The Toronto Raptors do not have an impeccable draft record.
They have certainly nailed some picks over the year, including finding Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby late in the first round, or making the correct call to draft Scottie Barnes over Jalen Suggs in the 2021 NBA Draft. The Raptors, and this front office led by Masai Ujiri in particular, have hit on a lot of picks.
That doesn't mean it's a perfect one, however. In 2020 they took Malachi Flynn one pick before Desmond Bane; back in 2014 they took a misplaced swing at Bruno Caboclo. Last year it made a lot of sense for them to take Gradey Dick with the No. 13 pick, but he has a lot of work to do to keep up with players drafted later such as Brandin Podziemski, Cam Whitmore and Jaime Jaquez Jr.
The Raptors were busy in the 2024 NBA Draft
This year that draft record is relevant because the Raptors made a whopping four picks in the 2024 NBA Draft, and all four are on the roster heading into the season. Ulrich Chomche was a flier with the penultimate pick of the draft and will spend the season with the 905 in the G League.
The other three picks may be called into rotation roles right away, however. Ja'Kobe Walter out of Baylor was the pick at No. 19, a player whose shot and defensive potential made him an excellent selection in the first round. Similarly, the Raptors used the No. 45 pick on Houston point guard Jamal Shead, an elite defender who can compete for the backup point guard role and helps them address their weakness at the point of attack.
It's the Raptors' selection with the No. 31 pick that looked instantly questionable the moment they made it, and after just a few weeks appears to be bordering on the edge of disaster.
The mistake the Raptors made
Having the No. 31 pick in the draft is often thought to be more valuable than one of the final few picks of the first round; teams get a much less expensive swing at a player, and if they don't hit they can move on more quickly. In this year's draft the pick became even more valuable, because the Raptors had an entire day to consider their options and field trade offers as the draft went to a two-night affair.
As the first round of the draft concluded it looked like the Raptors had struck gold. A number of players expected to go in the first round were still on the board, including players such as Tyler Kolek and Johnny Furphy commonly mocked as high as the teens.
The prize jewel on the board, however, and the most shocking player to fall in the draft was Duke big man Kyle Filipowski. He was being mocked into the Top 10 as late as this spring, and until a few weeks before the draft seemed like a lottery lock. Leading into the draft the possibility of a small slide became reported, and it seemed that the Raptors would now get a chance to consider drafting him with the 19th pick.
That small slide turned into a large one, and impossibly, he was still available when the Raptors came on the clock with the No. 31 pick. It should have been a coup for the Raptors: it certainly would have been if Raptors Rapture was running their draft. We ranked Filipowski 14th on our Final Toronto Raptors Big Board, one spot behind Walter and by far the best player on the board when Toronto got to pick at 31.
Filipowski was such an obvious pick because of how well he fit what the Raptors needed, both in the short-term and long-term. He could slot in immediately as the Raptors' backup center, and his shooting and size made him an ideal pairing with Scottie Barnes and potentially as a more versatile replacement for Jakob Poeltl.
The Raptors did not take the obvious pick in Kyle Filipowski, nor did they leverage interest in the pick to make a trade and add other assets. Instead, they reached down our draft board and selected San Francisco forward Jonathan Mogbo.
Jonathan Mogbo was a questionable pick
This wasn't a case of Anthony Bennett going first overall, but it was a reach for our board and most public boards. Jonathan Mogbo was usually mocked in the late 30s or throughout the 40s by most draft experts, and he was certainly ranked well behind prospects such as Filipowski, Kolek or Furphy, all of whom met a need for the Raptors.
It's hard to argue that Mogbo did, even if the Raptors thought more highly of him than most teams and draft analysts. He is an undersized big in the mold of P.J. Tucker or Draymond Green in that he doesn't have the skill to play anywhere but center but is undersized for that position at 6'6". Perhaps his 7'2" wingspan and strength will allow him to play as a smallball 5, but he certainly isn't going to be an obvious fit at the 5.
Kevin O'Connor of The Ringer summed it up well, saying of Mogbo that he "Possesses the size of a forward, the handle of a guard, and the shooting of a throwback center." Mogbo's strengths are as a ball-handler, playmaker and rebounder.
To unlock that skillset he would need to play alongside a big who can both space the court and protect the rim. That's the exact problem that the Raptors are already dealing with, because in many ways Jonathan Mogbo is just a lower-level version of Scottie Barnes himself.
That means in both strengths and weaknesses - Mogbo is a truly terrible shooter with poor touch and has a lot of work to do to even reach passable in that area - Mogbo duplicates the Raptors' best player, so even if he adds the necessary skill to earn a spot on an NBA court, he will be relegated on this team to playing only when Barnes does not.
Perhaps there is a sliver of a path to a different future, to Mogbo developing as a shooter and thriving as a smallball 5 alongside Barnes, but it's a small path. And what is so painful about a Raptors team trying to convince themselves of that path as being worth walking is that the true reason the pick was made doesn't seem to be his skillset or that sliver of upside.
Jonathan Mogbo was Scottie Barnes' childhood friend and the two have stayed close ever since; Barnes was present at Mogbo's draft watch party to celebrate with him when he was drafted. Did he know Mogbo was likely to be drafted by Toronto? Was that something worked out ahead of time as a part of Barnes signing his extension?
Those questions are largely unable to be answered, but it's hard to look at the situation and not think that connection played into it. Sometimes those kinds of connections work; the New York Knicks are thriving by scooping up former Villanova teammates around Jalen Brunson, and the Sacramento Kings re-signed Malik Monk at a discount to play alongside college backcourt partner De'Aaron Fox.
Most often, however, those familial connections cause a team to make a decision they would not otherwise have made. The history of these types of reaches are much more often mistakes justified by making a star happy.
All of this was known at the time of the draft, even if it's become more clear with a few weeks to process. What has happened since is that Kyle Filipowski, the player the Raptors passed on, has been rubbing the front office's nose in their mistake.
Kyle Filipowski has been great
The Toronto Raptors played the Utah Jazz in Las Vegas Summer League on Wednesday night, and Filipowski absolutely broke the Toronto defense. His ability to play out on the perimeter, both with the ball and without, opened up the court for the rest of the Jazz to get to the rim at will.
It was a picture of what the Raptors could have had with Filipowski alongside Scottie Barnes. By pulling the Raptors' centers out of the paint, Utah's other forward Taylor Hendricks and Cody Williams had plenty of space to work. Between them they shot 10-of-11 from 2-point range.
Filipowski was far from merely a magnet, however, as he roasted the Raptors to the tune of 20 points, nailing multiple jumpers (2-for-3 from deep, plus a couple of smooth midrangers) and even showing off his strength and handle inside, showing off post moves and even driving out of isolation from the perimeter and right to the rim.
He did it all, and added seven rebounds, three steals and a block to display a well-rounded game and a solid defensive impact. The Raptors had no answers for him, and it had to be painful knowing they could have had that player wearing a Raptors jersey.
Jonathan Mogbo didn't play in the game due to an injury, but he did very little in the two games he did play to make it seem like he was ready for primetime. Filipowski has been the leading star, and the Raptors have been forced to watch.
The future is not set in stone; Filipowski could struggle, and Mogbo could take a major step forward. But right now it looks like the mistake the Raptors made on draft night is already turning into a fullblown disaster, and it will only hurt the more that Filipowski continues to shine.