Final prediction: Toronto Raptors will select Kelly Oubre

The 2015 NBA Draft is tomorrow (June 25th) and I have written at least five separate posts profiling players GM Masai Ujiri could select with the 20th pick. Now that it is almost time to make a decision, I feel obliged to make a final prediction.

Before I start, remember that this is not a suggestion or an ideal scenario. This is a prediction of what Ujiri will do to address what he sees as the team’s greatest needs. So, without further ado, the Toronto Raptors select…

Kelly Oubre (SF, Kansas).

For most of the last month, Oubre was slotted to be selected with somewhere between the 10th and the 15th pick. In the last few days, most NBA pundits have predicted that he will slide, dipping to somewhere between 20-25. If Ujiri gets the chance, my money is on him taking a risk on a streaky prospect with a ton of upside.

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Early this year, Oubre struggled to find his place with the Jayhawks. He played only 8 minutes per game in his first seven contests, missing the defensive consistency and the offensive production needed to earn more time. Eventually, he figured it out, putting in decent efforts and averaging 21 minutes per game for the season. Still, he wasn’t incredible.

The intrigue around Oubre goes beyond what he did in college. His occasional NCAA woes have been forgotten because of his NBA potential. From a physical perspective, Oubre is a perfect small forward. He stands 6-7, has a wingspan between 7-1 and 7-2 and weighs 203 pounds. Though Oubre is not an incredible athlete, he plays with a fluidity that can be breathtaking to watch.

In his rookie season, Oubre will be able to make a difference primarily on the defensive end. He is a remarkably quick player who can guard point guards, shooting guard, small forwards and power forwards because of his length. He has speedy hands (2.2 steals per 40 minutes) and a surprising knack for rebounds (7.6 defensive rebounds per 40 minutes). All of this is music to Ujiri’s ears, as he looks to quickly improve his team’s defence. Of course, Oubre will need to learn to work harder on the court, but he could possibly be taught.

Offensively, Oubre still has a lot to learn, but a strong foundation is already present. He is a good jump shooter with great touch from anywhere within the arc. He can shoot 3-pointers, but he will need to continue to become more consistent, nailing only 36% of his attempts last year. Still, he has the chance to be able to score fairly consistently right away in the NBA.

Before he can really reach his ceiling he will have to become a better ball handler. He does not have the ability to create his own shot against strong defenders because of a lack of creativity and skill while dribbling. This also hurts his ability to get to the hoop. All of this is workable, but it will not come instantly.

The truth is, the Raptors don’t seem sold on Terrence Ross, even though Ujiri has said he will not trade Ross. At the very least, Oubre offers another option for head coach Dwane Casey. Tune in tomorrow to see who Ujiri selects. If Oubre is still on the board, I bet he will hear his name called as the 20th pick.

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