The biggest game of the Toronto Raptors’ season tips off tonight. Should they defeat the Cleveland Cavaliers, a great number of otherwise skeptical commentators might finally take note of our team.
For a powerhouse, the Cavaliers have had more drama than anyone could have anticipated. Has any organization ever fired a coach who took his team to within 2 wins of a championship, and then built a 30-11 record the following season? Tyronn Lue has been pressed into service, presumably because he gets along with the Alpha Male, LeBron James, and David Blatt didn’t.
With the Cavaliers lineup being as powerful as it is, one could be forgiven for thinking a fire hydrant could coach there. After King James, who’s an MVP candidate every year, they roll out Kyrie Irving, a superb point guard. Kevin Love starts at power forward, and he can crash the boards, shoot the long ball, or take it to the hole. J.R. Smith belies his ho-hum name with a deft shooting touch. He reminds me of Joe Johnson. The nominal centre is Tristan Thompson, who’s made his bones with rebounding. He’s not going to create a lot of shots for himself, but the Cavs don’t need him to.
The Cavs don’t get to the free-throw line a lot; in fact their lowly rank of 25th should be of concern to them. The Raptors average 26.6 trips per game , which is almost 5 more than Cleveland. The Cavs score more points and allow fewer than the Raptors, making them one of only four teams with a better plus/minus than our guys’ plus_4.8. The five best plus/minus rankings belong to the league’s five best teams…what a surprise.
The Cavs’ bench has just been augmented by the arrival of Channing Frye. He will command attention ouside the arc. They didn’t need a lot of help; with players like feisty (code word for dirty) guard Matthew Dellavedova, monster centre Timofey Mozgov, and savvy veterans Richard Jefferson and Mo Williams, their second unit is better than some teams’ firsts.
Cleveland is fifth in the NBA in 3-pointers attempted; their 28.2 PG is a bunch more than our 23.3, although the Raptors percentage is better. Taken together (lots of 3-pointers, not a lot of trips to the charity stripe) what emerges is a team more comfortable bombing away than getting to the hoop. Both teams are in the top ten in turnovers allowed (i.e., lower is better) proving the value of veteran point guards.
Beating this team is a monumental task. The Raptors are in with a chance if they…:
- …don’t cheat on LeBron. By that I mean James Johnson will have to do most of the heavy lifting himself. King James is a superior facilitator; I’ve seen him play lots of minutes without taking a shot. When their entire roster is scoring, the Cavs are murderous. Stay at home.
- …do what they do best on offense. Attack, then attack some more. Terrence Ross has shown more interest in getting to the basket, a development long overdue. DeMar DeRozan should find some seams. The Cavs’ rim protection is spotty.
- …get Valanciunas involved early and often. We talk about 3-point shooters being floor spacers. They are, but so can be a scoring centre. If the D is forced to collapse, and JV can dish outside, there should be open looks.
I think this game could be a slugfest, but I’m not losing faith in our guys. Toronto 112-Cleveland 109.