playoffs.
Can the Toronto Raptors find a backup big man that can stretch the floor and rebound? They could use Pascal Siakam at the five more in the postseason, but that would mean giving more run to rookie Gradey Dick and seeing Jalen McDaniels blossom into a larger role.
It feels like the Toronto Raptors need one more player to round out their depth. Can Jakob Poeltl match minutes with Joel Embiid in the playoffs? What about if they face the Bucks with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez? Having another versatile option to improve the matchups could be massive as the Raptors look to make a run.
3. Offensive identity
The Raptors’ offensive woes (subscription required), especially in half-court sets, are well-documented. Their lack of shooting and isolation-heavy attack under Nick Nurse are partially to blame, but will that change under Darko Rajakovic?
Fans should expect things to be different with the new head coach leading, and Fred VanVleet’s departure will also play a role. Does Rajakovic make Scottie Barnes the starting point guard and lead ball-handler? How often does he rely on Pascal Siakam to bail out possessions by creating one-on-one?
The new head coach’s system will likely look quite different. He preaches “0.5 basketball” where players shoot, pass, or dribble within half a second. Rajakovic wants his squad to get into the paint and hunt the highest-quality shots.
Can he get the Raptors to buy into this new offensive identity? It could solve the team’s woes, but only if the players are fully onboard. Toronto finished 13th in offensive rating last season, but they want to be in the top ten in 2024. Improvements in the half-court and getting the ball moving would do wonders.
The Toronto Raptors must establish a new pecking order under Rajakovic. With VanVleet in Houston, who takes over as the number two scorer behind Siakam? OG Anunoby and Barnes both want more shots, but which player gets the majority? The team must figure it out if they want to return to the playoffs.
2. Shooting
The Raptors finished 28th in 3-pointers made and 3-point percentage last season. Their struggles to space the floor played a key role in Toronto rating 27th in true shooting percentage and 28th in effective field goal percentage. Things slowed down in the half-court because of the team’s lack of shooting and inability to get past their defender.
Toronto selected arguably the best shooter in the draft in Gradey Dick, but one player isn’t going to fix the problem. Their other primary additions were Dennis Schroder and Jalen McDaniels, who are both below-average and inconsistent shooters.
There will be times when Rajakovic is forced to run a lineup featuring Pascal Siakam, Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl, Schroder, and McDaniels. The best 3-point shooter among that group last season was McDaniels, who made 33.2 percent of his 3-point tries. In the modern NBA, that lineup just does not work, and it underscores the Raptors’ desperate need for shooting.
If Toronto plans on making the playoffs and going on a deep run, they need immediate contributions from Dick and to add a shooter or two before February’s trade deadline. Improving the floor spacing would do wonders for the Toronto Raptors’ half-court offense and overall success, but can they find the right deal?
1. Point guard upgrade
The Raptors want to give Scottie Barnes more offensive responsibility in year three. He averaged 4.8 assists and just 2.0 turnovers per game last season. Pascal Siakam is also a strong playmaker for a forward and someone capable of running the offense, but does Toronto need a point guard upgrade after losing Fred VanVleet in free agency?
They quickly signed Dennis Schroder to be his replacement, but the 6’3 guard has averaged over five assists per game just once in the last five years. The 29-year-old is best suited to be the team’s sixth man. He can get buckets and make plays for others, but Schroder is not a game-changing starting point guard.
Malachi Flynn and Jeff Dotwin are the team’s only other nominal point guards on the roster. Both are best suited to being third-string options that are not part of the nightly rotation at this point in their careers.
The Raptors plan on doing a playmaker-by-committee approach, but they still need a point guard upgrade if they plan on contending for the title in 2024. Whether it is acquiring an unquestioned starter to lead their attack or just another capable rotation player that can complement Barnes, Siakam, and Schroder, Toronto needs someone else they can count on.
The Toronto Raptors are closer to title contention than fans think. Can they add these important pieces to the puzzle and make a deep playoff run in 2024? Stay tuned to find out.
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