The Raptors need All-Star Kyle Lowry back
If you suspected Raptors point guard Kyle Lowry has been struggling lately with his shot, here’s some sad news – you’re right.
After a disappointing loss against the Indiana Pacers to begin the playoffs, Toronto Raptors all-stars Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozen remained confident that they can win the series. Both stars played poorly, and perhaps an injury to Lowry helps explain the offense’s struggles.
While Lowry insists no injury limits him, he shot well below his regular season average in game 1 and shot poorly in the final stretch of the regular season, as well.
After suffering an elbow injury on his shooting arm against the Orlando Magic, Lowry sat the March 23 game against Boston, then played the next 3 games. The rest must not have solved the injury, as doctors drained his elbow on March 28. Lowry claimed that the procedure would not keep him off the court.
Lowry continued to play, but his effectiveness has diminished, especially his shooting. Since sitting on March 23, Lowry has struggled to score at the quality and quantity levels that made him a starter on the East All-Star team. After averaging 21.2 points per game on 42.7% field goal shooting in the regular season, he only scored over 20 in two contests — against Memphis and Charlotte. In both contests, he shot near his field goal percentage average: 41.2% against the Grizzlies and 50% against the Hornets.
Consider this table below that compares Lowry’s scoring stats since March 23 against his regular season average. I gathered this data from NBA.com/stats.
| Overall | GP | FGM | FGA | FG% | 3PM | 3PA | 3P% | FTM | FTA | FT% | PTS |
| 2015-16 | 77 | 6.6 | 15.6 | 42.7 | 2.8 | 7.1 | 38.8 | 5.2 | 6.4 | 81.1 | 21.2 |
| Last 9 Games | 9 | 5 | 15.7 | 31.9 | 2.6 | 7.7 | 33.3 | 3.2 | 5.1 | 63 | 15.8 |
As the stats suggest, Lowry’s attempts per game remained at normal levels, but he converted shots at a much lower rate. He’s even shooting free throws at a lower rate.
Using shot tracking data from NBA.com, we can see that Lowry’s favorite shots have abandoned him. Kyle shot pull up jumpers most frequently in the regular season. Shooting 10 feet from the basket ranked as his second-most used range. He shot an effective field goal percentage, which measures all field goal attempts and provides an adjustment for 3 point shots, of 43.2% on pull-up shots and 50.5% on less than 10 feet shots throughout the regular season. After posting those respectable numbers, Lowry shot 9% worse on pull-ups and 24% worse from 10 feet or less since March 23.
Injured or not, Lowry’s shooting has declined precipitously in the past month – a trend that has continued into the playoffs. If the struggles are the result of injury, perhaps the Raptors should consider using Cory Joseph more frequently, who led the team in scoring in game 1 against Indiana and has been effective off the bench this season. If Lowry’s shooting stumbles have nothing to do with injury, perhaps he can shoot his way out of the slump. Either way, Toronto needs All-Star Kyle Lowry back.