The Toronto Raptors hope they have assembled a core of young players ready to ascend in the Eastern Conference, but the chances that they have the pieces in place to be a contender is relatively unlikely.
The problem is that the Raptors' cap sheet is clogged for multiple seasons moving forward, and even if they had the cap room big-name free agents historically don't come to Toronto. They also are probably in the "dead zone" of being too good to get a top draft pick but not good enough to make noise in the playoffs.
That leaves the trade market. A number of small moves are available to them, such as trading Chris Boucher and a second-round pick for a buy-low opportunity for a bench player. If the Raptors want to swing for the fences and add another player to their core, however, the cost is going to be significant.
Who is the best player the Raptors can trade for?
If the Raptors don't want to mortgage the future including all of their draft picks in a trade, and they don't want to crack open their four-man core, can they find a trade for a difference-maker? Can the combination of Bruce Brown and Chris Boucher provide enough salary matching to find a player who moves the needle?
One recent trade proposal suggests that Toronto might just be able to thread the needle. Let's take a closer look and see which All-Star the Raptors could bring to town, and whether the cost is right to take a swing at a higher ceiling.
Laying out the 3-team trade
The New Orleans Pelicans have a problem: they have six starters they are going to try and squeeze into four spots. They have two guards in Dejounte Murray and CJ McCollum and four forwards in Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, Herbert Jones and Trey Murphy III. If they start an actual center, the logjam is going to be painful.
The Pelicans can try to start Zion at center, or to convince two of those players to come off of the bench, but their preferred solution is to move on from Brandon Ingram. The one-time All-Star is expendable if Trey Murphy takes the leap the organization expects, and they have somewhat openly shopped him this summer.
The problem is that Ingram is due for a new contract, one the Pelicans don't want to pay but is also scaring away would-be suitors. That is going to depress his trade value; the question is whether the Pelicans can stomach the thought of trading him at a lower value to be able to move on.
One trade recently proposed by the popular trade site Fanspo looks at the possible future where the Pelicans decide to take their medicine and move Ingram at cost. Such a move helps their long-term books and short-term rotation even if it doesn't "win the trade" at face value.
Here's the 3-team deal as proposed:
The Pelicans get their answer at center in Clint Capela, allowing them to move Daniel Theis into a more suitable bench role. Both Capela and Chris Boucher are also on expiring contracts, allowing the Pelicans the flexibility to re-sign either or pivot into a different solution at center. The first-round pick is some small recompense for moving on from a player as talented as Ingram.
The Hawks step into the deal adding a player in Bruce Brown who can complement Trae Young, while simultaneously opening up their own logjam at center to give Onyeka Okongwu the starting job.
What about the Raptors - do they make this trade?
Grade the Trade for the Raptors
The Toronto Raptors have been linked to Brandon Ingram this summer, but almost always in the context of trading Jakob Poeltl to the Pelicans in exchange. That puts the Raptors in something of a bind, trading their defensive backbone for another offensive star. It never made much sense from a team-building standpoint.
This deal doesn't give up a single starter, however. Bruce Brown is a player the Raptors want to move on from anyway, and Chris Boucher doesn't figure to have much of a role this season. For the price of a low-upside first and a second they add an All-Star to the mix to start at small forward, sliding RJ Barrett back to his more natural shooting guard position.
One of the ways the Raptors can be dangerous this season is that they are starting three players who can all dribble, pass and shoot. What if that number increases to four? All of the debate about whether Ingram is worth a maximum contract or how he fits with Zion Williamson tends to obscure that Ingram is a really good player. He is a gifted scorer, a good shooter, an underrated playmaker and a solid defender. He's not a true elite superstar, but that's why he might be available to the Raptors.
The ideal "fit" for the Raptors is to have an elite shooter and an elite defender in the final starting slot, but those players are extremely hard to find. Ingram represents a play at an even higher ceiling, hoping that he fills his role with the level of talent the Raptors can't add in any other way.
The value here is tremendous, and the fit isn't prohibitive. The biggest obstacle is the contract; the Raptors can't afford to pay Ingram a maximum deal or they will skyrocket above the second tax apron. Can they sign him to a deal in the $35 million range instead of the $45-50 range? That may be the starting point to get something done.
In the worst case, the Raptors trade for Ingram, get a young two-way forward for a year, and he walks away to sign elsewhere in free agency. That's not ideal, but it's also not extremely likely; there is a paucity of cap space next summer, so Ingram won't have much of a market. In that worst case, however, the Raptors only gave up a mediocre first and expiring money - that's a gamble with a low downside.
This is sneakily a really good trade, and well worth the swing from the Toronto Raptors' front office. They once made a similar trade for an undervalued forward and it won them a championship; Ingram is no Kawhi Leonard, but this is another deal worth making.
Grade: A-