Raptors’ Jakob Poeltl a bust, says respected analyst

In the runup to NBA Draft night, there’s a lot of analysis available. Here’s my take on one interesting viewpoint.

Joel Brigham of Basketball Insiders has published a thought-provoking examination of why NBA teams so often make egregious mistakes on Draft Night.

He lists 7 reasons leading to errors of judgement, of which #3 (according to him) is drafting for size. In his list of busts selected for height alone, he names Jakob Poeltl of the Toronto Raptors. Wait…what?

There’s so much wrong here. To begin with, calling somebody a bust after his rookie season is woefully misguided. Our guy is 21 years young, and nowhere close to a finished product. Poeltl’s body needs many hours in the weight room, his shot needs work, yada yada. We know all that. What happened to patience? I don’t think Poeltl’s ceiling is ultra-high, but he’s certainly not been around long enough to earn a “bust” label.

Brigham also mentions the Hornets’ Frank Kaminsky in his “gigantic flop” list. If Charlotte wants to dump Kaminsky, I’d like to think Masai Ujiri would be first to call. Bismack Biyombo is on the list – come again? Sure, Brigham mentions some legitimately bad selections. Anybody remember Patrick O’Bryant during his mercifully brief cup-of-coffee with the Raptors? Here’s a point Brigham should have added: Stay away from players who can’t run properly. There’s lots of discussion in the hoops press about prospects with broken shots. That’s unquestionably a major drawback, but so is the inability to move your feet. I needed about 2 minutes of watching O’Bryant run to know he wasn’t going to make it.

Brigham mentions how teams create problems for themselves by drafting players with character issues. I concur (who needs the headaches?), but I suggest the matter is more subtle than eschewing prospects who had been in trouble with the law or their school. There’s also personality, or lack thereof. The uncoachable Andrea Bargnani springs to mind.

The final, and biggest, cowpie Brigham steps in is the hoary “mistake” of drafting for need rather than best player. I’m so tired of beating up on this false dichotomy. No one who trots out the tired bromide “just pick the best player and everything will sort itself out” seems to consider the possibility that often there’s no consensus as to who the best player is. And even if there is consensus, does make sense for Portland or Washington to pick a guard when they already have All-Stars in their back court? Philadelphia has blindly followed “best player available” and ended up with a boatload of big men, and D-League guards.

using Darko Milicic as an example of the error of picking for need is completely unconvincing. Darko was a bad pick, period. He was selected in the relatively Darko (sorry) Ages of scouting, back in 2003. With today’s tools at his fingertips, I’m confident Detroit’s Joe Dumars would have stayed away from Milicic.

Drafting well is extremely difficult. I think Brigham’s list of Don’ts is worthy of consideration, otherwise I wouldn’t have brought it to your attention. But I have faith Jakob will prove Brigham wrong.