Calling the Toronto Raptors a team in flux would be one of the understatements of the year. Masai Ujiri has assembled a team that likely won’t have a shot at winning anything if they sneak into the postseason, yet don’t have the capacity to bottom out and get the No. 1 pick.
Last season was not a catastrophe, but it’s hard to look at it in any sort of positive light. The wins declined from 48 to 41 despite essentially the same team coming back, and a team that earned the No. 5 seed in the Eastern Conference fell out of the playoff picture entirely.
The Raptors are hoping that firing Nick Nurse and letting Fred VanVleet join the Houston Rockets will be enough of a proverbial exorcism to get this team back in the hunt. Sure, it’s a risky bet, but it isn’t without merit due to the team’s strong foundation.
The Raptors need to hope the nightmare doesn’t become a reality once more, as the worst-case scenario can come about for a variety of reasons. The Raptors must hope neither of these three ugly situations ever come to fruition in a pivotal season.
3 scenarios the Toronto Raptors must avoid in 2023-24.
3. Contract squabbles
Toronto had put themselves in a very undesirable position ahead of the 2024 offseason, as three-fifths of their starting lineup (Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, Gary Trent Jr.) are scheduled to hit unrestricted free agency. The way Toronto had handled this has been downright baffling.
Both Anunoby and Siakam have gone on the record stating they love Toronto and desire to play there. Instead of either rewarding that stated loyalty with a contract or starting a rebuild with some trades away, Ujiri has chosen to let them potentially play out the season and hit the open market.
Will contracts impact the Toronto Raptors in 2023?
In much the same the VanVleet discourse got very poisonous near the end of his Raptors tenure, things could get equally nasty if the Raptors are on the edge of the postseason and they have the potential to once again part ways with some of their best names.
The worst part about this entire scenario is the fact that Ujiri has built this prison of his own making. He had multiple opportunities to make a more honest attempt at rebuilding or tanking, and he has constantly decided to thumb his nose at that notion.
2. Middling performance
While some might criticize the Raptors for being unwilling to pick a direction in 2023, Ujiri appears to be angling slightly toward the “win now” side of things. Why else would trade offers for players like Siakam and Anunoby have been consistently rebuffed?
If that is the case, this front office has told the fanbase to hold their feet to the fire if they are unable to perform like a team that can make some noise in the postseason. With their first-round pick likely heading to the Spurs, the least Toronto can do to make up for that pick is get back to the postseason and put up a fight.
Will the Toronto Raptors compete in 2023-24?
The other option, namely performing so poorly they recoup their first-round pick from the Spurs, can only be accomplished if Ujiri senses trouble, decides to renege on his original promise of building a winner this year, and trade away the veteran stars for picks and young players.
The Raptors might be as volatile as any team in the league last season, as very few can claim to have three potential All-Star players on the roster and be in prime position to earn a top pick if everything goes downhill. Getting stuck in the middle, however, could be a death sentence that leaves this team worse off.
1. Scottie Barnes regression
No matter what happens in the team’s regular season schedule, the Raptors need to do everything possible to make sure that Barnes ends up becoming the star player they think he can evolve into. A regression would be a major death knell for Ujiri’s plan.
With Barnes having flatlined as a scorer last season and taken a very small step backward as a 3-point shooter, the idea of him never fixing the flaws in his game shouldn’t be viewed as something totally unreasonable. If he flounders, would a rebuild even make sense?
Will the Toronto Raptors develop Scottie Barnes?
Rajakovic seems ready to unleash Barnes in a position of prominence, leaning into his gifts as a ball-handler and playmaker. With Barnes himself allegedly clocking in at close to 240 pounds, he could make for a very difficult matchup problem against undersized backcourts.
If Barnes puts together another average season, the Raptors could feel some severe hesitation about the idea of ripping everything down to the studs and making Scottie the featured option. Rajakovic will have also failed in his quest to make sure Barnes thrives in his scheme.