Playoff Seedings and Raptors – Why being #1 matters

While there appears little difference for the Raptors between finishing first or second, there is value for them in ending on top.

My final appeal for the Toronto Raptors to finish first in the NBA’s Eastern Conference starts now.

We need to understand how the NBA playoff matchups work, because it’s not straightforward. Eight teams in each Conference make the post-season. Series A pits the regular season’s top team against the worst qualifier, so 1 Versus [V] 8. Series B is 2 V 7, C is 3 V 6, and D is 4 V5. So far, so good.

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Let’s assume for the sake of argument that the top seed beats #8, but #7 upsets #2, #3 beats #6, and #5 outlasts #4. In a world of seedings only, the next round would see #1 V #7, and #3 V#5. But that’s not how it works. In Round 2 in the NBA, A plays D, and B plays C. In our example, 1 V 5, and 7 V 3, and in all cases the first-numbered team has home-court advantage.

Mar 26, 2016; New Orleans, LA, USA; Toronto Raptors guard Norman Powell (24) dunks the ball while defended by New Orleans Pelicans forward Dante Cunningham (44) during the second half of a game at the Smoothie King Center. The Raptors defeated the Pelicans 115-91. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

In effect, a victory by the lower-seeded team usurps the higher one’s ranking, so the sins of a lacklustre season can be wiped away (too easily, in my curmudgeonly view. The playoffs are the “second season”, so I understand the reasoning, but it still makes me grumble. The format certainly gives hope to underdogs, since they don’t remain that way if they get out of the first round.) Should chalk (i.e., the expected form) prevail, 1 plays 4, and 2 plays 3, in either format.

Assuming the Raptors grab first overall, which is a long shot I know, the true benefit accrues in the second round. The # 4 and #5 teams are likely to tear each other apart in the first round. After all, the difference between these teams, whoever they are, is negligible. At the moment, the four teams sitting 3 through 7 have 44, 44, 45 and 44 wins. Anyone can beat anyone.

Let the other series go seven nasty games. I’d much rather see our team have a 4-day break after eliminating Detroit(?) in 5 games. If the Raptors are healthy and well-rested entering the second round, I like our chances against whoever emerges from the dogfight.

The Raptors are profoundly and positively affected by their fans. Toronto’s home record is 29-9. While a 22-15 mark as the visiting team is hardly shabby, we’d all feel much more comfortable with every game 1 (and any game 7 needed) at the Air Canada Centre.

Dwane Casey will need to maintain a delicate balance during the remaining two weeks of this successful season. If the Cavaliers are still in sight by this time next week, I hope he’ll make every effort to catch them. Otherwise, he must ensure DeMarre Carroll gets re-integrated into the lineup without overworking his All-Stars (Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan…but you knew that).

There’s another interesting dynamic at play here, which is what does Casey do with Norman Powell? Carroll has never played with him. We’ll consider starting-five adjustments shortly.

Brian Boake is Senior Editor for Raptors Rapture. “Like” Raptors Rapture on Facebook and follow us on Twitter @RaptorsRapture for all the latest news and updates about the best damn NBA team from Canada.