Memphis Grizzlies at Raptors: Preview & 3 keys to victory

Jan 21, 2015; Memphis, TN, USA; Memphis Grizzlies guard Mike Conley (11) goes to the basket against Toronto Raptors forward Terrence Ross (31) during the game at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 21, 2015; Memphis, TN, USA; Memphis Grizzlies guard Mike Conley (11) goes to the basket against Toronto Raptors forward Terrence Ross (31) during the game at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Memphis Grizzlies have impressed me with their resilience, but their difficulties may be too much to bear. There’s no excuse for the Raptors if they lose this game.

The Toronto Raptors finally play a home game for the first time in three weeks. That astonishing gap was created by a six-game road trip with the All-Star break in the middle. Anyway, the boys are back in town, and the Grizzlies are the opponents. Can our team bounce back after two dispiriting road defeats in succession?

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Let’s start by considering Memphis. The Grizzlies were active prior to the trade deadline (or “dudline” as Chris Sheridan dubbed last week’s non-event) and their roster is in some turmoil as a result. Their biggest problem is not personnel turnover, however; the loss of do-everything centre Marc Gasol to a broken foot has dealt a severe blow to their hopes of being a dark-horse playoff contender.

Jan 21, 2015; Memphis, TN, USA; Memphis Grizzlies forward Zach Randolph (50) shoots over Toronto Raptors center Jonas Valanciunas (17) during the game at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 21, 2015; Memphis, TN, USA; Memphis Grizzlies forward Zach Randolph (50) shoots over Toronto Raptors center Jonas Valanciunas (17) during the game at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports /

Offering an intelligent analysis of their starting five is a challenge. Coach Dave Joerger, who was whispered to be on the hot seat until his team starting winning again, has named JaMychal Green as the power forward. What I know about this guy is cribbed from the publicity sheets, and I intensely dislike passing along that kind of fluff. He’s a skinny second-year man, and has displayed surprising touch (10 of 19) from beyond the arc. Matt Barnes, a notorious pest, is the small forward. Let’s hope DeMar DeRozan can goad him into foolish behaviour and cheap, even technical, fouls. (pace, people – I know Tony Allen is the shooting guard, and therefore should be the primary cover on DD. Our man will blow by the ancient Allen, and Barnes will be reaching in, or worse.) Watch for the newly acquired Lance Stephenson (him and Barnes on the same squad – a double team of flakes) to get a bunch of minutes.

Now we come to the meat of the Grizzlies lineup: power forward (OK, he’s named at centre, but he’s really not) Zach Randolph and point guard Mike Conley. Zebo has averaged almost 20 points per game in his last four, and is clearly ready to carry additional weight in Gasol’s absence. Conley has an assist to turnover ratio of 4.01, reminiscent of Jose Calderon in his salad days as a Raptor. The man can shoot and finish at the rim as well. He’s a seriously tough cover for Kyle Lowry.

The boo-birds at Air Canada Centre will be lying in wait for Vince Carter. I expect we’ll see a lot of VC; he’s scored in double figures while playing 20+ minutes in Memphis’ last two games, both victories. Mario Chalmers will spell Conley, but he’s a steep dropoff from the starter. The rest of the bench definitely have pulses.

I think you can see already where I’m going. The Raptors, at home and facing a team grappling with injuries and the integration of new faces, should be able to take this game easily. They will if they…:

  1. …wear out Memphis’ best players. That means a bunch of early touches for Jonas Valanciunas. If Randolph has to sit down with foul trouble, the Grizz don’t have much, or any, paint protection. Similarly, make Conley run through a bunch of screens to keep up with Kyle. There’s nothing like constant banging to tire a player out.
  2. …get a decent performance from the second unit. Terrence Ross needs a bounceback game after an embarrassing outing in Chicago. Bismack Biyombo was too busy complaining about foul calls to keep his head in the game; that can’t continue.
  3. …give James Johnson some room to post up his man. JJ in space can be a useful secondary scorer, and he should be able to back down the inexperienced Green.

It’s time for a big win. Toronto 107-Memphis 92.