Expectations for Kyle Lowry in 2015-16 with the Toronto Raptors

Earlier this week, Bank of Montreal announced endorsement deals with Andrew Wiggins, Kelly Olynyk, Tyler Ennis and Kyle Lowry. The quartet were the first players the bank has ever signed a contract with, marking BMO’s intention to become more involved with the fastest growing sport in Canada.

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Considering Kyle Lowry was the lone player signed who is not from the north, it is clear his impact for the Toronto Raptors is not lost on the world beyond the team’s locker room. Despite a disappointing end to the season, Lowry isolated himself as the Raptors’ clear leader last season. Though the roster is fairly deep, whether the team wins or loses has a lot to do with what Lowry is able produce on the court.

Going into the 2015/16 season, what can fans expect from the pugnacious point guard who found his way into the starting lineup of the Eastern Conference All-Star Team last season? Will this be another season told in two halves? Will Lowry figure out his consistency problems and finally emerge as a top five NBA point guard? For now, all we can do is speculate.

Last season, Lowry averaged 17.8 points, 6.8 assists and 4.7 rebounds per game. He shot 41% from the field and 34% from long-range. Overall, it was a good season, but there was a clear drop-off point after the All-Star Game where his output plummeted, never to fully resurface. The reason for this was widely attributed to the extra physical strain he put on his body while carrying the Raptors during DeMar DeRozan’s extended time on the bench with a groin injury.

Lowry was an incredible leader while DeRozan was away, taking key shots and making huge defensive plays. Unfortunately, he ran out of gas, which had a profound impact on the team during their playoff trouncing at the hands of the Washington Wizards.

Lowry’s time leading without DeRozan didn’t just hurt his production, it also seemed to change the way he approached offensive sets. For most of last season, he focused far less on passing and far more on creating his own shot. His assist total dropped by 0.6 assists per game from the year before, which may seem tiny, but is considerable since his field goal percentage and three-point percentage both dropped considerably from the 2013/14 season. Basically, he was inclined to shoot more off the dribble, which led to more misses and less points for his teammates.

His success this season will be predicated on his willingness to move the ball and contribute to a team-first offensive approach. During the fall, the team’s coaches will get a chance to explain their vision for the season to the players. As a leader, I expect Lowry will buy into whatever is presented. If he does, I predict 19 points, 7.5 assist and 4.5 rebounds per game, which would be the best season of his career.

I fully expect to see Lowry in his second All-Star Game this season.

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