How much roster turnover is too much for Raptors?

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The Toronto Raptors’ playoff misadventures have provided ample proof that the current roster can’t win an NBA championship. The team has lost its last six playoff games over two post-seasons, which has meant first-round exits and bitterness for its legions of fans. GM Masai Ujiri wants nothing more than to build the Raptors into a team which can follow regular season success with long playoff runs. To that end, we’re all waiting with bated breath to learn what moves he will make. Perhaps more importantly, how many moves are enough?

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Let’s attack this in order of probability, starting with our crazy number of UFAs [Unrestricted Free Agents]. I can’t envision any scenario in which Landry Fields or Chuck Hayes return to the Raptors. While reigning NBA Sixth Man of the Year Louis Williams wants to re-sign, he may be too expensive for Masai’s taste. The same applies to beloved but creaky power forward Amir Johnson, and feisty, erratic Tyler Hansbrough. Greg Stiemsma’s salary is a rounding error, so we’ll assume he or someone like him makes the team at his current price. Conservatively, we’re going to lose 4 players from our current roster after July 1, when the team can renounce its free agents.

Apr 21, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Washington Wizards guard Bradley Beal (3) drives between Toronto Raptors guard Lou Williams (23) and forward Amir Johnson (15) in the fourth quarter in game two of the first round of the NBA Playoffs at Air Canada Centre. Wizards beat raptors 117 – 106. Mandatory Credit: Peter Llewellyn-USA TODAY Sports

How do we backfill? Bruno Caboclo isn’t ready, although I’m on record as saying we’ll see more of him (we could hardly see less). If Lucas Nogueira can hold his own, I’ve no evidence, and little confidence. That means a lot of minutes in the front court are available. DeAndre Daniels may be a dark horse to make the team after his season in Australia. Unless he trades the pick, Masai is going to draft someone on June 25. Rookies typically don’t get much playing time on teams like Toronto which are trying to win now. Regardless, they occupy a roster spot, and need to be worked into the rotation somehow. A rookie, maybe Daniels, Bruno, some D-League big men camp invitees – do any of them fit?

There are new faces due on the bench as well, with Tom Sterner and Bill Bayno having taken the fall for the team’s failures.

Enough. Masai has stressed the need for team chemistry, which has been a strength since the semi-legendary trade of Rudy Gay. But chemistry may be too much to expect on a team like next season’s Raptors, who will need to fill a lot of spots in something of a hurry. Coach Dwane Casey, already feeling the heat, needs to figure out how to integrate a whack of new faces, in uniforms and in suits.

Let’s not press for a splashy trade or free-agent signing; not this summer. How much change is too much? I don’t know, and I don’t want to find out.

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