In the second season, the Raptors will need to make their long balls, and minimize opponents’. Here’s proof of the importance of the 3-ball.
In the NBA this season, teams are averaging more three-point attempts (24.0) and three-point makes (8.5) per game than ever before in league history. The long range shot has become an increasingly important offensive weapon in any team’s arsenal. This has naturally lead to teams placing more credence in defending the three-pointer. Outscoring your opponent from three is an effective marker to indicate success. This season, fifteen teams have a positive differential for threes made and twelve of them are in the playoffs.
Ironically the Toronto Raptors are one of the four playoff teams who have surrendered more three-point field goals than they have made. Despite overcoming this to find great success in the regular season, winning the three-point battle in the playoffs will be paramount for them winning round one.
The biggest reason for the Raptors offensive success this season has been their ability to draw fouls and get easy points from the free throw line. Toronto is second in free throw attempts (27.0) and makes (21.0) per game.
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Toronto’s offense relies on these foul shots to get points, especially their All-Star backcourt of DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry. They are fourth in the league with 33.8% of their points coming from the free throw line.
The Raptors will need to look to the three point arc to make up for the potential lost points they are accustomed to getting from fouls. Fortunately the team has the long range firepower to do so. Toronto is fourth in the league this year in three point percentage. They shoot 37% from deep and have six players with at least 75 three point attempts who also shoot north of 36%.
The offensive spacing that is created by having multiple deep threats on the floor is essential for this team. Luis Scola, with his newly discovered three point shot, and Patrick Patterson ensure Toronto has a “stretch four” on the court for forty-eight minutes. This allows its top usage player in DeRozan to do what he does best, which is drive to the rim. DeMar has been masterful this season in finding any available driving lanes to force his way into the paint and score. He leads the NBA with 11.7 drives per game and scores a league leading 8.7 points per game off drives.
In the post-season, teams scout their opponent more acutely than in the regular season. This leads to players keying in on the other team’s play calls and tendencies to better equip them to stop your first or even second option on a play. The Indiana Pacers in the first round will no doubt try to take away Toronto’s ability to drive into the paint to either score or draw a foul. Toronto will have to trust the pass and kick the ball out to a spot up shooter instead of forcing up a contested look like they have often done this year. They must look to take advantage of their excellent efficiency on catch and shoot jumpers. The Raptors have a three-point percentage of 39.9 on such shots, ranking them second behind only the Warriors.
While the Eastern Conference’s second seed this season has the skill to efficiently score the three point shot, they have struggled mightily in defending against it. They are twenty-ninth in the league in terms of opponent three point percentage. They allow their foes to shoot 37.2% from three.
Toronto’s defense has significantly improved from last year, but this is largely due to their ability to defend the paint. Dwane Casey has opted to send multiple help defenders inside while abandoning their man on the perimeter on any penetration. The players have been able to rotate out on the first pass out but opponents have invariably found an open shooter with the second or third pass. This is why the Raptors have forced opposing players to shoot 2.3% worse than their season average within six feet of the basket, good for sixth best in the league. Teams are shooting 2.0% better than their average from beyond the arc, which ranks twenty-ninth.
The Raptors have earned home-court advantage in the playoffs for the third straight year. They need to win their second playoff round in twenty-one years to extend the greatest season in franchise history. Toronto will have to prevent Indiana from killing them with the three ball and conversely use it offensively themselves to emerge victorious the first round.