The standings are insanely tight in the Eastern Conference, and every coach is looking for an edge. Can better offensive rebounding provide the Raptors with a precious extra bucket or two each game?
The always enlightening Zack Lowe offers his thoughts about a significant NBA trend, namely, de-emphasizing the importance of offensive rebounding. His lengthy dissertation gathers the opinions of a number of NBA coaches, many of whom don’t want their players (even their big men) crashing the glass. Why? Everyone is frightened about giving up transition baskets.
There’s a lot to consider on this matter, but we’re going to limit our mulling to how the trend affects the Toronto Raptors. Grabbing offensive rebounds will never be as important as it used to be, simply because the advent of 3-point shooting-oriented teams has lowered the “science” of rebounding. As Lowe points out, longer shots mean longer rebounds, so someone like Dennis Rodman can’t get rich as a weak-side specialist. During the era of low-post dominance (shorter shots, ergo shorter rebounds), a Rodman or, before him, a Wes Unseld, could put up big O-board numbers by positioning tight to the bucket and boxing out. Today someone like Tristan Thompson has to get his coach’s permission to prowl the glass after a teammate’s shot goes up. Greg Popovich, who knows a little about winning basketball, doesn’t want his players rebounding at all…just retreating.
The Raptors don’t have a “natural” offensive rebounder. Bismack Biyombo can dominate on occasion, but he’s so bad at finishing that his talent is largely wasted. Our power forwards, on whom much of the O-boarding responsibility rests, don’t do it much. Luis Scola is an opportunist, but can’t pound anymore among the trees. Patrick Patterson is usually too far away from the hoop; another unexpected outcome of the stretch-4 phenomenon. Only invisible man Anthony Bennett might be a useful player to unleash, but we’re not likely to find out.
A team which has a goodly number of quality shooters has little need of O-boards, as there aren’t enough to worry about. The Raptors have fired away at an overall 43.8% rate this season, which is good enough (or bad enough) to rank 20th. One can hardly be surprised to find the San Antonio Spurs and Golden State Warriors at the top of the table (49.1% and 48.6% respectively); those two have combined for a 66-8 record this season. They flip the 1 & 2 spots for 3-point shooting, at 42.6% and 38.4%. For them, a fire and fall back offense makes perfect sense.
The Raptors don’t have that luxury. They are tied for 15th in O-boards per game with 10.5. The top two are Detroit and OKC, which are winning teams, followed by Denver and Portland, which aren’t. The co-relation between high offensive rebounding numbers and a likely playoff berth seems non-existent (the 10-24 Brooklyn Nets are 8th).
For Toronto, a decent squad which has aspirations to be great, the conclusion seems clear enough. To take the next step, management must either improve the outside shooting, particularly from distance, or commit to better rebounding. Our starting shooting guard, DeMar DeRozan, is shooting less than 30% this year for his 3-point attempts, and for his career. That’s not likely to improve. Our small forward is currently James Johnson, whom I never want to see taking a long shot. Our rotation guys, Patrick Patterson and Terrence Ross, have both endured lengthy shooting slumps. The chances of improving our long-ball shooting are virtually nil.
That leaves better rebounding. We need a trade for somebody like Zach Randolph, who ranks third among power forwards in O-boards per game with 2.9, [Editor’s Note: for all you Kenneth Faried lovers; your man is first with 3.7] or try someone else at the spot. As mentioned, I don’t think the roster is going to provide the answer.
Finally, there’s another option – not doing anything at all.
What do you think, Rapture Nation? Is offensive rebounding an issue, or something not worth bothering with?