Can Raptors catch Cleveland Cavaliers? Should they try?

Apr 1, 2016; Memphis, TN, USA; Toronto Raptors guard Kyle Lowry (7) and guard DeMar DeRozan (10) look on during the second half against the Memphis Grizzlies at FedExForum. Toronto beat Memphis 99-95. Mandatory Credit: Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 1, 2016; Memphis, TN, USA; Toronto Raptors guard Kyle Lowry (7) and guard DeMar DeRozan (10) look on during the second half against the Memphis Grizzlies at FedExForum. Toronto beat Memphis 99-95. Mandatory Credit: Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports

The Raptors are solidly positioned in second place. Should they risk injury and fatigue by striving to overtake the Cavaliers?

Your Scribe took a brief run at this topic a few weeks ago. At that time, I concluded the Toronto Raptors’ chances of overhauling the Cleveland Cavaliers for first place in the Eastern Conference weren’t great, and the price for trying was too high. I’m now leaning in the other direction.

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Let’s think Big Picture for a moment. How valuable is it to the Raptors to have home court advantage until the NBA Finals, and face the #8 seed in the first round? Should the Raptors remain in second place and win their first two rounds, the only series in which not having home court hurts is the Eastern Finals, if that series goes to seven games, and if the opponent is Cleveland. Despite two if-statements, that’s actually a likely scenario.

Nov 25, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; A fan tries to distract Cleveland Cavaliers forward LeBron James (23) as he shoots a free throw against the Toronto Raptors at Air Canada Centre. The Raptors beat the Cavaliers 103-99. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 25, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; A fan tries to distract Cleveland Cavaliers forward LeBron James (23) as he shoots a free throw against the Toronto Raptors at Air Canada Centre. The Raptors beat the Cavaliers 103-99. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports

That’s one point for finishing first. What’s the physical price to be paid for the Raptors to catch the Cavaliers? I’m on shaky ground here, as we can only guess the health of Toronto’s core group. Kyle Lowry’s shooting elbow is bothering him more than a little. He may need to sit out a game.

Terrence Ross seemed fine to me on Wednesday night against Atlanta, and hit four 3-balls against Memphis, so we can assume he’s OK and hope his delicate thumb won’t get re-injured. Likewise Jonas Valanciunas appears 100%, but with two injuries this season to his left hand, coach Dwane Casey must be careful with the big man’s minutes.

DeMarre Carroll claims he’ll be back before the playoffs. If that’s true, he’s going to need considerable time with the first unit to get reconnected.

Cleveland is suddenly within striking distance for the Raptors for two reasons, and here’s the first: the Cavaliers’ schedule is mean and nasty to the end. They have six games to play, all but one of them against teams over .500 and scrapping for a playoff spot. [20-second timeout: The Cavaliers beat the Hawks last night in Overtime. Boo, hiss! Cleveland is now 2.5 games clear of the Raptors.]

The second is more nebulous, but here goes: whatever chemistry the Cavaliers have established in the locker room has largely dissipated, according to numerous press reports recently. In particular, LeBron James appears to dislike the play and personality of Kevin Love, and there is a lot of noise about Kyrie Irving’s unwillingness to share the ball.

OK, so how about the Raptors schedule? With seven games to play, Toronto’s schedule can hardly be described as a cakewalk, what with visits to San Antonio and Atlanta, and homies against Charlotte and Indiana, on tap. Every one of those teams is playoff-bound. But the season’s last 3 games see our team facing the Nets, Knicks and 76ers. Their combined record? 61-168, as of today.

An optimistic though plausible scenario sees the Raptors finishing 5-2 and the Cavaliers 2-4. Both teams would finish with 56-26 records, and Toronto would be seeded first by virtue of having won the season series 2-1.

“Hope for the best, plan for the worst.” Tonight’s game against the Spurs is a throwaway for the Raptors, particularly given the aches and pains from the Memphis game. I hope coach Dwane Casey rests a bunch of our starters. The Raptors don’t play again until Tuesday, so the break would be helpful. Besides, it’s the Spurs – they haven’t lost at home all year.

Next: A playoff-ready Power Forward realignment?

If the Cavs get stung by the Hornets on Sunday, things should get very interesting. Pedal to the metal.

There’s another reason why finishing first has value. But we’ll save that thought for a few days.