Can Raptors DeMarre Carroll play power forward in the playoffs?

The Raptors’ Carroll may be needed at Power Forward in the post-season. Can he handle the role?

DeMarre Carroll returned to action last week and just in time for the NBA playoffs.

The return of the Toronto Raptors’ top acquisition in 2015 free agency brings hope that he can further bolster the Raptors’ vastly improved defense. After playing a key role on the Atlanta Hawks last season, the Raptors signed Carroll to a 4 year, $60 million contract.

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Given his length and size (6’8”, 212 lbs.) and a reputation as a stout defender, Carroll could serve as an excellent option as a small ball power forward. While only a small sample size exists, early returns of Carroll at the four are promising. The Raptors, however, must take care not to sacrifice interior defense for offensive flexibility by employing a smaller lineup.

Unfortunately, injuries have plagued Carroll’s first season with Toronto. Arthroscopic surgery to repair a knee contusion reduced Carroll to playing only 23 games in the regular season. When he has been healthy, he has struggled to establish his same form as last season with Atlanta.

This regular season, Carroll graded negatively using ESPN’s Real Plus Minus metric (-1.01), which accounts for a player’s impact on a team when he is on or off the court. While posting a positive defensive RPM (+0.59), his offense proved to be a liability (-1.6). A positive real plus minus score indicates that a player is contributing to their team’s victory, while a negative rating suggests the team plays better with the player off the floor. Carroll’s RPM suggests he contributes to the Raptors’ defense but adversely affects the offense.

Even his strength, defense, may not be as strong this season. According to NBA.com’s defensive tracking stats, in 23 games Carroll was slightly worse than average as a defender; opponents shot 0.5% better than average when Carroll matched up against them. Carroll best defended outside shots, but struggled to defend inside shots, allowing opponents to shoot 5.7% better than average on shots less than 10 feet from the basket.

That Carroll hasn’t defended inside shots well could be incredibly important if the Raptors intend to use him as a stretch four in their playoff run. With teams valuing a power forward who can shoot threes and defend inside, Carroll’s size, length, and reputation as defender make him an intriguing option at power forward for Toronto, yet perhaps not an effective one.

While 2015-16 hasn’t been kind to Carroll, his performance in the Atlanta Hawks’ 2015 conference finals against Cleveland remains quite impressive. Most frequently matched against LeBron James, he forced his matchup to shoot 10.1% worse than their average. In fact, his entire playoffs were impressive, as he forced opponents to shoot 2.5% worse than average, while averaging 2 points more per game than in the regular season.

Carroll’s playoff performance likely caused the Raptors organization and fans to consider him as a small ball power forward. Due to his limited time on the court this season, there may not be enough data to determine conclusively if Carroll fits that role effectively, but the early returns show promise.

Of the Raptors’ 50 most used lineups, according to NBA.com’s lineup tracking stats, only three feature Carroll at the four and none registered more than 36 minutes together in the regular season. These lineups are listed in the table below.

While the Raptors employed none of these lineups frequently, two of the three lineups posted positive plus/minus point differentials, an important indicator of a lineup’s success. These stats suggest that Carroll as a small ball power forward could be effective during the playoffs, especially in small stretches.

Dwane Casey should be cautious, however, not to jeopardize the Raptors defense around the rim and in the paint. The team’s centers and power forwards have admirably defended down low and inserting a smaller player at power forward could reduce the frontcourt defense’s effectiveness. The Raptors rank as the best defense in the NBA against shots of less than 10 feet, but Carroll struggles to defend from that range. Subbing Carroll for a power forward like Patrick Patterson could compromise one of Toronto’s biggest strengths.

Casey has a good problem on his hands – inserting a playoff-tested, well-respected player into an already strong lineup. Nevertheless, Carroll’s return may not occur without some growing pains. Players must assimilate his skill set into the team, and the coaching staff must find the best ways to deploy Carroll.