The Toronto Raptors currently sit a game back of Chicago for the 3rd seed. Toronto’s last seven opponents are Brooklyn, Boston and Charlotte twice, Orlando, and Miami. Meanwhile the Bulls have to face both Cleveland and Atlanta in their final stretch of games.
It isn’t hard to imagine Toronto winning all these games and moving into the 3rd seed, which would see them facing the Milwaukee Bucks in the first round.
The Bucks have been one of the NBA’s feel-good teams this season. They have played suffocating defense all year, resulting in allowing the 8th fewest points per game, the 5th lowest field goal percentage, and forcing opponents to commit the most turnovers in the league. They are also tied for second in points allowed per 100 possessions.
While they may lack talent on the offensive end—ranking 23rd in points per game and points per 100 possessions—Jason Kidd has done a masterful job of getting the best out of his players. A task not to be ignored, considering nobody on Milwaukee averages more than 15 points a game (Michael Carter-Williams and Khris Middleton lead the team with 13.3 and 13.1 points respectively).
Apr 1, 2015; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Bucks guard Michael Carter-Williams (5) looks to shoot against Chicago Bulls guard Aaron Brooks (0) during the second quarter at BMO Harris Bradley Center. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
The Bucks are 7th in the league in assists per game, and are 6th in percentage of assisted made field goals. They lead the league in percentage of points off of turnovers, are 6th in percentage of fast break points and are a commendable 12th in percentage of points in the paint.
In short, the Bucks get easy buckets.
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To the chagrin of Raptors fans, Toronto does not. They are 4th in the league in percentage of unassisted made field goals, 17th in percentage of points in the paint—despite having arguably better low-post players—they are 18th in percentage of fast break points and 17th in percentage of points off turnovers.
Despite everything, this really would be Toronto’s series to lose.
Toronto has already beaten Milwaukee twice this year, including the 124-82 rout early in the year.
Milwaukee is a young team with inexperienced players, many of whom will be getting their first taste of the playoffs.
The pace of the game is notoriously slower in the postseason, which doesn’t fare well for Milwaukee.
There won’t be as many fast break opportunities as Milwaukee is accustomed to. Additionally, the Raptors commit the third fewest turnovers a game in the NBA, so buckets off turnovers will be hard to come by.
I don’t see Milwaukee’s offense giving Toronto any troubles. Which means as long as Toronto scores at the level they are capable of, they win this series.
In reality, the only way in which Toronto will lose is if they resort to ISO-ball (admittedly, this is a genuine concern), which will give Milwaukee opportunities to get out onto the break. As long as Toronto doesn’t beat themselves, they should be able to get past Milwaukee should they matchup.
That doesn’t mean that the series will be easy. Milwaukee is a disciplined defensive squad who held Toronto to 75 points in their last meeting. It will likely be a grind-it-out type of series and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bucks manage to push the series to seven.
All stats are courtesy of NBA.com