Raptors and 2016 NBA draft: let’s look ahead

Can the Raptors take advantage of what will be their first lottery pick since Terrence Ross in 2012?

The daily grind of trying to offer an interesting perspective on Toronto Raptors games played and to come has pushed me away from other topics, but not any longer. I’m going to take up the gauntlet of the 2016 NBA draft, and take a look at various hopefuls who might be on the board when Masai Ujiri and his entourage make their selection.

The last two drafts have netted our team Bruno Caboclo and Delon Wright, respectively, as our first-round selections. Whether either or both of them will develop into productive professionals in basketball’s toughest league cannot be known at this time.

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What’s more interesting to me is what we fans should expect from our management’s choices. Put another way, how many lottery choices become stars or (dare we hope) All-Stars? This question is of particular interest to Raptors fans because we’ve actually got a pick in that coveted group of fourteen.

Basketball analysis has never been as sophisticated as today. As a result, one might assume more recent draft classes have had greater impact, or provided fewer busts, than a decade ago. Is that a valid conclusion? An interesting post at www.realgm.com put the number of 3 All-Star calibre players per lottery “class” in my head, i.e., that’s par.

2007 – Kevin Durant, Al Horford, Joakim Noah

2008 – Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook, Kevin Love, Robin Lopez

2009 – Blake Griffin, James Harden, Stephen Curry, DeMar DeRozan

2010 – John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, Paul George

2011 – Kyrie Irving, Klay Thompson (Kawhi Leonard was #15, so just outside the lottery)

2012 – Anthony Davis, Damian Lillard, Andre Drummond

2013 – an unlucky number; no All-Stars, and little sign of any

2014 & 2015 – too early to evaluate

There it is – remarkable proof that 3 All-Stars per lottery is the magic number, fancy analytics or no. The scary part is that each lottery has produced two or three busts. [20-second timeout: I don’t want to list failed players; you’re welcome to have a look on your own. If you don’t, just trust me: each lottery has its share of Hasheem Thabeets and Jonny Flynns – and Anthony Bennetts – in the first fourteen.]

Surprisingly for someone who has headed two NBA organizations, Masai Ujiri has never made a lottery pick. He selected Kenneth Faried at #22 in 2011, Evan Fournier at #20 in 2012, and had no selection in 2013 as Raptors’ top man. Faried and Fournier have certainly worked out well given their draft ranking, which provides us hope for Bruno and Delon. Masai utilized his legendary global connections in making his picks; Faried played at Morehead State (that’s in Kentucky – I looked it up) and Fournier was on a B-level French team. Bruno was the most obscure draft pick of the last decade, from a Brazilian minor pro squad, EC Pinheiros (who count among their alumni Raptors mega-flop Rafael Araujo). Delon graduated (good man!) from Utah, which used to have a formidable hoops program but not lately. Masai has found gems in unlikely places.

This year’s lottery pick figures to be around #8, so I’ll be confining my early looks at top picks. As we approach the draft date of June 23, I’ll spend some words on late picks, since the Raptors still have their own selection. Its value in what is expected to be a weak draft is questionable.

If there’s a player you’d like my opinion on, please let me know in the Comments.