Advanced stats predict Brandon Ashley for the Toronto Raptors

In preparation for the 2015 NBA Draft, this site has put out a lot of scouting profiles on prospective selections for the Toronto Raptors with the 20th pick. These profiles have been based on a mix of the eye test, a players’ statistical outputs in the NCAA and educated guesses about how certain traits transfer better than others to the NBA. This time, let’s take a look at what the work of professional statisticians tells us about who the Raptors should draft.

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FiveThirtyEight has released a fascinating ranking of the top 50 players in the 2015 draft class. Each player was ranked based on the percentage chance that he will end up a star, a starter, a role player or a bust. Here are writers Neil Paine and Zach Bradshaw’s explanations of the categories:

“Superstar: We’re talking players like Anthony Davis here (about one of these per draft class).

Starter: This bucket includes solid players like Shane Battier and Kyle Lowry (about 10 per class).

Role player: These are the Jarrett Jacks and Tony Allens of the world (25 per class).

Bust: Hello, Michael Beasley! (This bucket consists of everyone not in the first three, including replacement-level players who will never actually appear in the NBA.)”

In a really interesting turn of events, the advanced analytics predicted Brandon Ashley would be the 20th best player drafted this year. Most sources are not expecting Ashley to be picked in the first round or even the start of the second. So, what could most be missing?

Ashley is a 6-9, 230 pound power forward from Arizona who was once a highly touted high school prospect, only to fade to the shadows in college. He averaged 12.2 points and 5.2 rebounds per game this year, shooting 52% from the field. Ashley is an athletic player who will be much better if he can shake his frequent passiveness on the court.

On offence, Ashley thrives as a jump shooter. He has a good stroke and can hit from anywhere within the arc. He uses his speed and agility to get open for pick and pop situations, which is his bread and butter right now. He also has some ability from the low post, but he will need to become a lot stronger before he can do much down there. Ashley’s biggest downside on offence is his lack of ball handling skills. He struggles to create his own shot, especially against help defence, which limits his ability as a jump shooter. Still, there is always room in the association for a consistent catch-and-shoot option.

Defensively, Ashley uses his speed and athleticism to play solid man defence. He can stay with just about anyone and he is tall enough to get blocks from time to time. His big weakness is his lack of strength, but he would be forced to fill out in the NBA anyways. He could grow to be a defensive asset under the right instruction. Unfortunately, Ashley is not much of a rebounder, due to his lack of strength and often his lack of effort. That is a big red flag, but there is still time to learn.

FiveThirtyEight predicted that there is a 1.1% chance he becomes a star, a 25.3% chance he becomes a starter, a 35.6% chance he becomes a role player and a 37.9% chance he becomes a bust. With the 20th pick, gaining a solid role player would be a definite win for the Raptors. Could Ashley be the right guy for GM Masai Ujiri? Let me know what you think in the comments below.

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