Raptors are forecast to slip back next season

The trade press is down on the Raptors’ chances this upcoming season, but they are wrong, and here’s why.

Here’s a couple of posts from respected sites, one being Basketball Insiders, the other FanSided’s own Hoops Habit. And what do they have in common, you ask? To no one’s surprise, they predict the Toronto Raptors 2016-17 season will be less successful than was 15-16.

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Let’s get this cliche out of the way immediately – everyone is entitled to their opinion, particularly when speculating about a sports team’s future. Injuries, bad chemistry or worse luck…anything can happen.

But I want to go on record as saying these assessments are incorrect. While I understand why the press has decided the Boston Celtics are the shiny new toy of the Atlantic Division, I believe the Raptors can fend them off, win the Division and enjoy a high playoff seed.

People in the press love change. There’s something new to write about, as formerly uninteresting teams add some quality players and are proclaimed as championship contenders.

By contrast, continuity doesn’t have the same pizzazz. The Raptors started Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, DeMarre Carroll, Jonas Valanciunas and Luis Scola in Game One last season, and only Scola won’t occupy the same spot when the new season tips off. Three of the four returnees are playing in the Olympics, so someone other than us biased Raptors fans thinks our guys are OK.

We don’t know who’s going to start at Power Forward in late October, but I’ll wager many loonies that whoever he is will be better than Scola.

If you add up all the wins by every team in 2015-16, including playoffs, the Finalists lead the way. Cleveland won 73 (57 season +16 playoff) and Golden State, despite their shocking collapse, led with 88 (73 + 15 – one short!). Who’s in third place? The San Antonio Spurs, with 73 (67 + 6). The Raptors, with 66 (56 + 10), are tied for fourth with the OKC Thunder (55 + 11). Of these five, the Spurs will be happy if they can maintain last year’s record, while the Thunder, with the loss of Kevin Durant, have taken a huge step back.

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Boston finished eight games behind Toronto in the regular season, and could only muster a pair of wins before bowing to the Atlanta Hawks in the playoffs’ first round. Al Horford is a big “get” for them, but is he that much of a difference-maker? I love their #3 pick, Jaylen Brown, and wish he were a Raptor, but he’s not. He’s a rookie swingman with a lot to learn.

Let’s also remember the Raptors played poorly in the playoffs. Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan were mired in dreadful shooting slumps, yet the team managed to scrape together Game 7 wins in their first two series. They even threw a scare into the Cavaliers by beating them twice in Toronto before the bubble burst.

The writers predicting regression both make much of the loss of Bismack Biyombo. Yes, it hurts that he’s moved on after a stellar playoff effort, but you can’t keep everyone. The reason Biyombo got so much playing time was the loss of Valanciunas to injury. A healthy JV can make a big difference in crunch time.

The Raptors might be better to start the season than last year’s team was. If Jared Sullinger can maintain his career averages, we’re immediately better on the boards. We now know Norman Powell can play in the NBA, as can Delon Wright when healthy.

Depth, familiarity, experience – I’ll take my chances with our group.

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