Atlanta Hawks at Raptors: Preview & 3 keys to victory

A dangerous Hawks team faces the Raptors tonight. Is this game a playoff preview?

The Toronto Raptors were able to build themselves a cushion against the Brooklyn Nets sufficient to withstand their opponents’ late comeback. If they try that stunt against a quality team like the Atlanta Hawks, the outcome will not be favourable.

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Atlanta is not enjoying a magical season like last year, where they blew past everyone’s expectations to finish a jaw-dropping 60-22. Mike Budenholzer was Coach of the Year. This year they have returned to the pack, but at 36-28 are hardly a pushover.

Dec 2, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Toronto Raptors guard DeMar DeRozan (10) is defended by Atlanta Hawks forward Paul Millsap (4) and guard Thabo Sefolosha (25) during the first half at Philips Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports /

One reason for their slippage is the return to earth of sweet-shooting Kyle Korver. Last year he fired away from beyond the arc at a ridiculous 49.2% rate. To date in 2015-16 he’s at 39.2%, which is hardly shameful but is below his career average. “Losing” almost one 3-ball per game (.9 to be precise) isn’t trivial.

The Hawks are seriously underrated as a defensive squad. Their defensive rating of 99.0 ties them with Indiana for the NBA’s second-best mark, trailing only the San Antonio

Smotherers

Spurs. Their starters are small, yet mobile, and the team ranks third in steals.

At small forward, Kent Bazemore has built a career for himself despite being undrafted out of Old Dominion. He contributes at both ends of the floor. The power forward was also undervalued coming out of college. Paul Millsap scores from under the basket to beyond the arc, pulls down a bunch of boards, and makes excellent passes. You barely notice him during the game, but his stats buckets are always full.

Jeff Teague, the point guard, seems to me to have plateaued in his career. He’s still an excellent player, with excellent speed and court vision. Atlanta management and fans don’t appear convinced he’s the man to take them into championship country. Dennis Schroder is breathing down Teague’s neck, and I’d wager one or the other will be gone before next season. In the meantime, Teague starts and is a handful.

At centre, Al Horford reminds me of Tim Duncan with his efficient front court play. He’s a 4-time All-Star who doesn’t seem to know how to take a bad shot.

The bench is a healthy mix of youth and veterans. In the latter category are pesky defender Kirk Hinrich and recently added banger Kris Humphries. Schroder is the best of the kids, while Tim Hardaway Jr. and Mike Muscala will probably get some time.

The Raptors are listing Luis Scola and James Johnson as starters, which I find tough to believe. On the assumption Norman Powell and Jason Thompson get announced again, I’m thinking the Raptors can win if they…:

…attack the basket. In what is likely to be a low-scoring match, the Raptors have a huge advantage. They average 26.8 free-throws per game, the NBA’s third highest mark, while Atlanta’s 19.9 tries is tied for 29th. Given that both teams average 78.4% from the line (I love stats!), Toronto should be seven points to the good.
…defend aggressively, yet loosely, beyond the arc. I’m aware that advice sounds contradictory; what I’m hoping to see are Raptors’ defenders playing aggressively enough to stay in front of their men, then going straight up (no fouls!) when Hawk shots go up. Their 34.7 percentage of makes is middle of the pack.
…stay sharp on D. No, I don’t need to send out a Triteness Alert. Atlanta runs a lot of ball movement and multi-screen plays in the half-court.

Next: Kyle Lowry carries Raps to W over Cavs – greatest feat in team history?

The second-half defense against Brooklyn was sound. If the Raptors maintain that level of intensity, they can win this game by a 99-95 count.

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