Toronto Raptors: Who Should be Starting?

While the Toronto Raptors have two well-defined stars in DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry, head coach Dwane Casey has always promoted a team-first brand of basketball. For this reason, the team’s starting lineup is not cemented. Casey often looks at different combinations of players in an attempt to find the right fit. Using Basketball Reference’s Lineups tool, let’s decide what rotation has been the strongest for the Raptors so far this season, and which players should be starters the rest of the way.

The Raptors’ most used five-man lineup this season has been Jonas Valanciunas, Amir Johnson, Terrence Ross, DeRozan and Lowry, logging well more than twice as many minutes as the next most used permutation. Looking at statistical measures per 100 possessions, this unit has been fairly successful both offensively and defensively. The unit scores 5.2 more points and executes 3.4 more free throws than their opponents, while jacking up 3.3 less 3-pointers. Interestingly, this unit does not share the ball particularly well, despite Lowry’s presence. They average 4.5 less assists than their opponents.

The unit earns 2.6 more rebounds per 100 possessions and 1.2 more blocks. These numbers show that when these players are out together, the team tends to drive to the basket, settling far less for contested 3-pointers. Lowry and DeRozan are both elite finishers around the rim, and Ross is known to extend for a massive slam-dunk every once and a while. Considering the Raps have been considered a team that shoots too many threes and struggles to rebound, this unit’s numbers are surprising. Valanciunas and Johnson do a nice job earning second chances and protecting the hoop.

The big problem in this group has been Ross, who has had a rough season so far, slightly regressing from his sophomore campaign. His shot has been inconsistent and he has looked tentative offensively and defensively. Casey has been tinkering with other players in Ross’ traditional starting spot. Two players tend to get the most chatter when discussing who should be starting for the Raps: Greivis Vasquez and James Johnson.

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First, Vasquez. Like Ross, Vasquez hasn’t had his strongest season. He is still a smooth playmaker, a capable 3-point marksmen, and a passable defender, but those skills just haven’t translated to his role in the starting unit. When Vasquez is on the floor with JV, (Amir) Johnson, DeRozan and Lowry, the team tends to struggle. Here’s an eye-popping stat: this unit scores 12.6 less points than their oppositions per 100 possessions. Further, the unit struggles with almost every offensive metric except for free throw shooting, in which they shoot 0.6% better than their opponents.

Defensively, things are a little better. The unit earns 1.6 more defensive rebounds and 0.4 more blocks. Vasquez adds some height, which helps with defence around the hoop. Unfortunately, some stats are too glaringly painful to overlook. This unit turns the ball over 6.3 more times than their opponents per 100 possessions. Considering the unit includes three players who would traditionally be playing guard, that shouldn’t be happening. So, the team’s best starting lineup does not include Vasquez. How about (James) Johnson?

With Johnson on the court, the Raptors do quite well. This unit outscores its opponents by 10.4 points, shooting 8% better from the field. That’s huge. There are two big reasons for why the first goal difference is so large. First, Johnson does not shoot a ton of 3-pointers. Instead, he is a graceful finisher around the rim. Second, Johnson is one of the team’s best defenders, which can be dabilitating to a foe’s offence. This unit has also outshot their opponents by a whopping 20% from the charity stripe. I don’t really have an explanation for that, aside from simply noting that Johnson has touch. This unit also exemplifies strong ball-security, coughing up the rock 2.4 less times per 100 possessions than their opponents.

There are some drawbacks. The unit records 0.9 less rebounds per game and 1.2 less blocks. those are important stats, considering how the Raptors have struggled defensively at times this season. They are forgivable though, when Johnson’s overall defensive acumen is considered. With the Roster the Raptors have, JJ is the best fit as a starting small forward.

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