Raptors 2016-17 forecast – a cloudy crystal ball
By Brian Boake
Tomorrow night the ball goes up for real. How will the Raptors fare this season? I can’t delay my prediction any longer.
Every season I make a forecast in advance of the Toronto Raptors first game. It’s time once again, yet I’m as unready as I’ve ever felt. The Raptors roster has gaps caused by injuries and no clear path to resolution.
Let’s deal with the won – lost record first. The Raptors season ends on April 12 in Cleveland, and I predict the team will conclude the regular season with 51 wins and 31 defeats.
That’s a decrease of five games from last year, which I’ll explain shortly.
FRONTCOURT
Jonas Valanciunas appears fit and ready to go. Now in his fifth season in Toronto, JV ranks somewhere in the mid-tier of NBA centres. His reputation was not enhanced by an Olympics performance which might most kindly be described as mediocre. Yet he’s an essential part of the Raptors long-term plans.
Every year JV has gotten a little better, but the team needs more. The defensive backstop called Bismack Biyombo has signed a monster contract in Orlando, and Lucas Nogueira is hurt. So is Jared Sullinger, whom some were calling JV’s backup. (I hate that idea; if you’re bothered by JV’s lack of mobility in help-defense situations, do you really think Sullinger, a man-mountain, is going to be better?)
In theory, we’re left with green-as-a-putting-surface Jakob Poeltl as the backup. In practice, I suspect we’ll see Patrick Patterson slide over to the 5 in small-ball lineups.
Since we’re bleeding into discussion of the power forward spot, let’s keep going. Patterson has once again failed to grasp the opportunity, which leaves another rookie, Pascal Siakam, as the starter. Whether Siakam plays as few minutes as the overmatched Luis Scola is something to pay attention to. I suspect he’ll play more, as his rebounding and defensive skills should be sufficient to neutralize his cover.
Bruno Caboclo, sadly, is proving that Fran Fraschilla’s famous “two years away from being two years away” assessment was bang on. While his contract was extended, I doubt we’ll see much of him, unless you’re interested in a hike to Mississauga to watch the 905ers.
Will JV improve by 10% at both ends of the floor? Can Siakam hold his own against NBA power forwards, or will the erratic Patterson eat the bulk of the minutes? Whatever the answer, the Raptors are not starting the season healthy or settled up front, and that’s a big concern.
BACKCOURT
The Raptors will go as far as their backcourt allows. The All-Star duo of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan should be headed for another quality season. Cory Joseph is competent, and frequently more than that, off the bench.
Fred VanVleet has earned a jersey, as the best option on hand until Delon Wright returns from his shoulder troubles.
Fred won’t have many minutes available, unless the Raptors build up big leads and can afford to cruise. The guy who will compete for major playing time is Norman Powell. He’s penciled in as a backup shooting guard but may poach time from Terrence Ross. DeMarre Carroll also figures more prominently this season, as he is (suppposedly) healthy. Carroll can get up in the grill of almost every small forward in the league, and will chip in with the occasional 3-ball or slash to the bucket.
Ross will need to establish his floor-spacing credentials early, or he may find himself out of the rotation. His defense must be more attentive than it’s been, and we’d all be happier with more boards from him. Lord knows he’s got the hops.
CONCLUSIONS
The Raptors are built on defence and depth. They are the anti-Warriors, as our best players are never in consideration for individual awards.
They sneaked up on the entire league last year, and blew away even the most optimistic forecast. The Raptors won’t be a surprise to any opponent this year, several of whom are better than they were.
If they were healthy…if Sullinger had seized the open 4-spot at camp…I might have called them to replicate last year’s number. But even if they don’t, a 51-win season can hardly be considered a failure. Should the Raptors grab the second or third seed, and reach the playoffs with all hands on deck, I like our chances against anyone.