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$$$ – How Raptors might fare in NBA’s wealthy new world

By Brian Boake

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The always-readable Zach Lowe from Grantland has published a lengthy post dealing with the NBA’s salary cap. He believes a work stoppage will be avoided, and so skates around the topic to consider the cap number in 2017-2018. Zach posits a figure of $108M, which blows my mind.

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Jun 16, 2015; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers center Tristan Thompson (13) drives to the basket against Golden State Warriors forward Draymond Green (23) during the third quarter of game six of the NBA Finals at Quicken Loans Arena. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

[20-second timeout: I’m not optimistic about avoiding a strike or lockout. Billionaire owners tipping off against millionaire players – the only thing they have in common is a lack of concern about paying for their next meal. Don’t underestimate obtuseness, or creative accounting. Commissioner Adam Silver claims there are teams still losing money. Puh-leese…Adam, ask those unfortunate(?) owners, whoever they are, as the league won’t tell us, why they simply don’t sell the team to recoup their losses. It won’t happen. The last team to change hands was the Los Angeles Clippers, which was purchased by Microsoft cheerleader Steve Ballmer for $2B after Donald Sterling’s foot-in-mouth disease became common knowledge. That was barely a year ago, and I bet Ballmer would turn down $2.5B today.]

We know the salary cap will take a historic jump to $90M from $70M prior to the ’16-’17 season, due to the phenomenal increase in TV money the league has negotiated. However, I didn’t know (and I’m not sure how Zach knows) about another leap the following season. If it’s true, a lot of assumptions I’ve been making about the medium-term plans of GM Masai Ujiri have just become unstuck.

A look at the salaries allocated for ’17-’18 will help. DeMar DeRozan is off the books, as are James Johnson, TRoss, and Bismack Biyombo, while Kyle Lowry has a player option at $12M (opt out!). The team’s biggest commitments are to DeMarre Carroll and Jonas Valanciunas, after which there is a bunch of low-priced talent under control.

Let’s sign Tristan Thompson, who says he wants a “max deal”, which sounds like about $24M per year (that’s an average on a 4-year term – he rejected $80M from the Cavs). Whether he’s worth such a crazy amount or not is beside the point; someone (Knicks? Nets? Lakers?) will pay him. The Raptors could underpay him in ’16-’17 to stay under the cap, then re-sign DeMar with our Bird rights. Now the team is over the cap, but so what? All is clear sailing with more money in ’17-’18. There’s room to pay our two first-rounders, and perhaps find a raise for a youthful overachiever.

So much is unpredictable as the NBA heads inexorably towards “seismic summer”, i.e., next off-season. But I’m encouraged by Zach’s prediction of another cap increase as the Raptors become a desirable location for free agents. We can grab a prize, while retaining our core.

Next: Is Jamal Murray another Canadian destined for Raptors?

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