Analytics gone wild – how do we assess Raptors usage rate?
By Brian Boake
Why doesn’t Raptors Rapture rely on statistics to the same degree other websites do? Good question, & here’s a partial answer.
Even though I knew I was falling victim to clickbait, I couldn’t resist having a read of Neil Paine’s post in the excellent fivethirtyeight site. The title How Did Basketball End Up With Four Versions (And Counting) Of One Stat? was catnip, and the post didn’t disappoint.
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The stat Paine refers to is “usage rate” [UR], which he points out is calculated differently depending on who you read. I wouldn’t quarrel with the importance of usage rate, which is intended to provide a snapshot of who’s a willing passer and who’s a ball hog. Not really, that’s my spin – here’s a definition.
Who leads the NBA in UR among small forwards? LeBron James and Kobe Bryant at 32.2 and 29.8 respectively. Terrence Ross sits 37th with 15.2, while DeMarre Carroll, the starter (when he’s healthy, of course) sits 25th at 17.3. The Raptors typically use both as catch and shoot-ers, as opposed to the dribble-heavy fashion in which King James and Kobe operate.
The heavy dependency our team places on its starting backcourt is reflected in their usage rates. DeMar DeRozan is third at 27.5 (James Harden leads, with Dwyane Wade next) among shooting guards. Kyle Lowry sits 12th at 26.5, although that’s not a true picture of his importance to the Raptors. Lowry often functions as the shooting guard when Cory Joseph is on the floor, so CoJo handles the ball on every possession, while Lowry may not touch it.
It’s results like that, which you wouldn’t know if you weren’t watching the games, that keep me away from quoting usage stats a lot. I simply don’t know how meaningful they are. The Lakers’ Brandon Bass is tied with Johnny O’Bryant and Jonas Jerebko with a UR of 12.9. So they are all pretty similar, right? If so, why is Bass’ PER of 18.63 greater than the total PER of the other two? I’ll take PER as an individual stat of import over UR every day of the week.
UR is a function of how a team’s coach likes to use his players. Getting back to TRoss: he’s always going to have a low usage rating as long as Dwane Casey uses him as a safety valve. “Terrence, go stand in the corner. If somebody needs you to take a late-clock jumper, they know where to find you.”
Finally, let’s agree on one thing – always be suspicious of stats. They don’t lie, but they don’t necessarily tell the truth either. And as a corollary – the search for a master stat is like hunting for the philosopher’s stone. There’s no stat to measure a player’s heart, or the respect he engenders from his teammates, or his willingness to take the last shot. We’re not cheering for computerized avatars on the floor, but human beings. Sometimes they fail us, but others they rise to the occasion.
Next: Should Raptors crash offensive glass, or not bother?
Final thought to Bill James: “Leadership is a hard thing to define,and there are people who think I’m betraying sabermetrics every time I mention the word, but [Joe Carter] was a player who gave the opponents nothing.” We want people like that wearing Raptors colours.