Playoff Problems: The Regression of Kyle Lowry

This is part two of a six part series. We at Raptors Rapture will dissect the Raptors’ playoff woes to understand how a team that earned 49 wins got blown out so easily in the first round.

One of the biggest storylines during the Toronto Raptors’ 4-0 first round playoff trouncing against the Washington Wizards was the disappearance of Kyle Lowry. Lowry, who was a stud for most of the regular season, completely fell apart under the bright lights of the NBA playoffs. It’s still not completely clear whether it was the increased pressure or whether it was his nagging injuries that brought him down, but something happened to the nine-year veteran when his team needed him most.

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To understand Lowry’s importance for the Raptors, we can’t simply look at regular statistics. They help, but his contributions go so far beyond points per game or shooting percentage. Kyle Lowry is a high energy, two-way player who has made a career out of being the hardest working guy on the floor. He grinds, pushes and sprints his way around the court, looking to be useful in anyway he can be. During the playoffs, that value faded away.

Lowry looked tired and downtrodden. When his level of play wasn’t meeting his own expectations (which was practically all of the time), he got way too frustrated. He vocalized his annoyance by yelling at the refs, something that a leader should only do sparingly. He frequently ran into foul trouble, fouling out of game one and missing time in the team’s other contests. He just couldn’t find the extra gear that he was able to access during the regular season. All of the confidence he earned by becoming an All-Star this year was lost, as he was forced to watch the likes of Paul Pierce wipe the floor with his team.

Lowry t'd up for throwing a hard chest pass to the ref after the timeout.
— (((Eric Koreen))) (@ekoreen) April 26, 2015

Back to regular stats- Lowry averaged 17.8 points, 6.8 assists and 4.7 rebounds per game throughout the season. He shot 41% from the field and 34% from long distance. He was the team’s leader in assists and their second highest scorer after DeMar DeRozan. During the playoffs, he averaged an ugly 12.3 points, 4.8 assists and 5.5 rebounds per game. He shot 31% from the field and 21% from 3-point range. His very presence on the court for the Raptors was negative, since his defence wasn’t much better than his offence.

Perhaps the most telling statistic is his PER value, which measures per-minute production, standardized so that the league average is 15. During the regular season, Lowry earned a 19.3, only to plummet all the way down to 7.9 during the playoffs.

When GM Masai Ujiri locked up Lowry with a fat four-year contract this past summer, he was hoping Lowry would be the guy to lead the Raptors into playoff dominance. There is still time to discover a new “playoff Lowry” mode, but that window has now shrunk to only three years.

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