The Raptors hell week continues, as they face an Indiana team doing their best to nail down a playoff spot.
The Toronto Raptors had a miserable game the last time they visited Indianapolis. A repeat of that effort is definitely not in order.
The Indiana Pacers have had a choppy season, but the schedule now favours them. With 10 of their final 15 games at home, they should be comfortably in the post-season picture, and likely to be a tough out. The bounce-back year of Paul George following a dreadful leg injury is the biggest single reason for the Pacers’ resurgence, but they are getting solid play from others.
Their starting lineup doesn’t scream “contender”. Monta Ellis can certainly pour in the buckets, but he’s a mediocre defender. George Hill, at point guard, has never been my kind of player. He’s not much of a facilitator or scorer, and Kyle Lowry should be able to score on him. Ian Mahinmi hasn’t made much progress in his years in the NBA. He’s a big body who doesn’t move particularly well. He clogs the paint more than protects it. At power forward, rookie Myles Turner looks like a keeper. He’s not yet 20, but he’s started 21 games and is averaging over 10 points and 1.4 blocked shots per game . Keep an eye on this fellow.
Tucked in behind DeMar DeRozan sits Paul George, the NBA’s tenth leader scorer, who averages 23.4 points . He’s a big small forward, or a small power forward. Whatever – he’s a fine shooter from anywhere on the floor.
Indiana’s bench helps them greatly. Jordan Hill had 15 points against the Celtics in the Pacers win on Tuesday, while Lavoy Allen blocked 3 shots. C.J. Miles, who has hurt the Raptors from deep previously, is expected back from illness. Rodney Stuckey is a journeyman guard capable of big games, or of a bunch of zeroes. Their coach, Frank Vogel, gets the maximum from his talent.
Indiana’s team stats are middle of the pack, although they rank fourth in steals. They are sound at limiting the long ball, with opponents shooting 33.3%. Like the Raptors, the Pacers don’t commit a lot of fouls.
The Milwaukee game was a walk in the park compared to this one. The Raptors are capable of grabbing a win, although the likely absence of Jonas Valanciunas doesn’t augur well. To defeat Indiana, Toronto must…:
- …protect the paint, particularly from dribble-drives. Even if Miles can play, Indiana is not a threat from beyond the arc. Ellis is a huge pain, and his efforts must be contested without fouling. That’s a tall order.
- …get defensive support from our swingmen. This is like 1(b), rather than its own bullet. Indiana wants to get defenses running around, one step behind the ball. Bismack Biyombo can’t play the entire game. Terrence Ross and Patrick Patterson will be counted on heavily to keep opposing penetrators outside.
- …display patience and ball control on offense. Indiana wants to use their quickness and ball hawkery to get runouts. The Pacers’ Pace (sorry, couldn’t resist) rating is 99.17, way ahead of the Raptors.
Another scrambled lineup game…can the return of DeMar DeRozan from his one-game vacation provide a tonic for the Raptors? Without a lot of confidence, I’ll call Toronto 101-Indiana 98.