The Toronto Raptors are not in a very advantageous position right now. While they have young talent like Scottie Barnes and Gradey Dick to build around, the impending free agency sagas that will impact Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, and Gary Trent Jr. could stand to tear this team apart.
Masai Ujiri appears to be ready to give this core one more big try before throwing his hands up and admitting defeat. If the latter situation happens, Ujiri will likely have no fear of taking a sledgehammer to the roster in pursuit of a more sustainable winner.
The Raptors have very few players that are firmly entrenched on this roster. Many of the team’s best players are in a position to bolt the team, like Fred VanVleet in free agency, and some of the less amazing performers could be cast aside in favor of someone else with a similar ceiling.
The current Raptors roster is likely going to look much different in 2024, as a substandard season might finally be the catalyst that sparks change. Which players will be locked into the 2024 roster, and which ones need to start looking for new apartments?
Which Toronto Raptors will stay on the 2023-24 roster?
Tier 3: Start looking elsewhere, just in case
Kevin Obanor/Mouhamadou Gueye/Ron Harper Jr/Javon Freeman-Liberty: 10%
Jeff Dowtin/Garrett Temple/Malachi Flynn: 15%
Otto Porter Jr/Thad Young: 20%
Gary Trent Jr: 30%
The Exhibit 10 and two-way players all have promise individually, but it takes quite the Herculean effort for someone with their status (or lack of same) within the league to last long with their original team. Freeman-Liberty’s scoring skill might give him a slightly better chance of surviving than the other three.
While Dowtin showed great promise last season, he is hardly regarded as an essential part of the team’s future. Temple is likely a one-year stopgap that is going to provide some veteran leadership, while Flynn will assuredly get a chance to reboot his career away from Toronto.
Will Gary Trent Jr. remain with the Toronto Raptors?
The fact that Young was not ditched when the offseason began speaks to how the front office seems to value what he brings to the table, mainly off the court. Porter has been beaten up quite frequently with injuries, meaning that he will need a terrific 2023 season to convince the front office to stick with him.
Trent is the type of player that Toronto needs more of, and he is still a very young player, but it is hard to see a future in which Barnes, one of Anunoby or Siakam, and Trent all get nine-figure contracts. Still, the Raptors could lock Trent up long-term if some of the big names leave.
Tier 2: Toss-Ups
Markquis Nowell/Chris Boucher: 40%
OG Anunoby: 50%
Pascal Siakam: 60%
While Nowell is a two-way player, his illustrious college career at Kansas State and mercurial passing ability for a player his size might give him a better chance of making the roster than either Harper or Freeman-Liberty. Efficiency might be the key to him sticking around.
Boucher seems like prime trade bait, even if Toronto has been adamant about keeping him on the team. While he is very inconsistent, the Raptors seem to think they have all the ingredients needed to get the dominant Boucher out while keeping the underperforming version at bay.
OG Anunoby could leave the Toronto Raptors.
OG is a complete wild card at this stage, as it remains difficult to see how Toronto values him. While his All-Defensive team nomination played into why Toronto refused to give up on him, will they be willing to pay top dollar for someone who would, at best, be the third option?
Siakam being traded or allowed to leave in free agency would constitute a full-on rebuild. While it seems like Toronto will likely pay top-dollar to keep him due to their refusal to trade him in the offseason. However, one bad run of form could prompt a more significant sell-off from Ujiri and the front office.
Tier 1: They are likely staying
Precious Achiuwa/Jalen McDaniels: 75%
Christian Koloko/Dennis Schroder: 90%
Scottie Barnes/Gradey Dick/Jakob Poeltl: 99%
Achiuwa has shown to be a well above-average defender and a promising athlete who still warrants tons of developmental attention despite some very frustrating play from time to time. McDaniels is in much the same vein, as his contract gives Toronto time to really develop his shooting.
While Koloko might find starting minutes hard to come by in the next few years, the Raptors likely won’t give up on someone who showed so much obvious potential on the defensive side so easily. FIBA World Cup star Schroder could be trade bait in a sell-off scenario, but he will likely be locked in if Toronto is competitive.
The Toronto Raptors won’t move Scottie Barnes.
After signing Poeltl to a huge four-year contract as soon as free agency began and investing what could be their only first-round pick in three years on Dick, the Raptors will likely need to implode to an epic degree for either of them not to be on the 2024 roster.
The one constant amid all the speculation over Toronto’s decision-making is the fact that Barnes is going to remain on this team for 2023 and beyond. The Raptors are wholly committed to turning this raw mound of clay into a consistent All-Star.