RJ Barrett is having a phenomenal 2024.
Since arriving on the Toronto Raptors around New Years he has been on an absolute bender. He averaged 21.8 points, 6.4 rebounds and 4.1 assists in 32 games with the Raptors, shooting 39.2 percent from 3-point range, and was clearly the team's second-best player next to Scottie Barnes.
Only 12 players averaged 21-6-4 last season, most of them All-Stars, and only two players -- LeBron James and Kevin Durant -- did so while shooting at least 39 percent from 3-point range.
Barrett then joined Team Canada for the Paris Olympics and was arguably the team's best player -- and certainly its most consistent -- and was the fourth-leading scorer among all 12 teams at the Olympics.
The Raptors could sell high on RJ Barrett
The expectation is that the Raptors will be overjoyed at what appears to be a step forward for the Toronto native and will move forward with Barrett as a part of their core. Yet just nine months ago when the OG Anunoby trade went down many analysts were decrying Barrett as dead weight in the deal.
What if the Raptors pivoted, selling high on Barrett while his value is greater than it has been since he was drafted? They could use Barrett and his contract to go after another player on the trade market.
Let's see what such a deal could look like, with the Raptors calling up a team far to the south to discuss doing business.
Laying out the trade
The Houston Rockets are on an exciting trajectory, with a deep and multifaceted young core of players and a few targeted veterans to help them grow. Last season they took a step forward to winning 40 games and nearly making the Play-In Tournament (they would have been comfortably in if they played in the Eastern Conference).
This summer was an opportunity for Houston to further commit to their young potential stars, but instead, they kept the powder dry. Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun are both entering their fourth years in the league and are therefore extension eligible; both were drafted the same year as Scottie Barnes, Green two picks ahead.
The Rockets haven't agreed to extensions with either, and there is logic behind both decisions. Green has failed to realize his potential as an on-ball star and likely wants to bet on himself this year to pursue a max deal next summer.
For Sengun, however, he has already broken out and played at an extremely high level. Last season he was legitimately in the All-Star conversation and has an offensive skillset that has earned him the "Jokic 2.0" nickname for his scoring and passing at the center position.
The reason Houston hasn't worked out an extension, at least in part, is that they aren't sure Sengun is their center of the future. The team played its best basketball last season when Sengun was injured and out of the lineup; some of that is schedule luck as they faced a soft lineup of opponents, but some of that is the reality that putting shot-blocking on the court in Sengun's place helped the Rockets' defense lock down opponents.
Would Houston be open to a trade offer for Sengun, then, if it brought in a wing who was both a prolific scorer -- in case Green can't put things together -- and young enough to grow with this roster? If so, perhaps a trade could look like this:
The Houston Rockets kept Jeff Green and Jock Landale around to include as salary matching in a trade, so this works out smoothly for them financially. Barrett gives them a more proven option at shooting guard or small forward and frees the Rockets from being overly reliant on Jalen Green's shot creation.
It also sets them up to make a separate deal for their long-term starting center, potentially using Jalen Green as the asset to chase such a player.
What about Toronto -- if Houston is in on this trade, should the Raptors pull the trigger?
Should the Raptors make this trade?
There is something special about having a hometown player star for your team, and it's very possible that RJ Barrett is taking that step up into stardom that he was supposed to coming out of Duke but never managed to attain in New York. He is a three-level scorer, an underrated playmaker and a strong rebounder, especially for his size. He plays hard on defense and seems to be a high-character person and influence on a locker room. He checks all of the boxes for a player the Raptors would want to have around.
Yet even as things have been trending upwards for Barrett, it's very possible that trend plateaus or even regresses. Barrett had stretches of hot shooting or inspired play in New York only to fall back to earth. On a Raptors team with multiple mouths to feed, it's not a given that Barrett ascends to being worthy of a large load; he could lose efficency while maintaining his volume and be a much less effective player.
That's the probability that has to be balanced by the Raptors, and compared to the addition of Alperen Sengun. His offensive potency is sky-high; one of those 12 players mentioned previously matching Barrett's marks was Sengun, who put up 21.1 points, 9.3 rebounds and five assists last season. The only centers in the last decade to put up those numbers are Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid and DeMarcus Cousins. Go back to the NBA-ABA merger in 1976-77 and you only add Kareem Abdul-Jabbar to the list; he was pretty good.
What's unique about Toronto's roster in comparison to Houston's is that Scottie Barnes is a capable paint protector. Most teams need their center to be the primary rim protector, but the Denver Nuggets cracked the code by adding Aaron Gordon next to Nikola Jokic. The Raptors could do the same thing with Barnes and Sengun.
Trading for Sengun would require another deal to send Jakob Poeltl to another team, and that trade would almost have to bring back a forward. RJ Barrett is playing out of position at small forward but he's the team's only real option at the 3; moving him would make a roster weakness worse.
There is a lot to love about Barrett's fit on the Raptors, but the upside of Sengun is undoubtedly higher. If this trade was on the table, the Raptors would have to think long and hard about it. The possibility of landing a true offensive superstar is hard to pass up.
Grade: A-