Can the Toronto Raptors Win a Playoff Series?

Last night, the Toronto Raptors clinched a playoff spot despite losing to the Chicago Bulls. They have won just four of their last 10 games, but they remain 42-30 on the season, good for fourth-place in the putrid Eastern Conference. The team was able to clinch 10-games early based on their success in the first half of the season. At points this year, the Raps have been in the conversation for best team in the league. But, considering their recent play, do the Raptors even have a hope at making it past the first round?

To preface this argument, we have to reflect on the team’s hot start. They came out of the gates swinging, taking the entire league by storm. Despite the Raptors’ success last season, no one really took them seriously. People assumed this team could win based on chemistry only, and that they didn’t really offer top-notch talent. Then, with the ascension of Lou Williams and James Johnson, the conversation started to turn.

The two new plays have been brilliant at moments this season, filling gaps that were visible during last year’s first round loss to the Brooklyn Nets. In Williams, the Raptors have an offensive firecracker with the ability to takeover a game almost instantly off the bench. In Johnson, the team have a stopper with enough grace and strength to finish confidently around the rim.

Let’s not forget about Lowry’s development into one of the NBA’s best point guards. He has not only been an effective scorer, passer and defender, but he has also shown the on-court leadership of a veteran star. In addition, DeMar DeRozan has been good, though not quite as good as he was last year. So, what’s been going wrong with this talented roster?

Plainly, there has been a lack of effort defensively and the offence has been one-dimensional. On defence, the Raptors have a few talented contributors, but it tends to be that head coach Dwane Casey favours the defensive duds when it comes to minute allocation. Players like Williams and Greivis Vasquez spend a lot of time on the floor, but are simply incapable of providing good defence. That, or they are uninterested. This has been a problem all season, but was not as obvious when the offence was efficient.

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Offensively, the Raptors have been predictable and inconsistent. For example, last night against the Bulls, everything looked great when DeRozan was knocking down his typical mid-range jumpers, but when that shot started to elude him, as it has in the last few months, he kept going for it. It probably isn’t his fault. The rightful blame likely lies with Casey, who has not been able to come up with a way to get his team back into the habit of winning. Last night, Vasquez hit six 3-pointers, which helped the Raptors establish a lead. But, when he started missing, the ball kept ending up in his hands.

The Raptors have been uncreative, leaning on one thing, even when that thing stops working. It’s not like they don’t have options, those options just aren’t being properly used. This problem leads us back to the earlier question: can the Raptors win a first round playoff series this year? If they play like they are right now, it’s not likely.

While the Raptors will be almost unquestionably better on-paper than their opponent, it doesn’t take much right now to figure out how to pick them apart. Any decent coach should be able to dissect the one-dimensional Raptors, and find ways to help his team succeed. So, with only 10-games left in the season, Casey and his team will really need to find some solutions. If not, it could be another early exit for the Raps.

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